Flash Flood Warning 42, NWS Kansas City, MO

000 
WGUS73 KEAX 010637
FFSEAX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1217 AM CST THU MAR 1 2007

MOC033-041-079-115-117-211-011300-
CARROLL MO-CHARITON MO-LIVINGSTON MO-LINN MO-GRUNDY MO-SULLIVAN MO-
1217 AM CST THU MAR 1 2007

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN SULLIVAN...
SOUTHEASTERN GRUNDY...LINN...LIVINGSTON...NORTHWESTERN CHARITON AND
CARROLL COUNTIES IN NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI UNTIL 700 AM CST...

SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO PRODUCE 
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. DOPPLER 
RADAR HAS ESTIMATED ONE AND A HALF INCHES OF RAIN...WITH LOCALIZED 
TWO INCH AMOUNTS...HAS ALREADY FALLEN SINCE 8 PM WEDNESDAY EVENING.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN A HALF TO ONE INCH WILL BE 
POSSIBLE BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION DIMINISHES THROUGH THE MORNING. 
THESE ADDITIONAL RAINS WILL FALL ON ALREADY SATURATED SOIL AND 
PRODUCE RUNOFF THAT MAY LEAD TO FLOODING. SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY 
EXPERIENCE FLOODING 
INCLUDE...BROOKFIELD...CARROLLTON...CHILLICOTHE...MARCELINE...
BOSWORTH...BROWNING...BRUNSWICK...BUCKLIN...HALE...LACLEDE...
LINNEUS...MEADVILLE...NORBORNE...UTICA AND WHEELING.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED...ACT QUICKLY. DO NOT
ENTER THE WATER. TURN AROUND AND MOVE UP TO HIGHER GROUND. DO NOT
STAY IN AREAS SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY.

LAT...LON 4024 9287 3953 9287 3931 9334 3920 9377
      3993 9377

$$

SP/MAS

000 
WGUS73 KEAX 011103
FFSEAX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
454 AM CST THU MAR 1 2007

MOC033-041-079-115-117-211-011300-
CARROLL MO-CHARITON MO-LIVINGSTON MO-LINN MO-GRUNDY MO-SULLIVAN MO-
454 AM CST THU MAR 1 2007

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN SULLIVAN...
SOUTHEASTERN GRUNDY...LINN...LIVINGSTON...NORTHWESTERN CHARITON AND
CARROLL COUNTIES IN NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI UNTIL 700 AM CST...

AS OF 5 AM...DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATES SHOWED THAT TWO TO TWO AND A 
HALF INCHES OF RAIN HAD FALLEN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WARNED AREA 
SINCE WEDNESDAY EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE EXITED THE AREA...ISOLATED ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN 
POSSIBLE BEFORE 7 AM. RUNOFF FROM THE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS 
RECEIVED SINCE LAST EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO POSE THE THREAT OF 
FLOODING IN PORTIONS OF THE WARNED AREA. SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY 
EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...BROOKFIELD...CARROLLTON...CHILLICOTHE
...MARCELINE...BOSWORTH...BROWNING...BRUNSWICK...BUCKLIN...HALE...
LACLEDE...LINNEUS...MEADVILLE...NORBORNE...UTICA AND WHEELING.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE 
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS 
SAFELY.

IN HILLY TERRAIN...THERE ARE HUNDREDS OF LOW WATER CROSSINGS WHICH
ARE POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS IN HEAVY RAIN. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL
ACROSS FLOODED ROADS. FIND ALTERNATE ROUTES. IT ONLY TAKES A FEW
INCHES OF SWIFTLY FLOWING WATER TO CARRY VEHICLES AWAY.

LAT...LON 4024 9287 3953 9287 3931 9334 3920 9377
      3993 9377

$$

MAS

000 
WGUS73 KEAX 011256
FFSEAX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
651 AM CST THU MAR 1 2007

MOC033-041-079-115-117-211-011301-
CARROLL MO-CHARITON MO-LIVINGSTON MO-LINN MO-GRUNDY MO-SULLIVAN MO-
651 AM CST THU MAR 1 2007

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN
SULLIVAN...SOUTHEASTERN GRUNDY...LINN...LIVINGSTON...NORTHWESTERN
CHARITON AND CARROLL COUNTIES IN NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI WILL BE
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 700 AM CST...

