Blowing Snow Advisory 2, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
548 AM CST THU MAR 1 2007

.DISCUSSION...
/424 AM CST THU MAR 1 2007/
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT NOW WINDING DOWN ACROSS THE AREA AS OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY FROM LAST NIGHTS CONVECTION HAS PUSHED THROUGH MOST
COUNTIES. CONTINUING TO SEE SOME THUNDER WITH STORMS DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA...HOWEVER ACTIVITY HAS SLOWLY WEAKENED OVER
THE PAST HOUR. ALSO...WENT AHEAD AND CANCELED THE REMAINING COUNTIES
OF THE TORNADO WATCH AS ACTIVITY HAS MOVED OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES AS WELL.

ATTENTION NOW TURNS TO WINTRY PRECIP AS SFC LOW TRAVERSES THE CWA AND
COLDER AIR WRAPS IN. SIMILAR THINKING TO PREVIOUS FORECAST AND
CONTINUED WITH GOING HEADLINES. TRIMMED BACK SNOWFALL A BIT BUT STILL
THINK 2 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST
COUNTIES WITH ISOLATED AREAS OF 4 INCHES. IN ADDITION...WINDS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE AS THE SFC LOW PUSHES EAST AND THEREFORE KEPT MENTION
OF BLOWING SNOW.

ALSO SEEING SOME FLOODING CONCERNS ON LOCAL AREA RIVERS AND WILL KEEP
FLOOD WATCH GOING AS RIVERS HAVE YET TO CREST IN MANY AREAS.

COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT
TONIGHT AND KEPT MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW AS WARP AROUND PRECIP MAY
LINGER ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/3 COUNTIES.

OTHERWISE...DIDNT MAKE MANY CHANGES TO GOING GRIDS BEYOND TOMORROW
NIGHT AS FORECAST LOOKED TO BE ON TRACK.

DEROCHE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/506 PM CST WED FEB 28 2007/
MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS FORECAST IS ON THE SEVERE AND WINTER WEATHER
THREAT FOR TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW.

A LARGE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TODAY WILL ROTATE
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT. AS IT SWINGS INTO THE PLAINS IT
WILL BECOME INCREASING MORE NEGATIVELY TILLED. OF NOTE ON THE
AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ARE SEVERAL FEATURES. FIRST IS THE
PLUME OF MOISTURE THAT IS NOTED FROM THE SOUTHEAST PACIFIC THROUGH
OLD MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. ALSO SEEN IS A DRY SLOT ON THE
NORTH SIDE OF THE PLUME ON THE NOSE OF A 100+ KTS JET THAT IS RACING
IN UNDER THE TROUGH. LOOKING A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE GROUND...WE CAN
SEE THE SURFACE LOW TAKING SHAPE IN THE PANHANDLES OF TEXAS AND
OKLAHOMA WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF IT. THE SOUTHERN WIND
IS QUICKLY ADVECTING WARM AIR NORTH WITH 70+ DEGREE TEMPERATURES
REACHING AS FAR NORTH AS LEES SUMMIT. THE MOISTURE MOVING NORTH IS
LAGGING BEHIND LEADING EDGE OF THE WARM AIR WITH 50 DEGREE DEW
POINTS HAVING MADE IT TO SPRINGFIELD. THE EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT LOOKS
TO HAVE MADE IT TO THE MISSOURI RIVER AT THIS TIME.

18Z SOUNDING FROM SPRINGFIELD SHOW A STRONG CAP IN PLACE ACROSS
SOUTHERN MISSOURI EXTENDING NORTH. THE DRY SLOT EVIDENT ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY AND THE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT WILL KEEP US
CAPPED THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING HOURS. ADDITIONALLY...SURFACE
FEATURES ARE BEGINNING TO REALIGN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH...MEANING THAT IT WILL BE MANY HOURS BEFORE THE UPPER
AIR AND SURFACE FEATURES SYNC UP TO THE POINT WHERE STORMS CAN GET
GOING AND ORGANIZE. THE IMPLICATION IS THAT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL NOT MOVE INTO OUR WARNING AREA BEFORE 9 PM. HOWEVER...ANY
ACTIVITY THAT DOES GET GOING AFTER 9 PM WILL HAVE 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES
OF 50 KTS OR MORE AND STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7 C/KM TO
WORK WITH. DESPITE THE NOCTURNAL HOURS OVER WHICH THIS WILL BE
OCCURRING MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT MOISTURE ADVECTION AT THE
SURFACE WILL INDUCE UP TO 800 J/KG OF INSTABILITY. WITH THE LEFT
EXIT REGION OF A 100+ KTS JET MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI AROUND
MIDNIGHT...THOUGHTS ARE ANY CAP THAT IS LEFT WILL QUICKLY ERODE.

THE COMBINATION OF SHEAR...INSTABILITY...AND MOISTURE WILL MAKE
SEVERE WEATHER A STRONG POSSIBILITY AROUND AND AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS
AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM KANSAS CITY TO MACON.
HOWEVER...THE BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE FOR SEVERE WILL RANGE ALONG A
LINE FROM BUTLER NORTHEAST THROUGH CLINTON AND WARRENSBURG...
SEDALIA...AND FAYETTE. SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS AND SQUALL LINES WILL
BE THE PRIMARY MODES FOR CONVECTION TONIGHT. ANY STORMS FROM KANSAS
CITY TO MACON WILL HAVE A STRONG POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN...LARGE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS. AREAS FROM BUTLER TO FAYETTE WILL WILL
HAVE THE SAME THREATS...BUT WILL ALSO HAVE TO CONTEND WITH AN
ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES.

