Severe Thunderstorm Warning 139, NWS Des Moines, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
305 PM CDT THU JUN 21 2007

.DISCUSSION...
TOO BUSY HERE...SHORT AFTER TODAYS RAIN WARM AND MOSTLY DRY THOUGH
MID WEEK MODELS PUSHING FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST
WTHH CHANCE POPS.
&&

.AVIATION 22/18Z...

&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

 LONG TERM...FORSTER/71/47/15
AVIATION/SHORT TERM...REV

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1135 AM CDT THU JUN 21 2007

IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>039-044>050-057>062-074-075-221100-
EMMET-KOSSUTH-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-PALO ALTO-HANCOCK-CERRO GORDO-
POCAHONTAS-HUMBOLDT-WRIGHT-FRANKLIN-BUTLER-BREMER-SAC-CALHOUN-
WEBSTER-HAMILTON-HARDIN-GRUNDY-BLACK HAWK-CRAWFORD-CARROLL-GREENE-
BOONE-STORY-MARSHALL-TAMA-AUDUBON-GUTHRIE-DALLAS-POLK-JASPER-
POWESHIEK-MARION-MAHASKA-
1135 AM CDT THU JUN 21 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
NORTH CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY
INCREASING IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE EVENING AND TONIGHT. GOLF BALL
SIZED HAIL...80 MPH WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALL POSSIBLE
BETWEEN 2 PM AND MIDNIGHT. QUARTER SIZED HAIL AND 60 MPH WINDS WILL
REMAIN A THREAT AFTER MIDNIGHT.

IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES IS POSSIBLE. LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WHICH
MAY FALL OVER A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME COULD PRODUCE LOCAL FLASH
FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE THREAT FOR VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OVER 5 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED. FLASH FLOODING AND SIGNIFICANT RISES ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS WOULD BE LIKELY IF THESE AMOUNTS VERIFY.

A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH QUARTER SIZED HAIL AND 60 MPH WINDS POSSIBLE.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO EARLY SATURDAY HOWEVER NO SEVERE
WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ATTENTION EMERGENCY MANAGERS...A CONFERENCE CALL WILL BE CONDUCTED
AT 1 PM THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ESPECIALLY
BETWEEN 3 PM AND MIDNIGHT. ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE AGAIN OF FRIDAY.
RAINFALL REPORTS WOULD BE GREATLY APPRECIATED DURING THE PERIOD AS
WELL.

IAZ070>073-081>086-092>097-221100-
CASS-ADAIR-MADISON-WARREN-ADAMS-UNION-CLARKE-LUCAS-MONROE-WAPELLO-
TAYLOR-RINGGOLD-DECATUR-WAYNE-APPANOOSE-DAVIS-
1135 AM CDT THU JUN 21 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. A FEW STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH QUARTER SIZED HAIL AND 60
MPH WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON FRIDAY ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL AND
65 MPH WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS THOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS
POSSIBLE. HEAVY RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES IS ALSO A THREAT.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY THOUGH NO SEVERE WEATHER
IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ATTENTION EMERGENCY MANAGERS...A CONFERENCE CALL WILL BE CONDUCTED
AT 1 PM THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
IT MAY ALSO BE REQUIRED FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RAINFALL
REPORTS WOULD BE GREATLY APPRECIATED DURING THE PERIOD AS WELL.

DONAVON/REV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
234 PM CDT THU JUN 21 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0231 PM     HAIL             EMMETSBURG              43.11N 94.68W
06/21/2007  E0.88 INCH       PALO ALTO          IA   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

13

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
245 PM CDT THU JUN 21 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0242 PM     HAIL             4 ESE BANCROFT          43.27N 94.14W
06/21/2007  E1.25 INCH       KOSSUTH            IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
253 PM CDT THU JUN 21 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0252 PM     HAIL             CORWITH                 42.99N 93.96W
06/21/2007  E1.75 INCH       HANCOCK            IA   POST OFFICE

&&

PODRAZIK