Flash Flood Warning 27, NWS El Paso, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
320 PM MDT WED AUG 1 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL GENERATE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOME FLOOD PRONE AREAS IN AND
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY. DAY TIME
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMALS DUE TO INCREASED MOISTURE AND
CLOUDINESS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WET COUPLE OF DAYS IN STORE FOR THE CWA AS TROPICAL AIRMASS REMAINS
IN PLACE. WILL CONTINUE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ENTIRE AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. HAVE ALREADY ISSUED FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS THIS
AFTERNOON FOR SOME AREAS AS SHORT LIVED BUT INTENSE RAINFALL HAS
OCCURRED IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS. SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS ARE
DUMPING 1-2 INCHES IN LESS THAN ONE HOUR. PWS ARE ABOUT 1.5 TO 1.8
INCHES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. NOT A LOT OF
HEATING BUT THE ATMOSPHERE DOESNT NEED MUCH TODAY. BOTH NAM/GFS
INITIALIZE VORT CENTER/LOW OVER WEST TEXAS BUT THEN DIFFER WITH
MOVEMENT. NAM MOVES THE LOW SLOWLY NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
THE GFS KEEPS THE LOW NEARLY STATIONARY TONIGHT AND THEN DRIFTS BACK
OVER THE BIG BEND REGION ON THURSDAY. GFS SOLUTION WOULD PROBABLY
LEAVE BEST FLOOD POTENTIAL OVER THE SOUTHEAST CWA WHILE THE NAM
WOULD SUGGEST FLOOD POTENTIAL MORE BROADLY OVER THE CWA. WILL
CONTINUE FFA THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

BY FRIDAY BEST SUPPORT FOR THUNDERSTORMS/FLOODING WILL HAVE MOVED
WEST. STILL GOOD ENVIRONMENT FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THOUGH
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GFS SHOWING SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT BY
MONDAY...AND BY TUESDAY TO THE SOUTHWEST AS WEAK UPPER LOW LIFTS OUT
OF ARIZONA NORTHWARD. COULD POSSIBLY BE LOOKING AT STRONG/SEVERE
STORM SITUATION WITH STRONGER VERTICAL SHEAR...BUT AT THIS TIME
LIKELY WOULD BE LIMITED TO THE FAR WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 02/00Z-03/00Z...
AREAS OF MVFR AND IFR FOR CIGS AND VSBY IN AND NEAR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOW CIGS NEAR TSTMS WILL OCNLY HAVE MTN TOPS OBSCD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 70  90  71  87  69 /  60  50  50  40  40
SIERRA BLANCA TX        67  86  66  84  63 /  60  50  50  40  40
LAS CRUCES              67  91  68  88  66 /  60  50  50  40  40
ALAMOGORDO              66  88  67  86  64 /  60  50  50  40  40
CLOUDCROFT              49  69  49  66  47 /  60  60  60  50  50
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   67  88  68  86  65 /  60  50  50  40  40
SILVER CITY             61  80  62  80  60 /  60  50  50  40  40
DEMING                  68  90  69  86  66 /  60  50  50  40  40
LORDSBURG               67  89  68  86  65 /  60  50  50  40  40

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
NMZ022>025-030>032.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR TXZ055-056.

&&

17 HEFNER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1110 AM MDT WED AUG 1 2007

NMZ022>025-030>032-TXZ055-056-021745-
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/LOWER GILA REGION-SIERRA COUNTY LAKES REGION-
TULAROSA BASIN/SOUTHERN DESERT-SOUTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS-
SOUTHWEST DESERT/BOOTHEEL-SOUTHWEST DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN-
SOUTHERN DESERT-EL PASO-HUDSPETH-
1110 AM MDT WED AUG 1 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO...SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH
HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE OVER THE AREA. ISOLATED AREAS COULD RECEIVE
TWO TO THREE INCHES...WITH FLOODING POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH AREAS OF HEAVY
RAINS POSSIBLE THURSDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED FRIDAY AND BEYOND WITH THREAT OF FLOODING DECREASING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ACTIVATION WILL BE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY TO MONITOR HEAVY
RAINS AND FLOODING.