Severe Thunderstorm Warning 88, NWS Des Moines, IA

000 
WWUS53 KDMX 222111
SVSDMX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
411 PM CDT SUN APR 22 2007

IAC029-222121-
/O.EXP.KDMX.SV.W.0088.000000T0000Z-070422T2115Z/
CASS IA-
411 PM CDT SUN APR 22 2007

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CASS COUNTY HAS BEEN ALLOWED
TO EXPIRE...

AT 410 PM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THE
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE AREA.
THEREFORE...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE.

REPORT TORNADOES...WIND IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH...HAIL LARGER THAN ONE
HALF INCH...OR STORM DAMAGE BY CALLING LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AND
ASKING THEM TO RELAY THE REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4125 9511 4124 9482 4151 9471 4150 9508

$$

VACHALEK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
325 PM CDT SUN APR 22 2007

.DISCUSSION...
PATTERN TO REMAIN ACTIVE THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH A COUPLE OF SYSTEMS
TRAVELING THROUGH THE WESTERLIES.  CURRENTLY...UPPER LOW TRAVERSING
NEBRASKA WITH FIRST BATCH OF CONVECTION IN AREA OF GOOD THETA-E
ADVECTION AND DECENT MIDLEVEL FORCING.  MOST OF THE CONVECTION HAS
REMAINED BELOW SEVERE CRITERIA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER...
CLEARING IS OCCURRING IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THIS FIRST LINE OF
CONVECTION WITH DECENT DESTABILIZATION OCCURRING IN WESTERN IA.
SHEAR PARAMETERS SUFFICIENT FOR SVR WEATHER WITH CAPE BECOMING THE
LIMITING FACTOR.  WL BE MONITORING THIS CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS FOR EXTENT OF INCREASE AND HOW ANY TORNADO THREAT EVOLVES.
OTHERWISE...UPPER LOW WL TRACK THROUGH IA OVERNIGHT WITH
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING TO SPREAD NORTHEAST WITH TIME.  OVERALL SVR
THREAT WL GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING AS CAPE DIMINISHES
AND SYSTEM PULLS EAST.  GOOD SUBSIDENCE AFTER 06Z AND EXPECT MOST
PCPN TO END WEST OF I35 BY MIDNIGHT AND BY 09Z IN MOST OF CWA.

QUIET WX ON MONDAY WITH SFC RIDGING AHEAD OF UPPER LOW DROPPING INTO
SW UNITED STATES.  WL SEE STRONG THETA-E AND WAA DEVELOP MONDAY
NIGHT AHEAD AS STRONG CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE.
APPEARS THUNDERSTORMS WL DEVELOP ACRS KS AND NEBRASKA DURING THE
NIGHT AND PUSH ENE TOWARD IA.  LIKELY WL REMAIN DRY MOST OF THE
NIGHT WITH PCPN EDGING INTO THE WEST TOWARD MORNING.  FOR TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY...WL SEE WARM FRONT SET UP JUST SOUTH OF THE IA/MO
BORDER WITH RELATIVELY STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW HEADING INTO THIS
BOUNDARY.  EXPECT PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THIS TIME WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL.  SOME LOCATIONS MAY
SEE IN EXCESS OF 3 INCHES WITH WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCH AMOUNTS.  WE
CAN TAKE SOME WATER AT THIS TIME...BUT IF WE BEGIN TO SEE WIDESPREAD
AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES...THEN FLOODING WL BECOME A BIG
CONCERN. SVR WEATHER DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A LARGE CONCERN AT THIS
TIME AND ANY THUNDERSTORMS WOULD LIKELY BE ELEVATED HAIL PRODUCERS.

EXTENDED MODELS BECOMING MORE ZONAL LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND WITH LESS THREAT OF PCPN INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.  HAVE
LEFT SOME LOW POPS DURING THIS TIME WITH FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE
STATE...BUT PCPN AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT AND SCATTERED.  TEMPERATURES
ALSO HAVE BEEN RAISED IN LATER PERIODS WITH SOUTHWEST SFC FLOW WHICH
IS USUALLY CONDUCIVE TO DAYTIME HIGHS HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

COGIL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
338 PM CDT SUN APR 22 2007

IAZ015-023-024-033>035-044>047-057>059-070>072-081>083-092>094-
232045-
PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-HUMBOLDT-SAC-CALHOUN-WEBSTER-CRAWFORD-
CARROLL-GREENE-BOONE-AUDUBON-GUTHRIE-DALLAS-CASS-ADAIR-MADISON-
ADAMS-UNION-CLARKE-TAYLOR-RINGGOLD-DECATUR-
338 PM CDT SUN APR 22 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
WESTERN IOWA MAINLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 35.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. A FEW STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH 65 MPH WINDS AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES. A STORM OR TWO MAY PRODUCE NICKEL SIZED HAIL AS WELL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN ARE FORECAST
BEGINNING LATE MONDAY AND SPREADING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
TUESDAY. CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL OF 2
TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED 4 INCH AMOUNTS IS THE PRIMARY THREAT
WITH THIS SYSTEM.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON
THROUGH 9 PM TONIGHT.

IAZ004>007-016-017-025>028-036>039-048>050-060>062-073>075-
084>086-095>097-232045-
EMMET-KOSSUTH-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-HANCOCK-CERRO GORDO-WRIGHT-FRANKLIN-
BUTLER-BREMER-HAMILTON-HARDIN-GRUNDY-BLACK HAWK-STORY-MARSHALL-
TAMA-POLK-JASPER-POWESHIEK-WARREN-MARION-MAHASKA-LUCAS-MONROE-
WAPELLO-WAYNE-APPANOOSE-DAVIS-
338 PM CDT SUN APR 22 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EAST
CENTRAL IOWA MAINLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 35.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS
EVENING. WINDS TO 65 MPH AND NICKEL SIZED HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN ARE FORECAST
BEGINNING LATE MONDAY AND SPREADING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
TUESDAY. CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL OF 2
TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED 4 INCH AMOUNTS IS THE PRIMARY THREAT
WITH THIS SYSTEM.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON
THROUGH 10 PM THIS EVENING.

DONAVON