Tornado Warning 58, NWS Des Moines, IA

000 
WWUS53 KDMX 022326
SVSDMX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
626 PM CDT TUE OCT 2 2007

IAC123-125-135-022336-
/O.CAN.KDMX.TO.W.0058.000000T0000Z-071002T2330Z/
MONROE IA-MAHASKA IA-MARION IA-
626 PM CDT TUE OCT 2 2007

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN MARION...MAHASKA AND
NORTHEASTERN MONROE COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

AT 624 PM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THE 
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE 
AREA...AND NO LONGER POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY. 
THEREFORE...THE TORNADO WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

REPORT TORNADOES...WIND IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH...HAIL LARGER THAN ONE
HALF INCH...OR STORM DAMAGE BY CALLING LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AND
ASKING THEM TO RELAY THE REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4109 9290 4125 9299 4151 9256 4128 9240
      4117 9241 4116 9243 4116 9264 4112 9265
TIME...MOT...LOC 2326Z 249DEG 39KT 4132 9240

$$

BOKSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
302 PM CDT TUE OCT 2 2007

.DISCUSSION...
STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION ACRS IA TODAY HAS LED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE INITIAL BAND OF PCPN HAS PUSHED
ALMOST ENTIRELY EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.  INSTABILITY HAS BEEN
HARD TO COME BY AS EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER HAS LIMITED HEATING AND MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER WEAK.  HAVE RECENTLY SEEN SOME
CONVECTION DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT BUT STRENGTH OF STORMS HAS
REMAINED LIMITED DUE TO LOW INSTABILITY.  EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY INTO THE
EARLY EVENING AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES TO THE EAST.  HOWEVER...EXPECT
GOOD SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT WHICH WL
QUICKLY END PCPN AS THE FRONT PASSES.  WEAK SFC RIDGING WL MOVE ACRS
TONIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES.  WAA WL BEGIN
AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY BEFORE A FRONT SETTLES
TOWARD NORTHERN IA.  WEAK SHORTWAVE WL APPROACH WESTERN IA LATE IN
THE DAY AND BOTH GFS AND NAM HAVE INDICATED A THREAT FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN MOISTURE AXIS NEAR THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. HAVE
CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE FAR WEST AT THAT TIME...BUT REST OF
CWA WL REMAIN DRY.  THE WEAK FORCING FROM THE SHORTWAVE AND NEARBY
BOUNDARY WL PERSIST INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH ANY PCPN THREAT
LIMITED TO THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE CWA NEAR MOISTURE AXIS.

WESTERN TROF WL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE
PULLING OUT INTO THE PLAINS ON SUNDAY.  STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO
THE FINAL OUTCOME AS MODELS WAVER BETWEEN SOLUTIONS FROM RUN TO
RUN.  IT DOES NOW APPEAR THAT TEMPS WL BE SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER ON
SUNDAY AS UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF WEST OF IA WITH WARM SECTOR OVER THE
STATE.  HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS AND POPS OVER THE WEEKEND FOR A WARMER
SOLUTION AND RELATIVELY DRIER CONDITIONS UNTIL THE APPROACH OF THE
BOUNDARY ON SUNDAY.  LINGERING THREAT OF PCPN WL REMAIN ACRS THE FAR
NORTH ON MONDAY AS UPPER LOW MEANDERS TO THE EAST THROUGH MINNESOTA
AS TEMPERATURES COOL TO MORE NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION...02/18Z
THUNDER CONTINUES OVER THE REGION THROUGH 03/02Z ... WITH MVFR CIGS
AND VSBYS OCNL DOWN TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN HEAVIER ELEMENTS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. WINDS MAY GUST TO 45 MPH IN
STRONGER STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING OVER THE
SOUTHEAST. CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE VFR OR MVFR. STRONG COLD FRONT TO PASS
EAST OF REGION THIS EVENING WITH BRIEF GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND
CLEARING...VFR CIGS FROM 04Z THROUGH END OF TAF PERIOD.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

LONG TERM...COGIL
AVIATION/SHORT TERM...REV

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
518 PM CDT TUE OCT 2 2007

IAZ049-050-061-062-074-075-084>086-095>097-032230-
MARSHALL-TAMA-JASPER-POWESHIEK-MARION-MAHASKA-LUCAS-MONROE-
WAPELLO-WAYNE-APPANOOSE-DAVIS-
518 PM CDT TUE OCT 2 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS EAST AND SOUTHEAST CENTRAL IOWA
THROUGH 7 PM...EAST OF A LINE FROM MARSHALLTOWN TO CORYDON. ISOLATED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS TO 65 MPH THE
PRIMARY THREAT. THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES IS LOW BUT NOT ZERO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SCATTERED NON SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. AT
THIS TIME THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH 7 PM THIS EVENING.

IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>039-044>048-057>060-070>073-
081>083-092>094-032230-
EMMET-KOSSUTH-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-PALO ALTO-HANCOCK-CERRO GORDO-
POCAHONTAS-HUMBOLDT-WRIGHT-FRANKLIN-BUTLER-BREMER-SAC-CALHOUN-
WEBSTER-HAMILTON-HARDIN-GRUNDY-BLACK HAWK-CRAWFORD-CARROLL-GREENE-
BOONE-STORY-AUDUBON-GUTHRIE-DALLAS-POLK-CASS-ADAIR-MADISON-WARREN-
ADAMS-UNION-CLARKE-TAYLOR-RINGGOLD-DECATUR-
518 PM CDT TUE OCT 2 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SCATTERED NON SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. AT
THIS TIME THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

MOYER/KINNEY