Severe Thunderstorm Warning 133, NWS Des Moines, IA

000 
WWUS53 KDMX 210528
SVSDMX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1227 AM CDT THU JUN 21 2007

IAC195-210600-
/O.CON.KDMX.SV.W.0133.000000T0000Z-070621T0600Z/
WORTH IA-
1227 AM CDT THU JUN 21 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM CDT
FOR EASTERN WORTH COUNTY...

AT 1226 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR NORTHWOOD...OR ABOUT 15 MILES SOUTH OF HAYWARD...MOVING
SOUTH AT 30 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
KENSETT...GRAFTON AND MANLY

LAT...LON 4350 9303 4326 9303 4326 9321 4350 9335
      4351 9334

$$

000 
WWUS53 KDMX 210539
SVSDMX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1239 AM CDT THU JUN 21 2007

IAC195-210600-
/O.CON.KDMX.SV.W.0133.000000T0000Z-070621T0600Z/
WORTH IA-
1239 AM CDT THU JUN 21 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM CDT
FOR EASTERN WORTH COUNTY...

AT 1234 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL. 
THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR GRAFTON...OR ABOUT 16 MILES NORTHWEST OF
OSAGE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS
OF EASTERN WORTH COUNTY.

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE
HAIL AND DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE
TO A SHELTER...PREFERABLY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

LAT...LON 4350 9303 4326 9303 4326 9321 4350 9335
      4351 9334

$$

COGIL

000 
WWUS53 KDMX 210549
SVSDMX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1249 AM CDT THU JUN 21 2007

IAC195-210559-
/O.CAN.KDMX.SV.W.0133.000000T0000Z-070621T0600Z/
WORTH IA-
1249 AM CDT THU JUN 21 2007

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN WORTH COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

AT 1247 AM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THE
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE EITHER WEAKENED OR
MOVED OUT OF THE AREA...AND NO LONGER POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO
LIFE OR PROPERTY. THEREFORE...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS
BEEN CANCELLED.

LAT...LON 4350 9303 4326 9303 4326 9321 4350 9335
      4351 9334

$$

COGIL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
945 PM CDT WED JUN 20 2007

.DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM (OVERNIGHT)
CONVECTION ACRS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA CONTINUES AHEAD OF WEAK SFC
BOUNDARY AND EDGE OF INSTABILITY AXIS.  DEEPER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
ALSO CONTINUES NEAR THE BOUNDARY SUPPORTING THE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY.  MAY SEE THESE STORMS DROP INTO NORTHERN IOWA...HOWEVER
THE INSTABILITY WHILE STILL DECENT...IS NOT NEARLY AS GOOD AS
FARTHER NORTH AND WEST WITH CIN INCREASING AS WELL.  STILL SOME
THREAT WITH THESE STORMS...BUT MORE ON A ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
BASIS.  FARTHER SOUTH...WL CONTINUE TO SEE SMALL THREAT AS WELL WITH
WEAK SHORT WAVE CROSSING NEBRASKA BUT CONVERGENCE IS WEAKER.