THE MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH OVERNIGHT AND OVERRUNNING THE FRONT
COULD PRODUCE WIDESPREAD AREAS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN...
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. CENTRAL AND NORTH
CENTRAL MISSOURI HAVE ALREADY HAD ISSUES WITH FLOODING DUE TO THIS
PAST WEEKENDS RAIN. THEREFORE WE HAVE GONE WITH A FLOOD WATCH FOR
MIDNIGHT TO NOON THURSDAY FOR THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA.

AS THE LOW DEEPENS OVERNIGHT AND LIFTS INTO IOWA EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING COLD AIR WILL WRAP AROUND INTO OUR CWA. THIS WILL BRING
FALLING TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA FOR TOMORROW IN ADDITION TO SNOW.
CURRENTLY IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE TOWARDS DAYBREAK BEFORE ENOUGH
COLD AIR MOVES FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO CONVERT ANY ONGOING PRECIPITATION
IN THE NORTHWEST CORNER INTO SNOW. HOWEVER...AS THE AIR COLUMN
COOLS BETWEEN 3 AM AND 9 AM THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY BRINGING 20 TO 30 MPH WINDS TO MUCH OF EASTERN KANSAS
AND MISSOURI TOMORROW. ACCUMULATIONS IN EXTREME NORTHEAST KANSAS AND
NORTHWEST MISSOURI ARE EXPECTED TO RUN FROM 2 TO 5 INCHES...WITH THE
HIGHER AMOUNTS MORE LIKELY THE FARTHER NORTH YOU MOVE INTO NEBRASKA
AND IOWA. HAVE LIMITED THE ACCUMULATIONS A LITTLE DUE TO THE SPEED
WITH WHICH THE LOW IS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTHEAST. STILL 2 TO 5 INCHES
WITH 20 TO 30 MPH WINDS LOOKS SUFFICIENT FOR A SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW
ADVISORY IN EXTREME NORTHEAST KANSAS AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI FROM 3
AM TO NOON THURSDAY. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME SNOW STILL FALLING
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI THROUGH LATE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...BUT ACCUMULATIONS LOOK LOW ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO
WARRANT CUTTING OFF THE ADVISORY AT NOON AND NOT EXTENDING IT ANY
FARTHER EAST.

CUTTER

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

A STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY DRIFT ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.  SEVERAL LOBES OF
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL ROTATE AROUND THIS SYSTEM...RESULTING IN
PERIODIC CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF MISSOURI.  BY SUNDAY...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
LOSE ITS INFLUENCE ON THE AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM
THE WEST.  THIS EXPANSIVE SURFACE HIGH WILL EXTEND ALL THE WAY INTO
THE GULF...EFFECTIVELY SCOURING OUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE
REGION.  EARLY WEEK UPPER PATTERN WILL GENERALLY BE ZONAL WITH A FEW
WEAK RIPPLES HINTED BY THE GFS.  NOT EXPECTING ANY OF THIS ENERGY TO
PRODUCE PRECIPITATION...DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED LACK OF
MOISTURE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.  AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...REINFORCING SHOTS OF COLD AIR WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
EACH PIECE OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW TO THE
NORTHEAST.  THE COLDEST PERIOD LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. HIGHS WILL LIKELY STAY IN THE 30S ACROSS ALL BUT FAR
SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE
TEENS NORTH TO LOWER 20S SOUTH. BY THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK
WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS.

SAW

&&

.AVIATION...
IFR CEILINGS SHOULD BE ACROSS TAF SITES THROUGH MORNING HOURS IN THE
WAKE OF SURFACE WAVE MOVING FROM NORTHWEST MISSOURI INTO SOUTHERN
IOWA. PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL CAUSE WINDS TO
BECOME QUITE GUSTY AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN. ALSO THIS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT A BAND OF SNOW THAT IS WRAPPED AROUND THE BACK
SIDE OF THIS LOW. TEMPERATURES AT THE MCI AND MKC SITES WILL BE
MARGINAL FOR SNOW...AND PRECIP MAY BE MORE OF A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
AT TIMES. STJ SHOULD BE MAINLY SNOW WITH AN INCH OR TWO POSSIBLE.
ANY SNOW THAT DOES FALL WILL BE BLOWING...REDUCING VISIBILITIES. AS
THIS STORM SYSTEM LIFTS NORTH THIS AFTERNOON...THE THREAT OF
PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO LIFT TO THE NORTH WITH IT.

PC

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL NOON THURSDAY FOR MOZ001-
     MOZ002-MOZ003-MOZ004-MOZ005-MOZ011-MOZ012-MOZ013.

     FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON THURSDAY FOR MOZ006-MOZ007-MOZ008-MOZ014-
     MOZ015-MOZ016-MOZ017-MOZ022-MOZ023-MOZ024-MOZ025-MOZ030-
     MOZ031-MOZ032-MOZ033-MOZ038-MOZ039-MOZ040-MOZ044-MOZ045-
     MOZ046.

KS...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL NOON THURSDAY FOR KSZ102.

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