Severe Thunderstorm Warning 261, NWS Des Moines, IA

000 
WWUS53 KDMX 122354
SVSDMX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
653 PM CDT SUN AUG 12 2007

IAC001-130015-
/O.CON.KDMX.SV.W.0261.000000T0000Z-070813T0015Z/
ADAIR IA-
653 PM CDT SUN AUG 12 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 715 PM CDT
FOR ADAIR COUNTY...

AT 649 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A LINE OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70
MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM STUART TO
FONTANELLE...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 39 MILES WEST OF DES
MOINES TO 51 MILES SOUTHWEST OF DES MOINES...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  RURAL EASTERN ADAIR COUNTY AT 710 PM CDT

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 80 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 74 AND 96.

FOR YOUR PROTECTION GO TO THE BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE
LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS. THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL
TO CAUSE SERIOUS INJURY AND SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO PROPERTY.

AT 641 PM CDT...A 71 MPH WIND GUST WAS REPORTED ON AN AUTOMATED 
WEATHER STATION NEAR ADAIR ALONG THE INTERSTATE.

LAT...LON 4151 9465 4150 9464 4151 9425 4116 9425
      4116 9471 4120 9471 4121 9470 4151 9470
TIME...MOT...LOC 2353Z 270DEG 41KT 4149 9431 4129 9447

$$

000 
WWUS53 KDMX 130017
SVSDMX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
717 PM CDT SUN AUG 12 2007

IAC001-130027-
/O.EXP.KDMX.SV.W.0261.000000T0000Z-070813T0015Z/
ADAIR IA-
717 PM CDT SUN AUG 12 2007

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR ADAIR COUNTY EXPIRES AT 715 PM
CDT...

AT 714 PM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THE
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE AREA.
THEREFORE...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE.

LAT...LON 4151 9465 4150 9464 4151 9425 4116 9425
      4116 9471 4120 9471 4121 9470 4151 9470
TIME...MOT...LOC 2354Z 270DEG 41KT 4149 9429 4129 9446

$$

COGIL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
625 PM CDT SUN AUG 12 2007

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.DISCUSSION...
BOUNDARY HAS SLID THROUGH THE STATE AND INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON.  SOME WEAK CAA BEHIND THE BOUNDARY HAS KEPT
TEMPERATURES IN CHECK ACRS THE NORTH BUT LOW TO MID 90S STILL EXIST
IN THE FAR SOUTH.  MOISTURE POOLING NEAR THE BOUNDARY HAS KEPT
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S WITH HEAT INDICES HOLDING RIGHT AT 105 THIS
AFTERNOON NEAR THE MISSOURI BORDER.  OTHERWISE...CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
IS PUSHING THROUGH NEBRASKA AND WL LIKELY FOLLOW INSTABILITY AXIS
INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA LATER TODAY.

OVERNIGHT CONCERN WL FOCUS ON PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH OF CONVECTION
CURRENTLY IN NEBRASKA.  GIVEN MLCAPES OF OVER 3000 J/KG...SOME
SEVERE STORMS WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE...HOWEVER INSTABILITY IS
LOCATED ONLY IN FAR SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND EXPECT THIS
INITIAL CONVECTION TO MAINLY STAY SOUTH OF A KCIN-KLWD LINE.
HOWEVER...WL CONTINUE TO SEE STRONG MOISTURE AND THERMAL ADVECTION
INTO WESTERN IOWA OVERNIGHT WITH THE THREAT OF SOME CONVECTION
REMAINING...PRIMARILY WEST OF I35.  SOME RESIDUAL STORMS MAY
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY MORNING ACRS NORTH CENTRAL IOWA...HOWEVER CAP
WL BE INCREASING DURING THE DAY WHICH SHOULD GRADUALLY END THE
THREAT OF CONVECTION BY MIDDAY.  TEMPS TO REBOUND NICELY AS THERMAL
RIDGE BUILDS TOWARD THE STATE ALTHOUGH SOME CLDS MAY KEEP READINGS
IN CHECK ACRS THE NORTH.  NEXT SHORTWAVE IN FLOW WL PASS ACRS THE
NORTHERN MIDWEST LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY.  EXPECT CONVECTION
TO IGNITE ACRS MN/WI MONDAY AFTERNOON AND DROP SOUTHEAST TOWARD
NORTHEAST IOWA MONDAY NIGHT.  THIS CONVECTION MAY GRAZE THE
NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND HAVE LEFT POPS IN ACRS THOSE
LOCATIONS.

REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WL HAVE A BOUNDARY IN VICINITY OF THE
STATE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.  SOME COOLER AIR SHOULD INFILTRATE THE
STATE BY MID TO LATE WEEK WITH THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING
LATE AND OVERNIGHT PERIODS.  HAVE DROPPED TEMPS SOME BY LATE IN THE
WEEK BUT CONTINUED THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...13/00Z
MAIN CONCERN EARLY ON IS STRONG BOWING THUNDERSTORM LINE THAT WILL
MOVE ACROSS SRN IA BETWEEN 00Z AND 05Z. KDSM WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
FOR WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 KT BETWEEN 00Z AND 01Z...BUT
CERTAINLY WILL HAVE A PERIOD OF LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 02Z WITH
RA AND EMBEDDED TS UNTIL 03Z OR SO. KOTM WILL ALSO BE IN THE PATH OF
THIS STRONG SYSTEM...BUT TSRA EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER WHEN IT
GETS THERE. OTHERWISE...THERE IS A CHANCE OF TSRA DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT AND IMPACTING KFOD...KMCW AND KALO...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION MORE THAN PROB30 AT THIS POINT. SOME MVFR TO
LIFR FOG LIKELY AT KDSM AND KOTM OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS FOR
MONDAY.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...FORSTER/20/14/4
MID/LONG TERM...COGIL
AVIATION...MOYER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
405 PM CDT SUN AUG 12 2007

IAZ057-058-070>075-081>086-092>097-131100-
AUDUBON-GUTHRIE-CASS-ADAIR-MADISON-WARREN-MARION-MAHASKA-ADAMS-
UNION-CLARKE-LUCAS-MONROE-WAPELLO-TAYLOR-RINGGOLD-DECATUR-WAYNE-
APPANOOSE-DAVIS-
405 PM CDT SUN AUG 12 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
IOWA...GENERALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN IOWA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE VERY
STRONG STRAIGHT LINE WIND GUSTS AROUND 80 MPH AND HAIL AROUND ONE
INCH IN DIAMETER. AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE THROUGH
EARLY EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER EXTREME SOUTHWEST IOWA...ALONG AND
SOUTHWEST OF A CORNING TO MOUNT AYR LINE. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

HOT WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR TUESDAY. AFTERNOON HEAT
INDICES WILL REACH 100 TO 108 DEGREES. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE
AND ALSO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH THIS EVENING AND AGAIN
OVERNIGHT. ACTIVATION MAY ALSO BE NEEDED FOR DURING THE PERIOD
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>039-044>050-059>062-131100-
EMMET-KOSSUTH-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-PALO ALTO-HANCOCK-CERRO GORDO-
POCAHONTAS-HUMBOLDT-WRIGHT-FRANKLIN-BUTLER-BREMER-SAC-CALHOUN-
WEBSTER-HAMILTON-HARDIN-GRUNDY-BLACK HAWK-CRAWFORD-CARROLL-GREENE-
BOONE-STORY-MARSHALL-TAMA-DALLAS-POLK-JASPER-POWESHIEK-
405 PM CDT SUN AUG 12 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN IOWA...GENERALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM WITH 60
MPH WINDS AND PENNY SIZE HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

HOT WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR TUESDAY. AFTERNOON HEAT
INDICES WILL REACH 95 TO 105 DEGREES. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE AND
ALSO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED FOR TONIGHT...BUT MAY BE
NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE PERIOD TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

REV/KINNEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
618 PM CDT SUN AUG 12 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0617 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 ESE KIMBALLTON        41.62N 95.03W
08/12/2007                   AUDUBON            IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            6-8 INCH TREE LIMBS DOWN

&&

GFORSTER