Severe Thunderstorm Warning 366, NWS Des Moines, IA

000 
WWUS53 KDMX 021253
SVSDMX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
753 AM CDT TUE OCT 2 2007

IAC009-027-029-077-021315-
/O.CON.KDMX.SV.W.0366.000000T0000Z-071002T1315Z/
CASS IA-CARROLL IA-GUTHRIE IA-AUDUBON IA-
753 AM CDT TUE OCT 2 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 815 AM CDT
FOR AUDUBON...NORTHWESTERN GUTHRIE...SOUTHEASTERN CARROLL AND
NORTHWESTERN CASS COUNTIES...

AT 749 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR AUDUBON AIRPORT...OR
ABOUT 54 MILES SOUTHEAST OF IDA GROVE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  DEDHAM BY 805 AM CDT...
  COON RAPIDS BY 810 AM CDT...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 80 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 49 AND 60.

PREPARE FOR DAMAGING WINDS...FALLING TREES AND FLYING DEBRIS. MOVE
INDOORS AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. IF YOU LIVE IN A MOBILE HOME...
SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY BUILDING.

LAT...LON 4151 9516 4152 9507 4159 9507 4161 9512
      4170 9512 4194 9495 4187 9463 4186 9463
      4183 9448 4142 9505 4150 9517
TIME...MOT...LOC 1253Z 213DEG 43KT 4174 9484

$$

DONAVON

000 
WWUS53 KDMX 021303
SVSDMX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
803 AM CDT TUE OCT 2 2007

IAC029-021313-
/O.CAN.KDMX.SV.W.0366.000000T0000Z-071002T1315Z/
CASS IA-
803 AM CDT TUE OCT 2 2007

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN CASS COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

AT 802 AM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THE 
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE 
AREA...AND NO LONGER POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY. 
THEREFORE...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

REPORT TORNADOES...WIND IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH...HAIL LARGER THAN ONE 
HALF INCH...OR STORM DAMAGE BY CALLING LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AND 
ASKING THEM TO RELAY THE REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4150 9494 4194 9495 4187 9463 4186 9463
      4183 9448
TIME...MOT...LOC 1303Z 213DEG 43KT 4179 9472

$$

IAC009-027-077-021315-
/O.CON.KDMX.SV.W.0366.000000T0000Z-071002T1315Z/
CARROLL IA-GUTHRIE IA-AUDUBON IA-
803 AM CDT TUE OCT 2 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 815 AM CDT
FOR EASTERN AUDUBON...NORTHWESTERN GUTHRIE AND SOUTHEASTERN CARROLL
COUNTIES...

AT 802 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF COON
RAPIDS...OR ABOUT 54 MILES SOUTHEAST OF IDA GROVE...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 45 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  COON RAPIDS BY 810 AM CDT...

PREPARE FOR DAMAGING WINDS...FALLING TREES AND FLYING DEBRIS. MOVE
INDOORS AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. IF YOU LIVE IN A MOBILE HOME...
SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY BUILDING.

REPORT TORNADOES...WIND IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH...HAIL LARGER THAN ONE
HALF INCH...OR STORM DAMAGE BY CALLING LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AND
ASKING THEM TO RELAY THE REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4150 9494 4194 9495 4187 9463 4186 9463
      4183 9448
TIME...MOT...LOC 1303Z 213DEG 43KT 4179 9472

$$

JUNGBLUTH

000 
WWUS53 KDMX 021315
SVSDMX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
815 AM CDT TUE OCT 2 2007

IAC009-027-077-021325-
/O.EXP.KDMX.SV.W.0366.000000T0000Z-071002T1315Z/
CARROLL IA-GUTHRIE IA-AUDUBON IA-
815 AM CDT TUE OCT 2 2007

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN AUDUBON...NORTHWESTERN
GUTHRIE AND SOUTHEASTERN CARROLL COUNTIES EXPIRED AT 815 AM CDT...

AT 810 AM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THE
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE AREA.
THEREFORE...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE.

IF SEVERE WEATHER OCCURRED IN YOUR AREA...REPORT WIND IN EXCESS OF 
50 MPH...HAIL LARGER THAN ONE HALF INCH...OR STORM DAMAGE BY CALLING 
LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AND ASKING THEM TO RELAY THE REPORT TO THE 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4150 9494 4194 9495 4187 9463 4186 9463
      4183 9448
TIME...MOT...LOC 1315Z 213DEG 43KT 4191 9461

$$

JUNGBLUTH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
320 AM CDT TUE OCT 2 2007

.DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE NEAR TERM IS THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER
STRONGLY FORCED FRONTAL SYSTEM TODAY. STRONG WAA AND MOISTURE
TRANSPORT IS UNDERWAY EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA AND
WESTERN IOWA. CURRENT LAPS SOUNDINGS ACROSS SW IA INDICATE PLENTY OF
DRY AIR TO OVERCOME BELOW ABOUT 15K FEET...BUT THE NAM/GFS/RUC ALL
QUICKLY SATURATE AND GENERATE PRECIP ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS AFTER
12Z. ELEVATED INSTABILITY COULD SUPPORT A LIMITED HAIL THREAT THIS
MORNING. OTHERWISE...THE FAR SOUTHEAST REMAINS OUTLOOKED IN SLIGHT
RISK. SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL AGAIN BE DEPENDENT ON AMOUNT OF
AFTERNOON INSOLATION. THE NAM MAY BE OVERDONE AT 1500-2000 J/KG
CAPE...BUT GIVEN ENOUGH AFTERNOON HEATING...LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND LOW
LCLS WOULD SUPPORT A TORNADO THREAT IN ADDITION TO STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS.

CONVECTION WILL QUICKLY HEAD EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 00Z
THIS EVENING. ZONAL UPPER FLOW WILL THEN GRADUALLY RETURN TO
SOUTHWESTERLY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WHEN AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. WILL
CONTINUE TO CARRY CHC POPS...ESPECIALLY NORTH HALF THURSDAY NIGHT AS
A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE STATE. THE MOST FAVORABLE MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY SHOULD STAY JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF
IOWA...WHERE THE NEW DAY 3 SLIGHT RISK IS OUTLOOKED. AS WE LOOK
AHEAD TO THE WEEKEND...THE GFS CONTINUES TO HAVE MAJOR CONSISTENCY
ISSUES. THE 01/12Z RUN HAD THE H5 LOW ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY BY 12Z
TUESDAY...AND THE 02/00Z RUN NOW HAS IT IN ONTARIO AT THE SAME TIME.
THE ECMWF BRINGS A COLD FRONT INTO WESTERN IOWA BY SATURDAY
EVENING...AND THEN MAINTAINS A CUTOFF LOW NEAR IOWA ALL THE WAY INTO
NEXT TUESDAY. WITH SUCH A MUDDLED PICTURE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE...NO
SENSE IN MAKING ANY MAJOR CHANGES RIGHT NOW AND WILL KEEP POPS GOING
FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. DAY SHIFT CAN RE-EVALUATE AND ADJUST WHERE
NECESSARY.

&&

.AVIATION...02/06Z
LIGHT RADAR RETURNS ACROSS NEBRASKA INDICATE MID-LEVEL SATURATION IS
PROGRESSING AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
WITH STRONG SW FLOW AND APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH. WILL MENTION
A 6 HR WINDOW OF CONVECTION FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY...BEGINNING AT
15Z AT KFOD...AND STAGGERED TO 18Z AT KOTM.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

LONG TERM...KINNEY
SHORT TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...SMALL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
429 AM CDT TUE OCT 2 2007

IAZ050-060>062-072>075-081>086-092>097-031100-
TAMA-POLK-JASPER-POWESHIEK-MADISON-WARREN-MARION-MAHASKA-ADAMS-
UNION-CLARKE-LUCAS-MONROE-WAPELLO-TAYLOR-RINGGOLD-DECATUR-WAYNE-
APPANOOSE-DAVIS-
429 AM CDT TUE OCT 2 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN IOWA...SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM CORNING...TO DES
MOINES...TO TAMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST IOWA FROM
LATE MORNING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE PRIMARY
THREAT IS DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS OVER 70 MPH. AN ISOLATED
TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR MORE ARE
POSSIBLE TODAY...BUT THE FAST MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS WILL PRECLUDE
ANY FLOOD THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

ISOLATED NON SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. AT THIS TIME THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING...SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM CORNING...TO DES MOINES...TO
TAMA.

IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>039-044>049-057>059-070-071-031100-
EMMET-KOSSUTH-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-PALO ALTO-HANCOCK-CERRO GORDO-
POCAHONTAS-HUMBOLDT-WRIGHT-FRANKLIN-BUTLER-BREMER-SAC-CALHOUN-
WEBSTER-HAMILTON-HARDIN-GRUNDY-BLACK HAWK-CRAWFORD-CARROLL-GREENE-
BOONE-STORY-MARSHALL-AUDUBON-GUTHRIE-DALLAS-CASS-ADAIR-
429 AM CDT TUE OCT 2 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN IOWA...NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM CORNING...TO DES
MOINES...TO TAMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
IOWA TODAY. ISOLATED STORMS WITH PENNY SIZED HAIL ARE NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION...BUT THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SCATTERED NON SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. AT
THIS TIME THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

KINNEY