Flash Flood Warning 25, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
411 PM CDT THU JUN 28 2007

QUASI-STATIONARY UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BE THE
DOMINATE WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. JUXTIPOSITION OF
ASSOCIATED SHEAR AXIS IS CAUSING THE GREATEST FORECAST CONCERN...AS
SHEAR AXIS ORIENTATION WILL DICTATE AXIS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL.
SURFACE FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF FORECAST AREA...WITH WARM SECTOR
CONVECTION BECOMING MORE ACTIVE BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR
TRENDS. EXPECT TO SEE A LULL IN SHOWERS THIS EVENING INTO EARLY
FRIDAY...AS H8 FLOW HAS VEERED AND IS DIRECTING BETTER MOISTURE
SOUTH AND EAST OF FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER AS LLJ BACKS LATE TONIGHT
EXPECT COVERAGE OF SHRA WILL INCREASE. POSITION OF SHEAR AXIS
REMAINS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED THROUGH FRIDAY THUS EXPECT CONTINUATION
OF SHRA ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTION OF FORECAST AREA...WITH ISOLD TSRA
DUE TO MARGINAL INSTABILITY. WITH RENEWAL OF WIDESPREAD SHRA
ACTIVITY LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...DECIDED TO EXTEND FFA THROUGH
00Z SATURDAY.  SEVERAL AREA RIVERS AND IN FLOOD...AND EVEN THOUGH
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ONLY WILL ON THE ORDER OF ONE INCH OR LESS...FFA
AREA HAS SEEN ENOUGH RAIN ALREADY THAT ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL COULD
ALLOW ALREADY SWOLLEN RIVERS TO RISE AOA BANKFULL AND LEAD TO
INCREASED PONDING ON AREA ROADWAYS.

AS TIME PROGRESSES...FEEL ACTIVITY IN ASSOCIATION WITH UPPER LOW
AND SHEAR AXIS WILL BECOME MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AS UPPER LOW TAKES
ON MORE BAROTROPIC TENDENCIES. WITH THAT SAID...USED NAM AS GUIDE
FOR FORECAST EVOLUTION THORUGH THE SHORT TERM AS SREF AND GFS
ENSEMBLES TENDED TO SUPPORT IT SOLUTION OF WEAKENING THE EFFECT OF
UPPER LOW.  LOWERED TEMPERATURES A TAD TOMORROW INTO SATURDAY DUE TO
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND EVAPOTRANSPIRATION EFFECT...OTHERWISE ONLY
TWEAKED PREVIOUS FORECAST TEMPERATURES USING COOLER MAV AS GUIDE.

IN THE EXTENDED...H5 RIDGE AXIS WILL DOMINATE WEATHER THROUGH THE
BULK OF THE EXTENDED.  H5 RIDGE BEGINS TO RETROGRADE BY THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK...WITH OVERALL H5 PATTERN BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED.  POTENT
VORTMAX DIVING INTO EASTERN CANADA WILL DRAG BOUNDARY INTO AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.  GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN TRENDING TOWARD
SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION OF KEEPING FRONT TO THE NORTH OF FORECAST AREA
UNTIL WEDNESDAY EVENING...THUS DECIDED TO GENERALLY FOLLOW EC
SOLUTION.  IT WILL TAKE A LITTLE TIME FOR SOIL TO DRY OUT FROM
ONGOING RAINS AND GIVEN THAT MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT IN PREDICTING E-SE LOW LEVEL FLOW THROUGH
TUESDAY...DECIDED NOT TO WARM TEMPERATURES UP TOO DRASTICALLY EVEN
WITH BUIDLING H5 HEIGHTS.  THAT BEING SAID...USE HPC/MEX ENSEMBLE AS
GUIDE FOR TEMPERATURES.

SF

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 18Z/28 TAFS...SCT -SHRA WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE KANSAS
CITY METROPOLITAN TERMINAL SITES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...ALTHOUGH MKC WILL HAVE THE BEST SHOT FOR RAIN.  SHARP
CEILING GRADIENT NOTED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE AND OBS...MAINLY ALONG
700MB AXIS STRETCHING ACROSS THE STATE.  WILL STAY WITH PERIOD OF
VFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON AS AXIS DRIFTS SOUTHWARD.  STRENGTHENING LLJ
WILL PUSH AXIS FURTHER NORTH THIS EVENING...SO LIFT LOWER MVFR
STRATUS DECK BACK NORTHWARD BY 04Z. MAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR
CIGS/VISIBILITIES FRI MORNING ALONG STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXPECTED TO DRIFT BACK NORTHWARD.

DUX

&&

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM FRIDAY FOR MOZ025-MOZ032-MOZ033
-MOZ038-MOZ039-MOZ040-MOZ043-MOZ044-MOZ045-MOZ046-MOZ053-MOZ054.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM FRIDAY FOR KSZ057-KSZ060.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
108 PM CDT THU JUN 28 2007

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-291100-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-
JOHNSON KS-ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-
PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-
BUCHANAN-CLINTON-CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-
RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-
CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
108 PM CDT THU JUN 28 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL
AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A LARGE SWATH OF HEAVY SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA THROUGH THIS
EVENING. A BRIEF LULL IN ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. SINCE THE ONSET OF THE
RAIN...AT LEAST TWO INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN GENERALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF A PAOLA KANSAS...TO LEXINGTON TO MACON MISSOURI LINE...WITH
POCKETS OF RAIN IN EXCESS OF 4 INCHES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF UP TO ONE
INCH WILL BE COMMON GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A PAOLA TO BOONVILLE
LINE THROUGH THIS EVENING. EXPECTED RAINFALL WILL COMBINE TO
AGGRAVATE AREA RIVERS ALREADY SWOLLEN BY PREVIOUS RAINFALL...LEADING
TO ADDITIONAL RIVER FLOODING AND ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING OF SMALLER
RIVERS AND STREAMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT PRODUCING ADDITIONAL FLOODING PROBLEMS DUE TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR THE RAIN MOVE SOUTH AND EAST
INTO THE ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BRINGING AN
END TO THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED...ALTHOUGH REPORTS OF VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING WOULD BE APPRECIATED TODAY.