Severe Thunderstorm Warning 3, NWS Duluth, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
328 PM CDT SUN MAR 25 2007

.UPDATE...
A TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE UPPER SAINT CROIX VALLEY
EASTWARD THROUGH THE INLAND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN COUNTIES...THE
WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM THIS EVENING. THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND IT
INCLUDES ROUTE 61 FROM DULUTH NORTHWARD TO THE CANADIAN BORDER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
RAPIDLY DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE TWIN PORTS AREA AND THE
UPPER SAINT CROIX VALLEY ARE MOVING EAST. SUMMERLIKE TEMPERATURES
AND HUMIDITIES OVER INTERIOR NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN ARE FEEDING
THESE STORMS. THE HUMID AIR IS PASSING OVER A PARTIALLY ICE
COVERED LAKE SUPERIOR...CAUSING VERY DENSE FOG TO FORM. THE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA LATE THIS
EVENING AND THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER AN OFFSHORE FLOW BEGINS
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 222 PM CDT SUN MAR 25 2007/

DISCUSSION...MAIN FOCUS FOR SHORT TERM IS THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER IN SOUTHERN PORTION OF FORECAST AREA. FOCUS FOR LONG TERM
IN PRECIP CHANCES LATE THIS WEEK.

THE SITUATION IS SETTING UP FOR TSTMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTION OF FORECAST AREA. SATELLITE INDICATES BREAKS IN CLOUDS
ACROSS SOUTHERN PORIONS. OBS INDICATE TEMPS IN THE 60S AND 70S
WITH DEWPOINTS IN UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. RADAR INDICATES SOME
PRECIP  BREAKING OUT ACROSS CENTRAL AND NE MN. SPC MESO TOOLS SHOW
TWO AREAS OF GENERATION...ONE NEAR THE BRD AREA AND THE BEST AREA
IN NW WI EAST OF MN LINE. THE NW WI AREA SHOULD SEE THE MOST
ACTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODELS INDICATE CAPES
600-1200 AND LIFTED INDEXES -2 TO -4 ACROSS THAT AREA. THE SURFACE
LOW IN CURRENTLY IN WEST CENTRAL MN MOVING NORTHEAST. THIS SYSTEM
IS MO9VING FAST...SO PRECIP SHOULD BE OUT OF MN BY 00Z AND NW WI
BY 06Z. WITH ABUNDANT MOSITURE STILL AROUND THE AREA...WILL GO
QWITH AREAS OF FOG TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING WITH DENSE FOG
POSSIBLE. DRIER AIR SHOULD DISSAPATE THE FOG BY MID-MORNING MONDAY
AS THE FLOW SWITCHES TO THE NORTH.

SHORT WAVES WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA THIS WEEK...KEEPING WEATHER
UNSETTLED. THERE WILL BE A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA WED NIGHT AND THU BRINGING THE BEST SHOT FOR SHWOERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH COOLER AIR COMING IN FOR THE LATER PART OF THE
WEEK.

WILL WAIT UNTIL NEAR FORECAST ISSUANCE TIME IF DENSE FOG ADVISORY
IS EXTENDED INTO THE EVENING HOURS ALONG THE NORTHSHORE.

&&

POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  42  62  35  55 /  50  10  10  20
INL  39  61  33  54 /  30  10  30  20
BRD  45  68  37  59 /  30  10  10  20
HYR  48  70  36  57 /  70  10  10  30
ASX  43  66  36  52 /  70  10  10  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT MONDAY FOR SOUTHERN
     COOK/LAKESHORE-SOUTHERN LAKE/LAKESHORE.

WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.

EOM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
146 PM CDT SUN MAR 25 2007

LSZ121-140>148-162-MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-
006>009-261230-
BAYFIELD TO OAK POINT WI-GRAND PORTAGE TO GRAND MARAIS MN-
GRAND MARAIS TO TACONITE HARBOR MN-
TACONITE HARBOR TO SILVER BAY HARBOR MN-
SILVER BAY HARBOR TO TWO HARBORS MN-TWO HARBORS TO DULUTH MN-
DULUTH MN TO PORT WING WI-PORT WING TO SAND ISLAND WI-
SAND ISLAND TO BAYFIELD WI-OAK POINT TO SAXON HARBOR WI-
OPEN WATERS OF LAKE SUPERIOR WEST OF A LINE FROM SAXON HARBOR WI
TO GRAND PORTAGE MN-KOOCHICHING-NORTHERN ST. LOUIS-
NORTHERN COOK/NORTHERN LAKE-NORTHERN ITASCA-CENTRAL ST. LOUIS-
SOUTHERN LAKE/LAKESHORE-SOUTHERN COOK/LAKESHORE-NORTHERN CASS-
SOUTHERN ITASCA-SOUTHERN CASS-CROW WING-NORTHERN AITKIN-
SOUTHERN AITKIN-CARLTON/SOUTHERN ST. LOUIS-PINE-DOUGLAS-BAYFIELD-
ASHLAND-IRON-BURNETT-WASHBURN-SAWYER-PRICE-
146 PM CDT SUN MAR 25 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA...
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS ALL OF NORTHWESTERN
WISCONSIN AND MUCH OF NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE...MAINLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM BRAINERD TO CROMWELL MINNESOTA TO
HURLEY WISCONSIN. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM STRONGER STORMS. THE HIGHEST RISK
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN
INCLUDING SOUTHERN PRICE COUNTY.

THERE IS A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE TWIN PORTS AREA
AND THE ARROWHEAD REGION OF MINNESOTA FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
VISIBILITIES WIL BE DOWN TO A QUARTER MILE OR LESS IN THOSE AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

HERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING.

BERDES