EXCESS RUNOFF FROM MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN THAT FELL OVERNIGHT LAST 
NIGHT HAS COME TO AN END OVER THE WARNED AREA. ALTHOUGH SOME AREA 
RIVERS AND STREAMS CONTINUE TO RISE THIS MORNING FROM THE RAIN LAST 
NIGHT...THE WIDESPREAD FLOODING THREAT HAS ENDED.

LAT...LON 4024 9287 3953 9287 3931 9334 3920 9377
      3993 9377

$$

MAS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
506 PM CST WED FEB 28 2007

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS FORECAST IS ON THE SEVERE AND WINTER WEATHER
THREAT FOR TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW.

A LARGE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TODAY WILL ROTATE
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT. AS IT SWINGS INTO THE PLAINS IT
WILL BECOME INCREASING MORE NEGATIVELY TILLED. OF NOTE ON THE
AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ARE SEVERAL FEATURES. FIRST IS THE
PLUME OF MOISTURE THAT IS NOTED FROM THE SOUTHEAST PACIFIC THROUGH
OLD MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. ALSO SEEN IS A DRY SLOT ON THE
NORTH SIDE OF THE PLUME ON THE NOSE OF A 100+ KTS JET THAT IS RACING
IN UNDER THE TROUGH. LOOKING A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE GROUND...WE CAN
SEE THE SURFACE LOW TAKING SHAPE IN THE PANHANDLES OF TEXAS AND
OKLAHOMA WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF IT. THE SOUTHERN WIND
IS QUICKLY ADVECTING WARM AIR NORTH WITH 70+ DEGREE TEMPERATURES
REACHING AS FAR NORTH AS LEES SUMMIT. THE MOISTURE MOVING NORTH IS
LAGGING BEHIND LEADING EDGE OF THE WARM AIR WITH 50 DEGREE DEW
POINTS HAVING MADE IT TO SPRINGFIELD. THE EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT LOOKS
TO HAVE MADE IT TO THE MISSOURI RIVER AT THIS TIME.

18Z SOUNDING FROM SPRINGFIELD SHOW A STRONG CAP IN PLACE ACROSS
SOUTHERN MISSOURI EXTENDING NORTH. THE DRY SLOT EVIDENT ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY AND THE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT WILL KEEP US
CAPPED THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING HOURS. ADDITIONALLY...SURFACE
FEATURES ARE BEGINNING TO REALIGN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH...MEANING THAT IT WILL BE MANY HOURS BEFORE THE UPPER
AIR AND SURFACE FEATURES SYNC UP TO THE POINT WHERE STORMS CAN GET
GOING AND ORGANIZE. THE IMPLICATION IS THAT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL NOT MOVE INTO OUR WARNING AREA BEFORE 9 PM. HOWEVER...ANY
ACTIVITY THAT DOES GET GOING AFTER 9 PM WILL HAVE 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES
OF 50 KTS OR MORE AND STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7 C/KM TO
WORK WITH. DESPITE THE NOCTURNAL HOURS OVER WHICH THIS WILL BE
OCCURRING MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT MOISTURE ADVECTION AT THE
SURFACE WILL INDUCE UP TO 800 J/KG OF INSTABILITY. WITH THE LEFT
EXIT REGION OF A 100+ KTS JET MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI AROUND
MIDNIGHT...THOUGHTS ARE ANY CAP THAT IS LEFT WILL QUICKLY ERODE.

THE COMBINATION OF SHEAR...INSTABILITY...AND MOISTURE WILL MAKE
SEVERE WEATHER A STRONG POSSIBILITY AROUND AND AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS
AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM KANSAS CITY TO MACON.
HOWEVER...THE BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE FOR SEVERE WILL RANGE ALONG A
LINE FROM BUTLER NORTHEAST THROUGH CLINTON AND WARRENSBURG...
SEDALIA...AND FAYETTE. SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS AND SQUALL LINES WILL
BE THE PRIMARY MODES FOR CONVECTION TONIGHT. ANY STORMS FROM KANSAS
CITY TO MACON WILL HAVE A STRONG POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN...LARGE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS. AREAS FROM BUTLER TO FAYETTE WILL WILL
HAVE THE SAME THREATS...BUT WILL ALSO HAVE TO CONTEND WITH AN
ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES.

THE MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH OVERNIGHT AND OVERRUNNING THE FRONT
COULD PRODUCE WIDESPREAD AREAS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN...
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. CENTRAL AND NORTH
CENTRAL MISSOURI HAVE ALREADY HAD ISSUES WITH FLOODING DUE TO THIS
PAST WEEKENDS RAIN. THEREFORE WE HAVE GONE WITH A FLOOD WATCH FOR
MIDNIGHT TO NOON THURSDAY FOR THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA.

