Flash Flood Warning 4, NWS El Paso, TX

000 
WGUS74 KEPZ 090255
FFSEPZ

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX
854 PM MDT TUE MAY 8 2007

NMC013-090301-
DONA ANA NM-
854 PM MDT TUE MAY 8 2007

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 900 PM MDT FOR NORTHWESTERN
DONA ANA COUNTY...

THE HEAVIEST RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS 
THAT HAS PASSED THROUGH NORTHERN DONA ANA COUNTY...HAVE NOW PUSHED 
OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE GARFIELD...SALEM AND HATCH AREAS. 
AS SUCH...THE IMMEDIATE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING HAS SUBSIDED...AND 
THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN HUDSPETH COUNTY WILL BE 
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 900 PM MDT.

CONTINUE TO BE CAUTIOUS WHEN DRIVING IN THE AREA...AS 
LESS-WIDESPREAD FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS AND LOW LYING AREAS MAY 
CONTINUE. NEVER DRIVE YOUR AUTOMOBILE THROUGH WATER. TURN AROUND... 
DONT DROWN.

LAT...LON 3278 10726 3278 10710 3269 10702 3266 10708
      3266 10713 3264 10715 3264 10720 3262 10728
      3277 10728

$$
PIEPER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
238 PM MDT TUE MAY 8 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE BORDERLAND THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING. WITH THUNDERSTORMS HEAVY RAIN...SMALL HAIL AND STRONG
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE. THERE IS A ALSO A CHANCE FOR FLOODING IN
EXTREME WESTERN TEXAS AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. THURSDAY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION...DRYING AND WARMING THINGS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH SITTING ACROSS ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO INTO
COLORADO. WITH THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW AND INSTABILITY
PRESENT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY.
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO LOOK FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH GOOD
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...DEEP CAPE AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE. GOLF BALL
SIZE HAIL MAY BE REPEATED TODAY WITH THE VERY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS.

HAVE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH OUT FOR THE EAST COUNTIES IN THE CWA AS
PW VALUES OF .65 FROM THIS MORNING ARE ABOUT 170% OF NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE GREATEST
INSTABILITY SOUTH OF THE BORDER WITH CORFIDI VECTORS STEERING THE
STORMS NORTHEAST. HAVE LEFT THE WESTERN COUNTIES OUT OF THE WATCH AS
THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY THERE DO NOT LOOK AS FAVORABLE. THAT
BEING SAID...ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED OUT WEST OF
THE RIVER.

THIS WAVE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY. AS A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE EXITING LOW...THINGS WILL
DRY AND WARM. THIS RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 09/00Z-10/00Z.
SCT TSTMS WILL DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF NEW MEXICO AND EASTERN ARIZONA
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF TWEB ROUTE 195 AND ALL OF ROUTE 196. CONDITIONS WILL
GENERALLY BE VFR...BUT EXPECT MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
GUSTY WINDS...POSSIBLE HAIL AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS NEAR ANY TSTMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 51  78  54  87  59 /  30  20  10   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA TX        49  71  51  85  55 /  40  30  20   0   0
LAS CRUCES              51  77  54  88  58 /  30  20  10   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              47  75  52  84  55 /  30  20  20   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              36  56  39  63  42 /  40  30  20   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   49  75  51  84  55 /  30  20  10   0   0
SILVER CITY             45  71  49  77  51 /  40  20  10   0   0
DEMING                  51  80  52  89  56 /  30  10  10   0   0
LORDSBURG               49  81  52  90  56 /  30  10  10   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NMZ024-025-032.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR TXZ055-056.

&&

23/21

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
200 AM MDT TUE MAY 8 2007

NMZ022>025-030>032-TXZ055-056-091245-
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/LOWER GILA REGION-SIERRA COUNTY LAKES REGION-
TULAROSA BASIN/SOUTHERN DESERT-SOUTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS-
SOUTHWEST DESERT/BOOTHEEL-SOUTHWEST DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN-
SOUTHERN DESERT-EL PASO-HUDSPETH-
200 AM MDT TUE MAY 8 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO...SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
STRONGEST ACTIVITY WILL BE EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE WITH A FEW STORMS
PRODUCING HAIL OVER AN INCH IN DIAMETER ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS TO 40
MPH. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS POSSIBLE WITH OVER AN INCH OF RAIN FALLING
AND PRODUCING FLOODING OVER ISOLATED LOCATIONS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAINS
...WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE REQUIRED THROUGH THIS EVENING...MAINLY
EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE.

ROGASH