Severe Thunderstorm Warning 35, NWS Des Moines, IA

000 
WWUS53 KDMX 311927
SVSDMX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
226 PM CDT SAT MAR 31 2007

IAC051-312000-
/O.CON.KDMX.SV.W.0035.000000T0000Z-070331T2000Z/
DAVIS IA-
226 PM CDT SAT MAR 31 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR DAVIS COUNTY
UNTIL 300 PM CDT...

AT 224 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR BLOOMFIELD...OR 16 MILES SOUTH OF OTTUMWA...MOVING NORTH
AT 40 MPH.

THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF DAVIS
COUNTY...INCLUDING THE TOWNS OF DRAKESVILLE...BLOOMFIELD AND FLORIS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE TORNADOES WITH LITTLE OR NO WARNING.
ALTHOUGH NOT IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED ACT QUICKLY
AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A
BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

AT 224 PM...DAVIS COUNTY LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED QUARTER SIZE HAIL 
IN BLOOMFIELD. THE STORM HAS ALSO HAD A HISTORY OF PRODUCING 60 MPH 
WINDS.

LAT...LON 4060 9259 4061 9233 4090 9220 4089 9262

$$

KINNEY/MOYER

000 
WWUS53 KDMX 311955
SVSDMX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
255 PM CDT SAT MAR 31 2007

IAC051-312005-
/O.EXP.KDMX.SV.W.0035.000000T0000Z-070331T2000Z/
DAVIS IA-
255 PM CDT SAT MAR 31 2007

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR DAVIS COUNTY WILL EXPIRE AT
300 PM CDT...

AT 254 PM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THE
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE WEAKENED...AND NO
LONGER POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY. THEREFORE...THE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

REPORT TORNADOES...WIND IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH...HAIL LARGER THAN ONE
HALF INCH...OR STORM DAMAGE BY CALLING LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AND
ASKING THEM TO RELAY THE REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4060 9259 4061 9233 4090 9220 4089 9262

$$

KINNEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
300 AM CDT SAT MAR 31 2007

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN FOCUS IS TIMING EXTENT AND AMOUNT OF RAIN TODAY AS RATHER
COMPLEX SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING HEAVY RAINS TO THE AREA.
IN LONGER TERM FOCUS REMAINS ON SEVERAL SYSTEM AROUND MID WEEK AND
TRANSITION TO COOLER WEATHER WITH THE THREAT OF SEVERE.

TODAY MODELS HAVE FINALLY COME TOGETHER IN TRACK OF SURFACE AND
UPPER LOW SYSTEMS.  QPF SOMEWHAT LIGHTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE
LAST FEW DAYS HOWEVER THERE REMAINS POTENTIAL OVER FFA AREA SO WILL
LEAVE THAT IN AFFECT.  SPC HAS ENTIRE CWA IN SLIGHT RISK WITH MIXED
IDEAS ON THREATS.  POTENTIAL RESTS STRONGLY ON MOVEMENT OF SYSTEMS
WHETHER WE CAN GET ANY HEAT FOR RAPID DESTABILIZATION AND EXACT
MOVEMENT OF SURFACE LOW AS WELL AS DRY SLOT AS PORTRAYED BY MODELS.
DYNAMICAL FIELDS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE WITH GOOD SHEAR.  SUGGESTION OF
SOME ISOLATED TORNADOES REASONABLE.  TONIGHT LATEST MODEL RUNS
TOGETHER ON LINGERING SYSTEM THOUGH SOME QUESTIONS ON EXACT ENDING
TIME OF RAIN WITH EVEN MORE QUESTIONABLE TIMING ON SUNDAY AS MODELS
HAVE HIGHER POPS ON SUNDAY.  LOOKING AT TIMING HAVE LEFT CHANCES IN
NORTHEASTERN HALF OF CWA FOR SUNDAY MORNING THEN DIMINISHED AREA FOR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS DYNAMICAL FIELDS WEAKEN WITH BEST NORTHEAST OF
CWA.  THERE IS SOME QUESTION LEFT IN MY MIND AS TO WHETHER WEAK LOBE
COULD ROTATE AROUND SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH
LIGHT PCPN.  TEMPERATURES HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE WITH SOME
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR CLOUD COVER AND PCPN.  FARTHER OUT RAIN WILL
COME INTO QUESTION ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF
SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING COOLING TO THE STATE.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY

IAZ004>007-0015>017-23>026-033>037-
044>048-057>060-070>073-081>083-092>094-
IAZ004>007-0015>017-23>026-033>037-044>048-
057>060-070>073-081>083-092>094-

&&

FORSTER/154/30

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1248 PM CDT SAT MAR 31 2007

IAZ004>006-015-016-023>025-033>036-044>048-057>061-070>074-
081>085-092>096-011800-
EMMET-KOSSUTH-WINNEBAGO-PALO ALTO-HANCOCK-POCAHONTAS-HUMBOLDT-
WRIGHT-SAC-CALHOUN-WEBSTER-HAMILTON-CRAWFORD-CARROLL-GREENE-BOONE-
STORY-AUDUBON-GUTHRIE-DALLAS-POLK-JASPER-CASS-ADAIR-MADISON-
WARREN-MARION-ADAMS-UNION-CLARKE-LUCAS-MONROE-TAYLOR-RINGGOLD-
DECATUR-WAYNE-APPANOOSE-
1248 PM CDT SAT MAR 31 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS AS THE AIR BECOMES
UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES
AND LARGE HAIL...WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS A LESSER THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON HOWEVER
THERE IS MODEL UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER THE STORMS WILL BECOME
SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

A CONFERENCE CALL FOR EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATORS WILL BE
CONDUCTED AT 115 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON. SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY
BECOME NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

IAZ007-017-026>028-037>039-049-050-062-075-086-097-011800-
WORTH-CERRO GORDO-FRANKLIN-BUTLER-BREMER-HARDIN-GRUNDY-BLACK HAWK-
MARSHALL-TAMA-POWESHIEK-MAHASKA-WAPELLO-DAVIS-
1248 PM CDT SAT MAR 31 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS AS THE AIR BECOMES
UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES
AND LARGE HAIL...WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS A LESSER THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON HOWEVER
THERE IS MODEL UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER THE STORMS WILL BECOME
SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

A CONFERENCE CALL FOR EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATORS WILL BE
CONDUCTED AT 115 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON. SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY
BECOME NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MOYER