AS THE LOW DEEPENS OVERNIGHT AND LIFTS INTO IOWA EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING COLD AIR WILL WRAP AROUND INTO OUR CWA. THIS WILL BRING
FALLING TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA FOR TOMORROW IN ADDITION TO SNOW.
CURRENTLY IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE TOWARDS DAYBREAK BEFORE ENOUGH
COLD AIR MOVES FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO CONVERT ANY ONGOING PRECIPITATION
IN THE NORTHWEST CORNER INTO SNOW. HOWEVER...AS THE AIR COLUMN
COOLS BETWEEN 3 AM AND 9 AM THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY BRINGING 20 TO 30 MPH WINDS TO MUCH OF EASTERN KANSAS
AND MISSOURI TOMORROW. ACCUMULATIONS IN EXTREME NORTHEAST KANSAS AND
NORTHWEST MISSOURI ARE EXPECTED TO RUN FROM 2 TO 5 INCHES...WITH THE
HIGHER AMOUNTS MORE LIKELY THE FARTHER NORTH YOU MOVE INTO NEBRASKA
AND IOWA. HAVE LIMITED THE ACCUMULATIONS A LITTLE DUE TO THE SPEED
WITH WHICH THE LOW IS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTHEAST. STILL 2 TO 5 INCHES
WITH 20 TO 30 MPH WINDS LOOKS SUFFICIENT FOR A SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW
ADVISORY IN EXTREME NORTHEAST KANSAS AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI FROM 3
AM TO NOON THURSDAY. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME SNOW STILL FALLING
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI THROUGH LATE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...BUT ACCUMULATIONS LOOK LOW ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO
WARRANT CUTTING OFF THE ADVISORY AT NOON AND NOT EXTENDING IT ANY
FARTHER EAST.

CUTTER

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

A STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY DRIFT ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.  SEVERAL LOBES OF
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL ROTATE AROUND THIS SYSTEM...RESULTING IN
PERIODIC CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF MISSOURI.  BY SUNDAY...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
LOSE ITS INFLUENCE ON THE AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM
THE WEST.  THIS EXPANSIVE SURFACE HIGH WILL EXTEND ALL THE WAY INTO
THE GULF...EFFECTIVELY SCOURING OUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE
REGION.  EARLY WEEK UPPER PATTERN WILL GENERALLY BE ZONAL WITH A FEW
WEAK RIPPLES HINTED BY THE GFS.  NOT EXPECTING ANY OF THIS ENERGY TO
PRODUCE PRECIPITATION...DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED LACK OF
MOISTURE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.  AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...REINFORCING SHOTS OF COLD AIR WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
EACH PIECE OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW TO THE
NORTHEAST.  THE COLDEST PERIOD LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. HIGHS WILL LIKELY STAY IN THE 30S ACROSS ALL BUT FAR
SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE
TEENS NORTH TO LOWER 20S SOUTH. BY THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK
WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS.

SAW

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

/638 AM CST WED FEB 28 2007/
GETTING REPORTS OF A SNOW AND SLEET MIX AT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
CONVECTION MOVING THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI. UPDATED FORECASTS
TO REFLECT THIS PRECIPITATION. THIS BAND OF CONVECTION BEING DRIVEN
BY WARM AIR ADVECTION...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHEAST OUT OF
THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING.

PC

/342 AM CST WED FEB 28 2007/
ANOTHER SPRING TO WINTER STORM SYSTEM ON TAP FOR THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. DEEPENING SHORT WAVE BECOMES MORE NEGATIVELY
TILTED AS IT SWINGS INTO KANSAS TONIGHT. SURFACE WARM FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO SET UP ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS IN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CURRENTLY IN TEXAS WILL BE RAPIDLY DRAWN NORTHWARD ARRIVING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON. BEFORE THAT OCCURS...ISENTROPIC
LIFT THIS MORNING SHOWING UP ON THE 300K SURFACE ALREADY LEADING TO
SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN EXTREME
SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA. WILL HAVE SOME CHANCE POPS IN
FOR THIS AREA OF LIFT THIS MORNING...WITH MAIN FOCUS BEING IN
CENTRAL MISSOURI. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO GET SHUNTED OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST AS STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL WINDS PULL IN DRY AIR IN THE
700 TO 500 MB LEVELS. WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH THESE WINDS SHOULD CAP
ANY ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL ONLY LEAVE SOME CHANCE POPS
IN MY NORTHEAST WHERE CONVECTION MIGHT STILL BE ONGOING AT MIDDAY.

