Severe Thunderstorm Warning 258, NWS Des Moines, IA

000 
WWUS53 KDMX 122315
SVSDMX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
614 PM CDT SUN AUG 12 2007

IAC009-122345-
/O.CON.KDMX.SV.W.0258.000000T0000Z-070812T2345Z/
AUDUBON IA-
614 PM CDT SUN AUG 12 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 645 PM CDT
FOR AUDUBON COUNTY...

AT 611 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A LINE OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70
MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM AUDUBON
AIRPORT TO BRAYTON...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 52 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF IDA GROVE TO 63 MILES SOUTHEAST OF IDA GROVE...MOVING
EAST AT 50 MPH.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  RURAL SOUTHEASTERN AUDUBON COUNTY AT 630 PM CDT

FOR YOUR PROTECTION GO TO THE BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE
LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS. THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL
TO CAUSE SERIOUS INJURY AND SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO PROPERTY.

AT 610 PM CDT...A STORM SPOTTER 3 MILES SOUTHEAST OF KIMBALLTON 
REPORTED 6 TO 8 INCH DIAMETER TREE BRANCHES STRIPPED OFF TREES.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT
SUNDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHERN IOWA.

LAT...LON 4186 9510 4186 9476 4160 9476 4160 9471
      4151 9471 4151 9505 4161 9505 4161 9511
TIME...MOT...LOC 2314Z 270DEG 44KT 4170 9488 4152 9489

$$

KINNEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
257 PM CDT SUN AUG 12 2007

.DISCUSSION...
BOUNDARY HAS SLID THROUGH THE STATE AND INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON.  SOME WEAK CAA BEHIND THE BOUNDARY HAS KEPT
TEMPERATURES IN CHECK ACRS THE NORTH BUT LOW TO MID 90S STILL EXIST
IN THE FAR SOUTH.  MOISTURE POOLING NEAR THE BOUNDARY HAS KEPT
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S WITH HEAT INDICES HOLDING RIGHT AT 105 THIS
AFTERNOON NEAR THE MISSOURI BORDER.  OTHERWISE...CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
IS PUSHING THROUGH NEBRASKA AND WL LIKELY FOLLOW INSTABILITY AXIS
INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA LATER TODAY.

OVERNIGHT CONCERN WL FOCUS ON PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH OF CONVECTION
CURRENTLY IN NEBRASKA.  GIVEN MLCAPES OF OVER 3000 J/KG...SOME
SEVERE STORMS WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE...HOWEVER INSTABILITY IS
LOCATED ONLY IN FAR SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND EXPECT THIS
INITIAL CONVECTION TO MAINLY STAY SOUTH OF A KCIN-KLWD LINE.
HOWEVER...WL CONTINUE TO SEE STRONG MOISTURE AND THERMAL ADVECTION
INTO WESTERN IOWA OVERNIGHT WITH THE THREAT OF SOME CONVECTION
REMAINING...PRIMARILY WEST OF I35.  SOME RESIDUAL STORMS MAY
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY MORNING ACRS NORTH CENTRAL IOWA...HOWEVER CAP
WL BE INCREASING DURING THE DAY WHICH SHOULD GRADUALLY END THE
THREAT OF CONVECTION BY MIDDAY.  TEMPS TO REBOUND NICELY AS THERMAL
RIDGE BUILDS TOWARD THE STATE ALTHOUGH SOME CLDS MAY KEEP READINGS
IN CHECK ACRS THE NORTH.  NEXT SHORTWAVE IN FLOW WL PASS ACRS THE
NORTHERN MIDWEST LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY.  EXPECT CONVECTION
TO IGNITE ACRS MN/WI MONDAY AFTERNOON AND DROP SOUTHEAST TOWARD
NORTHEAST IOWA MONDAY NIGHT.  THIS CONVECTION MAY GRAZE THE
NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND HAVE LEFT POPS IN ACRS THOSE
LOCATIONS.

REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WL HAVE A BOUNDARY IN VICINITY OF THE
STATE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.  SOME COOLER AIR SHOULD INFILTRATE THE
STATE BY MID TO LATE WEEK WITH THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING
LATE AND OVERNIGHT PERIODS.  HAVE DROPPED TEMPS SOME BY LATE IN THE
WEEK BUT CONTINUED THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...12/18Z
SKC THIS AFTERNOON WITH STRONG CAP AND DRY ALOFT LITTLE IF ANY
CLOUDS THOUGH BY EVENING EXPECT CIRRUS TO SPILL OVER INTO THE STATE.
AFTER MIDNIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THOUGH STORMS WILL BE HIGH
BASED 6000 FEET AND VISIBILITY NOT REDUCED GREATLY.  NRLY WINDS
BECOMING MORE EASTERLY THEN SRLY ON MONDAY.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...FORSTER/20/14/4
MID/LONG TERM...COGIL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
405 PM CDT SUN AUG 12 2007

IAZ057-058-070>075-081>086-092>097-131100-
AUDUBON-GUTHRIE-CASS-ADAIR-MADISON-WARREN-MARION-MAHASKA-ADAMS-
UNION-CLARKE-LUCAS-MONROE-WAPELLO-TAYLOR-RINGGOLD-DECATUR-WAYNE-
APPANOOSE-DAVIS-
405 PM CDT SUN AUG 12 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
IOWA...GENERALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN IOWA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE VERY
STRONG STRAIGHT LINE WIND GUSTS AROUND 80 MPH AND HAIL AROUND ONE
INCH IN DIAMETER. AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE THROUGH
EARLY EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER EXTREME SOUTHWEST IOWA...ALONG AND
SOUTHWEST OF A CORNING TO MOUNT AYR LINE. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

HOT WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR TUESDAY. AFTERNOON HEAT
INDICES WILL REACH 100 TO 108 DEGREES. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE
AND ALSO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH THIS EVENING AND AGAIN
OVERNIGHT. ACTIVATION MAY ALSO BE NEEDED FOR DURING THE PERIOD
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>039-044>050-059>062-131100-
EMMET-KOSSUTH-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-PALO ALTO-HANCOCK-CERRO GORDO-
POCAHONTAS-HUMBOLDT-WRIGHT-FRANKLIN-BUTLER-BREMER-SAC-CALHOUN-
WEBSTER-HAMILTON-HARDIN-GRUNDY-BLACK HAWK-CRAWFORD-CARROLL-GREENE-
BOONE-STORY-MARSHALL-TAMA-DALLAS-POLK-JASPER-POWESHIEK-
405 PM CDT SUN AUG 12 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN IOWA...GENERALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM WITH 60
MPH WINDS AND PENNY SIZE HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

HOT WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR TUESDAY. AFTERNOON HEAT
INDICES WILL REACH 95 TO 105 DEGREES. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE AND
ALSO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED FOR TONIGHT...BUT MAY BE
NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE PERIOD TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

REV/KINNEY