Flash Flood Warning 26, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
403 AM CDT FRI JUN 29 2007

.DISCUSSION...

EARLY THIS MORNING MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN CONTINUED IN
A LARGE SWATH EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...THROUGH SOUTHEAST
KANSAS...INTO SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MISSOURI.  THIS AREA OF
PRECIPITATION WAS FOUND TO THE NORTH OF A WEAK STATIONARY BOUNDARY
AT THE SURFACE SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR. IN ADDITION...A
SHEAR AXIS PERSISTED FROM TEXAS INTO WESTERN MISSOURI. 850MB
PROFILER DATA INDICATED 20 TO 25 KT SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THIS
BOUNDARY...WHICH WAS CONTRIBUTING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF RAINFALL
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. FOR NOW WILL NOT
CHANGE THE OUTLINE OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS MANY OF THESE
COUNTIES HAVE ONGOING FLOODING ISSUES OR FFG VALUES OF AN INCH OR
LESS. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL
LOOKS TO BE FROM EAST CENTRAL KANSAS TO LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
CONTINUES TO CAUSE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTHCENTRAL
OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS WITH THE ACTIVITY STREAMING
NORTH/NORTHEASTWARD. DID NOT TRIM BACK THE END TIME OF THE WATCH DUE
TO UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THE BETTER 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHIFTS TO THE WEST
DURING THE AFTERNOON...FOCUSING THE BEST FORCING ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS...THIS PATTERN
SHOULD DECREASE COVERAGE OF WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACROSS
OUR AREA AS THE DAY WEARS ON. KEPT CHANCE POPS IN FOR TONIGHT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE SHEAR AXIS
STILL NEARBY. HOWEVER...THE MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW-LEVEL JET AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL OCCUR WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THEREFORE...IM NOT EXPECTING THE QPF TO BE TOO HEAVY. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES TODAY...IM EXPECTING CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION TO
HOLD DOWN HIGHS IN MANY LOCATIONS. GOING WITH MID 70S ACROSS ALL BUT
FAR NORTHERN AREAS WHERE LESS CLOUD COVER WILL YIELD UPPER 70S TO
NEAR 80 DEGREES.

FOR SATURDAY KEPT CHANCE POPS IN FOR DIURNAL ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE PERSISTENT UPPER DISTURBANCE.  WITH TIME THIS FEATURE
DRIFTS WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION...LIKELY BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER
LOOKS TO LINGER ON SATURDAY...SO TWEAKED HIGHS DOWN A FEW
DEGREES...GENERALLY THE GRIDS WILL HAVE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

DIDNT MAKE MANY OTHER CHANGES TO THE GRIDS...THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK LOOKS DRY WITH A WARMING TREND.  WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE
APPROACH OF ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY DURING THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY
TIMEFRAME. LOW POPS IN THE GRIDS COVER THIS OK FOR NOW...POPS WILL
LIKELY BE TWEAKED UPWARDS SOME ONCE THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM CAN BE
BETTER DETERMINED.

SAW

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM FRIDAY FOR MOZ025-MOZ032-MOZ033-
     MOZ038-MOZ039-MOZ040-MOZ043-MOZ044-MOZ045-MOZ046-MOZ053-
     MOZ054.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM FRIDAY FOR KSZ057-KSZ060.

WFO EAX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
108 PM CDT THU JUN 28 2007

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-291100-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-
JOHNSON KS-ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-
PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-
BUCHANAN-CLINTON-CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-
RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-
CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
108 PM CDT THU JUN 28 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL
AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A LARGE SWATH OF HEAVY SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA THROUGH THIS
EVENING. A BRIEF LULL IN ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. SINCE THE ONSET OF THE
RAIN...AT LEAST TWO INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN GENERALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF A PAOLA KANSAS...TO LEXINGTON TO MACON MISSOURI LINE...WITH
POCKETS OF RAIN IN EXCESS OF 4 INCHES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF UP TO ONE
INCH WILL BE COMMON GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A PAOLA TO BOONVILLE
LINE THROUGH THIS EVENING. EXPECTED RAINFALL WILL COMBINE TO
AGGRAVATE AREA RIVERS ALREADY SWOLLEN BY PREVIOUS RAINFALL...LEADING
TO ADDITIONAL RIVER FLOODING AND ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING OF SMALLER
RIVERS AND STREAMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT PRODUCING ADDITIONAL FLOODING PROBLEMS DUE TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR THE RAIN MOVE SOUTH AND EAST
INTO THE ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BRINGING AN
END TO THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED...ALTHOUGH REPORTS OF VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING WOULD BE APPRECIATED TODAY.