FOR TONIGHT...MODELS SHOW UPPER TROUGH SWINGING INTO EASTERN KANSAS
BY 12Z THURSDAY...THEN SWINGING NORTHEAST INTO IOWA BY MIDDAY ON
THURSDAY. STRONG VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO
BE MOVING TO NEAR THE KANSAS MISSOURI BORDER BY 12Z...AND MOVE EAST
OF THE AREA BY 18Z...WHICH WOULD COINCIDE WITH ENDING THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS  LEFT EXIT REGION OF STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER JET
WILL BE ACROSS MISSOURI DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH THE LOW
LEVEL JET INCREASING TO OVER 50 KTS. THIS SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR
STRONG...POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS OVERNIGHT (SEE SPC DAY 1 DISCUSSION
FOR DETAILS)...WITH ALSO THE POTENTIAL OF HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN MISSOURI...NORTH OF SURFACE FRONT.
THIS IS AN AREA THAT HAS SEEN RECENT FLOODING ON SOME OF THE RIVERS.
MODEL QPF NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE...POSSIBLY DUE TO THE RAPID MOVEMENT
OF THE STORMS. BUT WITH PWAT IN EXCESS OF AN INCH IN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...AND HEADWATER GUIDANCE ON SOME OF THE AREA RIVERS
BELOW AN INCH...A WATCH MAY BE WARRANTED FOR LATE TONIGHT AND INTO
THE DAY ON THURSDAY.  WILL LET DAY SHIFT TAKE ONE MORE LOOK AT
MORNING HEADWATER GUIDANCE AND GET A BETTER HANDLE ON EXACTLY WHERE
SURFACE FRONT WILL BE SETTING UP...BEFORE WE MAKE A FINAL DECISION
ON A WATCH.

THAT IS THE SPRINGTIME PART OF THE STORM.  NEXT CONCERN IS THE
WINTERTIME PART. WITH SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO BE MOVING INTO
NORTHWEST MISSOURI BY 09Z...THEN TRACKING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA BY
18Z ON THURSDAY...STRONG WINDS AND SNOW ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
NORTHWEST MISSOURI AND NORTHEAST KANSAS LATE TONIGHT AND DURING THE
DAY ON THURSDAY. GFS MORE BULLISH ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...AND WOULD
SUGGEST SOME AREAS MAY PICK UP IN EXCESS OF 6 INCHES IN THE
NORTHWEST CORNER OF MISSOURI. NAM NOT AS WET...BUT BOTH MODELS SHOW
WINDS GUSTING IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. THUS
EVEN IF THE 6 INCH AMOUNTS ARE NOT REACHED...BLOWING SNOW WILL BE A
REAL CONCERN...SO WILL GO WITH A WINTER STORM WATCH AT THIS
POINT...FOR NORTHWEST MISSOURI AND EXTREME NORTHEAST KANSAS...WHERE
SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR...WITH
POTENTIAL FOR DRIFTS IN EXCESS OF A FOOT.

PC

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY FROM 3 AM THURSDAY TO NOON
     THURSDAY FOR MOZ001-MOZ002-MOZ003-MOZ004-MOZ005-MOZ011-
     MOZ012-MOZ013.

     FLOOD WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT THURSDAY TO NOON THURSDAY FOR MOZ006-
     MOZ007-MOZ008-MOZ014-MOZ015-MOZ016-MOZ017-MOZ022-MOZ023-
     MOZ024-MOZ025-MOZ030-MOZ031-MOZ032-MOZ033-MOZ038-MOZ039-
     MOZ040-MOZ044-MOZ045-MOZ046.

KS...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY FROM 3 AM THURSDAY TO NOON
     THURSDAY FOR KSZ102.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
112 PM CST WED FEB 28 2007

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-011200-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-
JOHNSON KS-ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-
PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-
BUCHANAN-CLINTON-CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-
RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-
CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
112 PM CST WED FEB 28 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL
AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO EASTERN KANSAS LATE
TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS STORM SYSTEM...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP DURING THE LATE EVENING AND CONTINUE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WITH THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERE STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL.
SEVERE STORMS IN AREAS ALONG AND TO THE SOUTH OF WARM FRONT THAT WILL
BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR WILL BE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT. DAMAGING WINDS LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL
LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70...WHILE THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED
TORNADOES WILL PRIMARILY EXISTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM BUTLER
TO WARRENSBURG AND FAYETTE.

