Severe Thunderstorm Warning 188, NWS Des Moines, IA

000 
WWUS53 KDMX 040233
SVSDMX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
932 PM CDT TUE JUL 3 2007

IAC025-040300-
/O.CON.KDMX.SV.W.0188.000000T0000Z-070704T0300Z/
CALHOUN IA-
932 PM CDT TUE JUL 3 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT
FOR CALHOUN COUNTY...

AT 930 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS
IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR LAKE CITY...OR
ABOUT 31 MILES SOUTHWEST OF FORT DODGE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO RINARD
AND LOHRVILLE

PREPARE FOR DAMAGING WINDS...FALLING TREES AND FLYING DEBRIS. MOVE
INDOORS AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. IF YOU LIVE IN A MOBILE HOME...
SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY BUILDING.

AT 930 PM...TRAINED SPOTTERS REPORTED 60 MPH WINDS AND TREE BRANCHES 
DOWN 3 MILES NORTHWEST OF LAKE CITY.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR NORTHERN IOWA.

LAT...LON 4257 9447 4221 9442 4221 9486 4247 9486
      4247 9491 4256 9492

$$

SMALL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
900 PM CDT TUE JUL 3 2007

UPDATED AVIATION AND PUBLIC.

.DISCUSSION...

STRONGEST CONVECTION CONTINUES WEST WHERE CLUSTER HAS DEVELOPED AND
SLOWLY DRIFTING SOUTH. INFLOW LIMITED AND CAP SLOWLY ERODING. THREAT
OF SVR LESSENING...BUT WILL MAINTAIN WATCH SOUTH PORTIONS WHILE
NORTHERN SECTIONS WILL BE MODIFIED. TEMPS OVN WILL REMAIN WARM WITH
FRONT PASSING SOUTH TOWARD MORNING AND HAVE RAISED MINS A FEW
DEGREES SOUTH PORTIONS. HAVE TRIMMED POPS AS WELL EAST AND SOUTH
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ONGOING TSRA WEST./REV

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

ATTENTION FOR THIS FORECAST IS FOCUSED ON CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
TONIGHT THROUGH MID DAY WEDNESDAY.   INITIAL THREAT WITH THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY REMAINED NORTH OF THE CWA.  INTERESTINGLY...A GRAVITY WAVE
PUSHED ACROSS THE CWA AND DID TRY TO FIRE CONVECTION ALONG THE
BOUNDARY BUT DESPITE THE 4000 CAPE ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE...THE STORMS
WANED.  MODELS ARE OF LITTLE HELP IN THE SHORT TERM AS THEY ARE OVER
DOING PRECIP AND CONVECTION PROBABLY IN RESPONSE TO THE HIGH CAPE.
SAT IMAGERY TELLS A BETTER STORY WITH CU DEVELOPING ALONG AN OLD
BOUNDARY FROM SIOUX CITY TO YANKTON.  AN MCV TO THE NW WL...BASED ON
MOVEMENT IN SAT TRENDS...ENCOUNTER THIS OLD BOUNDARY THIS EVENING
AND FIRE STORMS ALONG IT.  STORMS SHOULD ENTER THE NW CWA BETWEEN
00Z-02Z.  FROM THAT POINT ON IT SHOULD BE AN ACTIVE NIGHT WITH
STORMS PUSHING ACROSS THE CWA AND ONGOING IN THE MORNING WITH FOCUS
ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT WILL SINK SOUTHEAST THROUGH MID DAY
WEDNESDAY.  SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR THIS EVENT WILL LIKELY BE NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 30 LATER THIS EVENING.  HIGH CAPE AND LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT
LEANS TOWARD LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND.  CONVECTION OVER MN THAT
HAD FIRED ALONG A LEAD PIECE OF THE SHORTWAVE THIS AFTERNOON
EXHIBITED A BOWING STRUCTURE SO I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE WIND
SPEEDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH.  SIMILAR EVENT FOR WEDNESDAY ONLY OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA.  THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO BE SOUTH
OF THE CWA AFT 21Z BUT FLOW IS WEAK SO I DONT EXPECT TO SEE
DIMINISHING POPS UNTIL 00Z.  BEYOND WEDNESDAY...A TRANQUIL WEATHER
PATTERN IS ON TAP.  TEMPS WILL RECOVER BY FRIDAY WITH 90 DEGREE
READINGS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND.  THE NEXT SYSTEM STILL
LOOKS TO AFFECT THE CWA MAINLY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.  A
FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
AND BE THE FOCUS FOR LATE DAY CONVECTION ON DAY 5 AND 6.  THE FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO STALL SOUTH OF THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY SO
THIS FAR OUT I KEPT CHANCE POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF FOR TUESDAY.
LATER RUNS WILL ALLOW FOR REFINEMENT.  TEMPS ON TRACK SO LITTLE
ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED THERE.

&&

.AVIATION...04/00Z

SCT CONVECTION CONTINUES ALONG COLD FRONT SLOWLY WORKING SOUTH INTO
STATE TNT. WDLY SCT TSRA WL CONT MOST RTES OVN WITH FAVORED SECTOR
WEST THIRD WHERE CURRENT STRONGER CLUSTER OF STORMS REMAINS. MOST
CIGS TO REMAIN VFR WITH XCEPTION WEST TAFS/RTES WHERE CIGS MAY
BRIEFLY DROP TO MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

LONG TERM...FAB
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...REV

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
329 PM CDT TUE JUL 3 2007

IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>039-044>050-042030-
EMMET-KOSSUTH-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-PALO ALTO-HANCOCK-CERRO GORDO-
POCAHONTAS-HUMBOLDT-WRIGHT-FRANKLIN-BUTLER-BREMER-SAC-CALHOUN-
WEBSTER-HAMILTON-HARDIN-GRUNDY-BLACK HAWK-CRAWFORD-CARROLL-GREENE-
BOONE-STORY-MARSHALL-TAMA-
329 PM CDT TUE JUL 3 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN IOWA THIS
EVENING AND THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
INITIALLY...LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED
TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE NORTH OF HIGHWAY 20. AS THE EVENING
PROGRESSES...THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL SLOWLY DECREASE WITH
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS REMAINING POSSIBLE UNTIL
AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE...BUT WIDESPREAD
FLASH FLOOD PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT THE
STORMS SHOULD BE BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT IT IS TOO EARLY
TO TELL IF THERE IS A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE NORTH OF HIGHWAY 20 THIS EVENING.
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 20 BY LATE EVENING
INTO TONIGHT.

IAZ057>062-070>075-081>086-092>097-042030-
AUDUBON-GUTHRIE-DALLAS-POLK-JASPER-POWESHIEK-CASS-ADAIR-MADISON-
WARREN-MARION-MAHASKA-ADAMS-UNION-CLARKE-LUCAS-MONROE-WAPELLO-
TAYLOR-RINGGOLD-DECATUR-WAYNE-APPANOOSE-DAVIS-
329 PM CDT TUE JUL 3 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. A FEW STORMS MAY REACH SEVERE
LIMITS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT.
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE OR REDEVELOP
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON SOUTH OF I80 IN SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA. THERE IS A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FROM THESE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREATS. THE STORMS SHOULD MOVE
SOUTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT IT IS TOO EARLY
TO TELL IF THERE IS A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

ALBRECHT