River Flood Warning 169, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
613 AM CDT THU OCT 18 2007

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 405 AM CDT THU OCT 18 2007/

DISCUSSION...
MAIN WEATHER FEATURE AFFECTING THE CWFA TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE
THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL OF THE COUNTRY. THIS
MORNING...UPPER JET ROUNDING THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...WHILE A STRONG PACIFIC JET PLUNGES INTO
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WITH SUCH A STRONG JET STRUCTURE EXPECT THIS
UPPER LOW TO CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND STAY QUITE DYNAMIC AS IT LIFTS
TO THE NORTHEAST INTO MINNESOTA BY THIS EVENING. ENOUGH SUNSHINE IN
SOUTHEAST HALF OF FORECAST AREA MAY CONTRIBUTE TO THE INSTABILITY
AND DEPENDING ON TIMING OF THE NEXT VORT LOBE WRAPPING AROUND THIS
UPPER LOW...MAY HELP TO INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS IN THAT AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. ALSO EXPECT SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO BE
COMING INTO THE NORTHWEST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON IN REGION OF MID
LEVEL LIFT OCCURRING WITH THE 700 MB FRONT. THINK CHANCES OF THUNDER
WILL NOT BE AS GREAT IN THAT AREA...AS SOUNDINGS SHOWING ONLY A
SKINNY AREA OF CAPE BEING REALIZED FOR A SHORT TIME THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH MIGHT PRODUCE SOME SMALL HAIL IF STORMS CAN GET
GOING.

ALSO SHOULD BE PRETTY BREEZY TODAY AS THE SURFACE LOW TO OUR NORTH
DEEPENS AND SOUNDINGS SHOW 20 TO 30 KTS OF WIND ABOVE 925 MB
STARTING TO MIX DOWN BY LATE MORNING.

BY TONIGHT...UPPER LOW LIFTING FAR ENOUGH OUT OF THE REGION...TO
FINALLY END THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION BY LATE EVENING. AFTER
THAT...BRIEF PERIOD OF UPPER RIDGING WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE A WARM UP
INTO SATURDAY. THEN NEXT STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL HEAD TOWARD THE
REGION LATER IN THE WEEKEND. MODELS NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT AS YET AS
TO WHAT THIS SHORT WAVE WILL DO...WHETHER A PORTION WILL DEEPEN AND
CUT OFF AND THE ECMWF SHOWS...OR WILL IT STAY PROGRESSIVE AND REACH
THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS THE GFS DEPICT. GIVEN
THE STRONG JET STRUCTURE...WOULD LEAN TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION.
WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST AT THIS POINT...AND GIVE
THE MODELS ANOTHER CHANCE TO COME TO MORE OF A CONSENSUS.

PC

&&

.AVIATION...

UPPER LOW VERY PREVALENT ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA WITH CLOUD DECK
WRAPPING ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS. EXPECTING THIS DECK TO OVERSPREAD
THE TERMINALS DURING THE DAY WITH CHANCES OF RAIN BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. OTHER MAIN CONCERN WILL BE WITH WINDS BY LATE THIS MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WILL LIKELY SEE SUSTAINED NEAR 20MPH WITH
GUSTS ABOVE 30MPH BY MID AFTERNOON. UPPER SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN EXITING
BY THIS EVENING WITH WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDING THROUGH THE NIGHT.

DEROCHE

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
556 AM CDT THU OCT 18 2007

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-191100-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-
JOHNSON KS-ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-
PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-
BUCHANAN-CLINTON-CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-
RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-
CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
556 AM CDT THU OCT 18 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL
AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL BE OCCURRING TODAY WITH SOME GUSTS
IN THE 35 MPH RANGE POSSIBLE. WITH A STRONG STORM SYSTEM OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
KANSAS AND INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI MAY BE STRONGER IF ENOUGH SUNSHINE
OCCURS TO WARM TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. THESE
STORMS WOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH SMALL
HAIL. IN NORTHERN MISSOURI AND NORTHEAST KANSAS...THUNDERSTORMS MAY
BE MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE...BUT MAY GROW STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
SMALL HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

ANOTHER STRONG STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS
AND HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE REGION ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO EARLY
MONDAY. EXACT TIMING OF THIS STORM SYSTEM IS STILL UNCERTAIN AND
EMERGENCY MANAGERS SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER THIS WEEKEND IN CASE
STORMS ARRIVE EARLIER THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

PC

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