LONG TERM (THURS-WED)
MAIN FOCUS OF THIS FORECAST IS REALLY SHORT TERM THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.  MOST EVERY MODEL HAS BEEN TRENDING TO SLOW THINGS DOWN AND
WHAT BEGAN AS A WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY THING NOW THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY EVENING LIKELY.  BIGGEST CALL WILL BE WHEN TO INITIATE THE
CONVECTION WHICH DEPENDS ON PREVIOUS CONVECTION AND AIRMASS IF ANY
CONVECTION OCCURRED.  BEST SCENARIO ATTM IS DEVELOPMENT TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AS BEST TIMING BRINGS SHORT WAVE DOWN THE FLOW LATE
AFTERNOON THEN TAKES ITS TIME WHILE SURFACE SYSTEM LAGS WITH
BOUNDARY LOCATION UNCERTAIN TO EXACT LOCATION WHICH WILL DETERMINE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL POTENTIAL.  ATTM EXPECT ANY MCS TO ROLL FROM NORTH
CENTRAL TO EAST CENTRAL IOWA WITH PWS BEING 1.9 TO 2.4 TOTALS COULD
EXCEED 3 INCHES NAM MAYBE OVERDONE WITH 6 INCH BULLSEYE.  LOOK AT
SOUNDINGS INITIALLY FAVOR WINDS HOWEVER WITH TIME HEAVY RAINS LOOK TO
BE MAIN FOCUS.  ALL MODELS SEEM TO BE HINTING SEVERAL VORT MAXS
SOUTH CENTRAL AND NORTH WITH SEVERAL PCPN MAXS WHICH COULD BE
POSSIBLE HOWEVER WILL FAVOR MORE NORTHERLY MAX AS DYNAMICAL FIELDS
MUCH MORE IMPRESSIVE AND COULD PRODUCE MORE WEATHER AND RAIN.  THIS
WILL BE A WARM HUMID AIRMASS AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS
WITH AFFECTS LATER ON THE WEEKEND IN THE RIVERS.  ALSO HAVE
INCREASED POPS ON FRIDAY SINCE UPPER LOW SOMEWHAT CLOSES OFF AND
SLOWS DOWN DURING PROCESS FOLLOWING MAV GUIDANCE FOR THE MOST PART
WITH SOME ADJUSTING.  IN LATER PERIODS LOOKING VERY SUMMER LIKE WITH
90S AT LEAST EARLY INTO NEXT WEEK HOWEVER UNCERTAINTY WITH FRONT
SLIPPING SOUTH IN THE LATE PERIODS NOT MUCH MORE THAN LOW POPS.

&&

.AVIATION 21/00Z...

CONVECTION ACRS S MINNESOTA WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND MAY
IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHERN IA.  MOST OF IA WL SEE VFR CIGS THRU 14Z
WITH SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES AFT 08Z IN MIST.  SFC GRADIENT WL KEEP
SOUTHERLY SFC WINDS ACRS IA

&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...COGIL
LONG TERM...FORSTER/73/49/15
AVIATION...COGIL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
936 PM CDT WED JUN 20 2007

IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>039-044>050-057>062-070>075-
081>086-092>097-211100-
EMMET-KOSSUTH-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-PALO ALTO-HANCOCK-CERRO GORDO-
POCAHONTAS-HUMBOLDT-WRIGHT-FRANKLIN-BUTLER-BREMER-SAC-CALHOUN-
WEBSTER-HAMILTON-HARDIN-GRUNDY-BLACK HAWK-CRAWFORD-CARROLL-GREENE-
BOONE-STORY-MARSHALL-TAMA-AUDUBON-GUTHRIE-DALLAS-POLK-JASPER-
POWESHIEK-CASS-ADAIR-MADISON-WARREN-MARION-MAHASKA-ADAMS-UNION-
CLARKE-LUCAS-MONROE-WAPELLO-TAYLOR-RINGGOLD-DECATUR-WAYNE-
APPANOOSE-DAVIS-
936 PM CDT WED JUN 20 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA WILL APPROACH
NORTH CENTRAL IOWA DURING THE OVERNIGHT. THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH THESE STORMS...MAINLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 3 OVERNIGHT. THE PRIMARY THREAT WOULD BE QUARTER
SIZE HAIL AND A SECONDARY THREAT FROM WIND GUSTS APPROACHING 60
MPH. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL IOWA...HOWEVER THE SEVERE THREAT
APPEARS MINIMAL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL CONTINUES THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. GOLF BALL SIZED
HAIL...70 MPH WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IN ADDITIONAL...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE AS NUMEROUS ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST DURING
THE PERIOD. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT OF 2 TO 4
INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED. FLASH FLOODING OR
RIVER FLOODING MAY OCCUR AS A RESULT OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA TONIGHT.
ADDITIONAL ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA.

CC