TO THE NORTH OF THIS FRONT...OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI...LARGE HAIL MAY
ALSO OCCUR...AND HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. WITH THIS RAIN
OCCURRING OVER AREAS THAT HAVE RECEIVED QUITE A BIT OF RAINFALL
LATELY...FLOODING ON AREA RIVERS MAY AGAIN OCCUR.

BY LATE TONIGHT...COLDER AIR INVADING EXTREME NORTHEAST KANSAS AND
THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF MISSOURI IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE THE
PRECIPITATION OVER TO SNOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM NORTHWEST
MISSOURI INTO SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE OCCURRING
OVER NORTHWEST MISSOURI AND NORTHEAST KANSAS. WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE
STRONG OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW
AND DRIFTING SNOW. AREAS NORTH OF A LINE FROM KANSAS CITY TO
KIRKSVILLE SHOULD SEE SOME ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WITH THE NORTHWEST
PORTIONS OF MISSOURI POSSIBLY PICKING UP 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW. A
WINTER STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWEST MISSOURI AND EXTREME
NORTHEAST KANSAS.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY STILL BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE DAY IN
CENTRAL MISSOURI...BUT SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE REGION BY MID MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM BUTLER
TO WARRENSBURG AND FAYETTE.

CUTTER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
813 PM CST WED FEB 28 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0735 PM     HAIL             CENTERVILLE KS          38.22N 95.02W
02/28/2007  E0.75 INCH       LINN               KS   CO-OP OBSERVER

            DIME SIZE HAIL REPORTED.

&&

MJM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
834 PM CST WED FEB 28 2007

KSZ104-105-MOZ029-037-010315-
CLAY-JACKSON-JOHNSON-WYANDOTTE-
834 PM CST WED FEB 28 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR CLAY...JACKSON...NORTHEASTERN
JOHNSON AND SOUTHEASTERN WYANDOTTE COUNTIES UNTIL 915 PM CST...

AT 832 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM LEAWOOD TO KANSAS
CITY DOWNTOWN ARPT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  PLEASANT VALLEY AND CLAYCOMO BY 840 PM CST.
  RAYTOWN...SUGAR CREEK AND GLENAIRE BY 845 PM CST.
  COURTNEY...LIBERTY...INDEPENDENCE AND 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF LAKE
  TAPAWINGO BY 850 PM CST.
  MISSOURI CITY BY 900 PM CST.
  EXCELSIOR SPRINGS BY 910 PM CST.

THE TOWNS OF ROELAND PARK...OAKS...OAKWOOD PARK...OAKWOOD...
RANDOLPH...MAYWOOD...BIRMINGHAM...MOSBY AND PRATHERSVILLE ARE ALSO IN
THE PATH OF THESE STORMS.

PENNY SIZE HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 AM.

PC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
837 PM CST WED FEB 28 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0824 PM     HAIL             OLATHE                  38.89N 94.81W
02/28/2007  E0.75 INCH       JOHNSON            KS   PUBLIC

            DIME SIZE HAIL REPORTED

0715 PM     HAIL             KANSAS CITY             39.12N 94.55W
02/28/2007  E0.75 INCH       JACKSON            MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HAIL COVERING THE GROUND

0715 PM     HAIL             ADRIAN                  38.40N 94.35W
02/28/2007  M1.00 INCH       BATES              MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

MJM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
839 PM CST WED FEB 28 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0838 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     AMSTERDAM               38.35N 94.59W
02/28/2007                   BATES              MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

MJM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
841 PM CST WED FEB 28 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0815 PM     HAIL             1 N AMSTERDAM           38.36N 94.59W
02/28/2007  E2.75 INCH       BATES              MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MJM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
848 PM CST WED FEB 28 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0812 PM     HAIL             3 E BRAYMER             39.59N 93.74W
02/28/2007  E0.75 INCH       CARROLL            MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HAIL COVERING THE GROUND

0814 PM     HAIL             LENEXA                  38.96N 94.79W
02/28/2007  E0.88 INCH       JOHNSON            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            AT INTERSECTION OF I-435 AND 95TH STREET

&&

MJM