Flash Flood Warning 25, NWS El Paso, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
344 AM MDT WED AUG 1 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL GENERATE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOME FLOOD PRONE AREAS IN
AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. DAY TIME TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMALS DUE TO INCREASED MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A WET WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A
STEADY INFLUX OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS
HAS RESULTED IN A VERY MOIST AIR MASS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
RAINFALL FROM SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE ATMOSPHERE
IS MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENOUGH THAT ANY PERTURBATION COULD TRIGGER
CONVECTION. HIGH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S AND PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES NEAR 170 PERCENT OF NORMAL ARE INDICATIVE OF A MOISTURE
LADEN ATMOSPHERE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL. WHILE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL VARY WIDELY ACROSS THE REGION...RAIN FROM
SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING
IN SOME FLOOD PRONE AREAS. THE PREVIOUSLY ISSUED FLASH FLOOD WATCH
REMAINS VALID THROUGH THURSDAY.

MODELS DUE DIFFER ON THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW ON FRIDAY WITH THE
GFS FORCING IT SOUTHWARD AND THE NAM MODEL DRIFTING IT SLOWLY
WESTWARD ACROSS THE STATE INTO ARIZONA BY FRIDAY EVENING. BOTH
SCENARIOS WOULD SEEM TO INDICATE A DRIER PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND
WITH MORE ISOLATED TYPE THUNDERSTORMS. LONGER RANGE MODELS BEGIN
TO CONCENTRATE THE MOISTURE PLUME OVER EASTERN AZ AND WESTERN NEW
MEXICO IN A MORE CLASSIC MONSOONAL PATTERN FOR THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT...THERE COULD BE AN ONGOING HEAVY RAINFALL
POTENTIAL ALONG THE AXIS OF DEEPEST MOISTURE FOR THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 01/12Z-02/12Z
AREAS OF MVFR AND IFR FOR CIGS AND VSBY IN AND NEAR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOW CIGS NEAR TSTMS WILL OCNLY HAVE MTN TOPS OBSCD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 88  69  90  70  87 /  60  60  50  50  40
SIERRA BLANCA TX        81  65  82  64  83 /  60  60  50  50  40
LAS CRUCES              89  66  91  67  89 /  50  60  50  50  40
ALAMOGORDO              87  64  89  65  87 /  50  60  50  50  40
CLOUDCROFT              68  49  68  49  67 /  60  60  60  60  50
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   89  65  89  66  89 /  40  60  50  50  40
SILVER CITY             79  61  80  62  81 /  40  60  50  50  40
DEMING                  88  66  91  67  87 /  50  60  50  50  40
LORDSBURG               89  65  90  66  87 /  50  60  50  50  40

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR NMZ022>025-
     030>032.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR TXZ055-056.

&&

04/04

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1110 AM MDT WED AUG 1 2007

NMZ022>025-030>032-TXZ055-056-021745-
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/LOWER GILA REGION-SIERRA COUNTY LAKES REGION-
TULAROSA BASIN/SOUTHERN DESERT-SOUTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS-
SOUTHWEST DESERT/BOOTHEEL-SOUTHWEST DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN-
SOUTHERN DESERT-EL PASO-HUDSPETH-
1110 AM MDT WED AUG 1 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO...SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH
HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE OVER THE AREA. ISOLATED AREAS COULD RECEIVE
TWO TO THREE INCHES...WITH FLOODING POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH AREAS OF HEAVY
RAINS POSSIBLE THURSDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED FRIDAY AND BEYOND WITH THREAT OF FLOODING DECREASING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ACTIVATION WILL BE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY TO MONITOR HEAVY
RAINS AND FLOODING.