Severe Thunderstorm Warning 109, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
740 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

...UPDATED AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY IS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND
FLOODING DURING THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

NEGATIVELY TILLED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA SOUTHEAST
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES. A STRONG EAST PACIFIC JET IS THE
DRIVING FORCE BEHIND THE TROUGH...WITH IT STRETCHING FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS. THE STRONG JET WILL
WILL BEGIN TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVERNIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS
THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME CUTOFF AS COLD AIR BOMBS INTO THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH. THE SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHEAST RAPIDLY THURSDAY...BUT BECOME
FAIRLY VERTICALLY STACKED AS IT DOES.

CLOSER TO HOME...PERIODS OF CONVECTION HAVE BEEN MOVING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THIS HAS LEFT MUCH...BUT NOT
ALL...OF THE CWA UNDER CLOUDY SKIES WITH COOL TEMPERATURES. THE
EXCEPTION TO THIS IS IN AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A WARM FRONT
ORIENTED FROM NORTH OF COLUMBIA TO MARSHALL SOUTHWEST TO NORTH OF
JOPLIN. HOWEVER...THE THUNDERSTORM LINE SEGMENT TRACKING ALONG THE
WARM FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MOST COUNTIES IN OUR FORECAST
AREA...IS LEAVING BEHIND A CONSIDERABLE COLD POOL. EFFECTIVELY
STABILIZING THE AIRMASS BEHIND IT BY PUSHING THE EFFECTIVE FRONT
BACK TO THE SOUTH. HOWEVER...SEVERE WEATHER RANGING FROM DAMAGING
WINDS...TO TORNADOES CONTINUES TO LOOKS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHERN
EDGE OF OUR FORECAST AREA WHERE THE LEADING STORM WILL INTERACT WITH
THE WARM FRONT.

STORMS TO OUR SOUTHWEST WILL FOLLOW THE LEADING STORM INTO EASTERN
KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI...BUT THERE SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE
CONDITIONAL. THE MESO HIGH DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE LEADING
STORM...UNDER THE RAIN SHIELD...WILL PUSH EAST. AS THIS OCCURS THE
THE HIGH MIGHT PINCH OFF THE INCOMING UNSTABLE AIR MOVING THIS WAY
FROM EASTERN OKLAHOMA. HOWEVER...IF THE MESO HIGH SLOWS THEN THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SEVERE ACTIVITY THROUGH THE MID EVENING
HOURS.

OVERNIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY...CONVECTION WILL COME TO AN END AS DRY
AIR ALOFT PUSHES INTO EAST CENTRAL KANSAS AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI.
ACROSS AREAS FROM INTERSTATE 70 NORTH...SOME RAIN SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE LOW GETS
WRAPPED UP AND LIFTS NORTHEAST. NOT CONVINCED THAT THE
PRECIPITATION THAT THE MODELS ARE FORECASTING IN THE WRAP AROUND
WILL OCCUR...BUT WITH -18 DEGREE TEMPERATURES MOVING IN ALOFT AT H5
I CAN NOT RULE THE PRECIP OUT.

OF MORE CONCERN FOR THURSDAY WILL BE THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT SOUTH OF THE SURFACE LOW. THE H8 JET OF 50KTS WILL BE
MOVING ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS INTO MISSOURI DURING THE DAY. SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONE SHOULD BE GOOD ENOUGH FOR SURFACE WINDS
BETWEEN 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH. WITH CLOUD COVER EXPECTED
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY...THOUGHTS ARE THAT WE
WILL STAY BELOW CRITERIA. HOWEVER...IF ANY AREA CAN CLEAR THE CLOUDS
AND GET A BIT HIGHER WINDS FROM MOMENTUM TRANSFER...IT WOULD BE
LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM PAOLA AND HARRISONVILLE
EAST TO SEDALIA.

AFTER THE LAST OF THE RAIN CHANCES MOVES OUT THURSDAY OUR ATTENTION
FOR OUR NEXT SHOT OF PRECIPITATION WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY AS ANOTHER PROGRESSIVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE CONUS. MODELS
CONTINUE TO JUMP ALL OF THE PLACE WITH THE TIMING AND CHARACTER OF
THE TROUGH...CUTTING IT OFF ONE RUN ONLY TO OPEN IT BACK UP THE
NEXT...SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH. HOWEVER...CONSENSUS AMONG THE
MODELS STILL POINTS AT A FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY WITH
POST FRONTAL PRECIPITATION. HAVE CONTINUED TO FOCUS THE PRECIP
CHANCES INTO THE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY TIME FRAME AS A RESULT.

CUTTER

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...LEADING WAVE OF CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED RAIN
SHIELD HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE TERMINALS. HOWEVER...SECOND WAVE OF
STORMS...IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS...IS MOVING RAPIDLY NORTHEAST. CURRENT
TIMING HAS THE THUNDERSTORM LINE INTO THE TERMINALS AROUND 02Z. THE
DISCREET APPEARANCE OF THE STORMS ON RADAR CURRENTLY HAVE PROMPTED
ME TO LIMIT THE RAIN AND TSRA IN THE TAF TO A TWO HOUR WINDOW FROM
02Z-04Z. CONVECTION AFTER THIS SECOND LINE IS NOT A SURE BET...
GIVEN THE DRY AIR ALOFT THAT IS PROGGED TO PUSH INTO WEST MO. WILL
LEAVE IT TO LATER SHIFTS TO ADD MORE PRECIP IF NEEDED.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT GUSTY WINDS TOMORROW AS THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS
INTO IA AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ACROSS NORTHERN MO.

CUTTER

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM THURSDAY FOR MOZ001-MOZ002-
    MOZ003-MOZ004-MOZ005-MOZ006-MOZ007-MOZ011-MOZ012-
    MOZ013-MOZ014-MOZ015-MOZ016-MOZ020-MOZ021-MOZ022-MOZ023-
    MOZ024-MOZ028-MOZ029-MOZ030-MOZ031-MOZ032-MOZ037-MOZ038-
    MOZ039-MOZ043-MOZ044-MOZ053.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM THURSDAY FOR KSZ025-KSZ057-KSZ060-
     KSZ102-KSZ103-KSZ104-KSZ105.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
116 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-181100-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-
JOHNSON KS-ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-
PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-
BUCHANAN-CLINTON-CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-
RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-
CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
116 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL
AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY DURING THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS
THE OUTLOOK AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH THE STRENGTH OF
THE STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED WIND FIELDS...SOME OF THESE STORMS
MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN
BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ISOLATED
TORNADOES AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. AREAS
MOST THREATENED BY SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
50...JUST NORTH OF A WARM FRONT THAT IS STRETCHED FROM CENTRAL
MISSOURI THROUGH SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A DRYLINE ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IF SUFFICIENT SUNSHINE IS
ACHIEVED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS...THEN THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...INCLUDING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES WILL EXIST...MAINLY SOUTH OF AN OLATHE KANSAS TO SEDALIA
MISSOURI LINE.

OTHERWISE...MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG WITH THE THREAT
FOR TRAINING STORMS COULD AFFECT A LARGE PART OF THE OUTLOOK AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WITH ALREADY SATURATED GROUNDS AND HIGH RIVER
LEVELS...ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING AND OR RIVER
FLOODING TO OCCUR.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

ANOTHER STRONG STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS
AND HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE REGION ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED FOR AREAS IN LINN COUNTY KANSAS AND
BATES MISSOURI FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL
SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED FARTHER NORTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50.

CUTTER

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