Flood Watch 6, NWS Dodge City, KS

Barber County, KS, Clark County, KS, Comanche County, KS, Edwards County, KS, Ellis County, KS, Finney County, KS, Ford County, KS, Grant County, KS, Gray County, KS, Haskell County, KS, Hodgeman County, KS, Kiowa County, KS, Lane County, KS, Meade County, KS, Morton County, KS, Ness County, KS, Pawnee County, KS, Pratt County, KS, Rush County, KS, Seward County, KS, Stafford County, KS, Stanton County, KS, Stevens County, KS, Trego County, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
233 PM CDT TUE MAY 22 2007

.DISCUSSION...

DAYS 1-2...

FORECAST CHALLENGES ABOUND TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...INCLUDING
SEVERE WX TONIGHT...THEN SEVERE WX TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT AND
FLOODING CONCERNS GOING LATE INTO TOMORROW EVENING/NIGHT.

12Z UA ANALYSIS REVEALED DEEP TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. FIRST SHOT OF JET ENERGY HAD CARVED UPPER LOW
CENTER NEAR YELLOWSTONE WITH ANOTHER JET STREAK ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE TROUGH. THIS IMPORTANT JET STREAK WAS NOT CAPTURED WELL AT ALL
IN THE MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE NAM...WHICH HAS CAUSED A SHIFT IN
THE FORECAST THINKING FOR WEDNESDAY. WE NOW EXPECT SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS WEDNESDAY/WED NIGHT.

FOR TONIGHT...COVERAGE OF TSTMS ALONG DRYLINE IS OF MAIN
CONCERN...AND DEGREE OF SVR WX ASSOCIATED WITH ANY STORMS ON THE
DRYLINE. CAPPING IS FAIRLY STRONG...HOWEVER SOME SUBTLE COOLING IS
NOTED IN NEW MEXICO IN THE H5-7 LAYER THAT WOULD SUGGEST A CAP
THAT IS PROBABLY NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO INHIBIT CONVECTION
COMPLETELY ALONG THE DRYLINE. ANY STORMS THAT FORM ON THE DRYLINE
WILL QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE WITH LOWER 60S DEWPOINTS ADVECTING
NORTHWARD THROUGH WESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO SW KS. SHEAR PROFILES AND
HODOGRAPH STRUCTURE EXCELLENT FOR SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH A
TORNADO RISK AS WELL IN THE 00-03Z TIME FRAME IF A STORM REMAINS
STRONG ENOUGH TO GO AGAINST INCREASING SURFACE INHIBITION AFTER
00Z. THINK THAT DRYLINE SUPERCELLS WILL DIMINISH IN THE 03-06Z
TIME FRAME WITH COLD FRONT STORMS FARTHER NORTH ALONG I-70
MOVING/DEVELOPING SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THINK THAT COVERAGE OF COLD
FRONT STORMS WILL BE LIMITED FARTHER SOUTHWEST OVER MUCH OF THE
DDC CWA...AND WILL GO WITH PRIMARILY 30-40 POPS IN THE EASTERN CWA
WITH NEAR 50 POPS IN THE HAYS AREA.

WITH AFOREMENTIONED JET STREAK ROUNDING BASE OF SLOW MOVING
TROUGH...AM EXPECTING VIGOROUS CYCLOGENESIS OVER SOUTHEAST
COLORADO. CURRENT FRONT WILL STALL OUT SOMEWHERE NEAR THE OK/KS
STATE LINE THEN SLOWLY LIFT BACK NORTH WITH INCREASING WARM
FRONTOGENESIS PERHAPS. ONCE AGAIN...INSTABILITY, MOISTURE, AND
WIND SHEAR PROFILES LOOK VERY GOOD FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS
INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. IT IS STILL UNCLEAR WHICH AREA APPEARS MOST
FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC ACTIVITY TOMORROW...HOWEVER MOST OF
SOUTHWEST KANSAS PRIMARILY SOUTH OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER COULD BE
VULNERABLE. FRONT WILL BECOME ALIGNED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS KANSAS NEARLY PARALLEL TO MID UPPER JET. THIS SUGGESTS
TRAINING OF NUMEROUS STORMS DURING THE MID EVENING THROUGH
OVERNIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY WHEN NOCTURNAL LOW
LEVEL JET KICKS IN. FLOOD WATCH CERTAINLY APPEARS TO BE JUSTIFIED
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER THE AREAS MAINLY EAST OF HAYS
TO DODGE CITY AS WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2+ INCHES ARE LIKELY WITH
LOCALIZED 3-4 QUITE POSSIBLE. -UMSCHEID

DAYS 3-7...

THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND
PLAINS BY FRI-SUN TIME PERIOD. MOISTURE WILL BE RETURNING UP THE
HIGH PLAINS. WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE PLAINS, THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. TIMING AND LOCATION OF THESE STORM
CLUSTERS CANNOT BE FORECAST WITH HIGH ACCURACY THIS FAR IN
ADVANCE. TEMPS WILL BE HELD DOWN BY CLOUDS AND OCCASIONAL BOUTS OF
PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION...

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT THE TAF SITES AFTER 23Z.
OTHERWISE, SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS BASED AROUND 4000FT
CAN BE EXPECTED AT HAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  60  75  47  71 /  30  30  70  10
GCK  53  72  45  73 /  30  20  60  10
EHA  48  78  48  73 /  10  30  60  10
LBL  56  80  46  74 /  20  40  60  10
HYS  56  72  48  71 /  60  40  60  10
P28  63  82  51  73 /  30  50  70  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ064-078>080-088-
089.

&&

FN25/24/24

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
210 PM CDT TUE MAY 22 2007

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-231915-
TREGO-ELLIS-SCOTT-LANE-NESS-RUSH-HAMILTON-KEARNY-FINNEY-HODGEMAN-
PAWNEE-STAFFORD-STANTON-GRANT-HASKELL-GRAY-FORD-EDWARDS-KIOWA-
PRATT-MORTON-STEVENS-SEWARD-MEADE-CLARK-COMANCHE-BARBER-
210 PM CDT TUE MAY 22 2007 /110 PM MDT TUE MAY 22 2007/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
KANSAS...SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AFTER 5 PM ALONG AND
EAST OF A LINE FROM DIGHTON TO LIBERAL. THESE STORMS WILL CONTAIN
VERY LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES. THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE IN TREGO...LANE...AND ELLIS COUNTIES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...WITH
THE BEST CHANCE ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM HUGOTON TO GARDEN
CITY TO HAYS. VERY LARGE HAIL AND A FEW STRONG TORNADOES ARE
POSSIBLE. HEAVY RAINS MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING WEDNESDAY
EVENING AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE
FROM HAYS TO DODGE CITY TO MEADE COULD EXPERIENCE FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AFTER 5 PM.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1219 AM CDT WED MAY 23 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1210 AM     HAIL             6 NNW LARNED            38.26N 99.14W
05/23/2007  E1.00 INCH       PAWNEE             KS   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

JRJ

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