Severe Thunderstorm Warning 40, NWS State College, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1129 AM EDT FRI JUN 1 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST IS PROVIDING A HOT AND
HUMID FLOW OF AIR INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. THIS
AIRMASS WILL CHANGE LITTLE TODAY OR SATURDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO ADVANCE INTO THE REGION BY MONDAY...BUT
A DEVELOPING TROPICAL SYSTEM NEAR CUBA MAY BE DIRECTED UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD THIS WEEKEND AND COULD ACT TO SLOW THE
PROGRESSION OF THAT FRONT...AND COULD DIRECTLY INFLUENCE THE
WEATHER OVER THE STATE...ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COMMONWEALTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

A DAY ALMOST IDENTICAL TO YESTERDAY. HAZY WARM AND HUMID WITH
DIURNAL CONVECTION A GOOD BET. A FEW OF THE PULSERS YESTERDAY
CAUSED GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL...SEE NO REASON THAT THE SAME
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST TODAY. RUC ANAL SHOWS 500-1500J OF CAPE AND
STEADILY ERODING CIN. OBSERVED SOUNDING SHOWS A BIT MORE MOISTURE
THAN YESTERDAY SO NOT AS MUCH EFFORT SHOULD BE EXPENDED
CONDITIONING THE ATMOSPHERE. BUFKIT FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW MORE CAPE
AND MOISTER PROFILES AS WELL. THIS MAY DECREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR
MICROBURSTS SINCE WE WILL HAVE LESS DRY AIR TO AID IN EVAPORATIVE
COOLING OF THE DOWNDRAFTS. BUT STILL NOT BEING TERRIBLY WARM
ALOFT...THE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL WILL BE THERE IN SOME OF THE
STRONGER UPDRAFTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
VERY SIMILAR SITUATION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS YESTERDAY.
DIURNAL PULSE TYPE CONVECTION SHOULD FIRE UP FIRST ALONG THE
RIDGETOPS DURING THE EARLY AFTN...TENDING TO DRIFT EASTWARD IN
THE WEAK MEAN 0-6KM FLOW. CAPES IN THE 1500-2500J RANGE AND VERY
LITTLE SHEAR SUGGEST SLOW-MOVING PULSERS WITH A RISK OF ISOLATED
SVR.

MAX TEMPS SHOULD NOT GET TO THE RECORDS WE SET YESTERDAY...AS THEY
WILL PROBABLY BE CUT DOWN JUST A HAIR BY THE MID CLOUD DEBRIS
OVERHEAD NOW. BUT 8H TEMPS STILL VERY WARM /+16C/...SO WE SHOULD
STILL GET SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...AND MAY TOUCH 90 IN A
COUPLE OF SPOTS. THE DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD AGAIN WANE AFTER
SUNSET THIS EVENING...BUT HIGH CAPES AND PWATS COULD LET THEM LAST
THROUGH MIDNIGHT/1 AM AGAIN.

BROKEN RECORD SKIPS ALONG ON SATURDAY...WITH SIMILAR TEMPS. WE MAY
A LITTLE LESS DIURNAL CONVECTION DUE TO THE SLIGHT NVA WE WILL BE
UNDER ALOFT DURING PEAK HEATING DUE TO A SLIGHT INCREASE IN NWRLY
FLOW AT UPPER LEVELS OFF TO OUR NE. THIS WOULD PUT US IN THE
UNFAVORABLE RIGHT EXIT REGION...BUT A WEAK CAP AND STILL-HIGH
MOISTURE CAN STILL PROVIDE FIREWORKS...EVEN IF WE NEED A SLIGHTLY
BIGGER SPARK/LIFT TO START THEM. HAVE LOWERED POPS ONLY SLIGHTLY
TO JUST BELOW 30 PCT AND CONFINED THEM TO THE AFTN HRS ON SAT DUE
TO THESE CONSIDERATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CARRIED 20 POPS AFT 8 PM ON SAT NIGHT...WITH LEFTOVER DIURNAL
STUFF FROM SAT AFTN/EVENING IN MIND.

HOWEVER...MAIN WORRY FOR THE LATE WEEKEND AND MON/TUES IS HOW THE
+UPPER LOW MOVING EAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS...
+ENERGY FROM EASTERN CANADA...AND
+THE POSSIBLE TROPICAL SYSTEM COMING OUT OF THE GULF
ALL INTERACT.

FOR NOW...WEIGHTED FORECAST TO WHAT WE HAD...AND TO THE MILD AND
WET SIDE. NAM MAY NOT DO THE BEST WITH SE SYSTEM - IT SEEMS WELL
TO THE WEST OF ALL OTHER SOLUTIONS...WHILE A MODEL LIKE THE GFS
MAY DO A LITTLE BETTER. HOWEVER...A WAYS OUT...AND MODELS HAVE
BEEN DIFFERENT EACH DAY. FOR NOW...TAPERED POPS TO LESS THAN 15 BY
MID WEEK. GFS MAY BE A SHADE TOO FAST WITH SYSTEM. HARD TO TRUST
ANYTHING...WITH 3 SYSTEMS TRYING TO INTERACT/PHASE. AIRMASS IN
EASTERN CANADA WAS ABNORMALLY COLD THE OTHER MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE ONLY AIRFIELD THAT RECEIVED A NON TRIVIAL AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION WITH YESTERDAYS CONVECTION WAS KUNV. AS
SUCH...CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES HAVE DROPPED INTO THE LIFR
CATEGORY. EXPECT THAT DISSIPATE BY 14Z. OTHER AIRFIELDS REMAIN IN
IFR OR MVFR CATEGORY DUE TO BR AND THIS WILL IMPROVE THROUGH THE
MORNING AS WELL.

CONDITIONS THROUGH 00Z/SAT WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AS
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. COVERAGE WILL
BE LESS THAN 50 PERCENT AND THE LIKELIHOOD THAT CONVECTION WILL
OCCUR OVER THE FIVE MILE RING OF ANY PARTICULAR AIRFIELD IS
DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE. SO FAR JUST PLACED CB IN THE TAF BUT ANY
AIRFIELD COULD SEE CONVECTION AFTER 18Z AND DIMINISHING AFTER 01Z.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSHOWERS WILL STAY IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MID
WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REPLACES OUR CURRENT RIDGE. THIS
WILL KEEP THE AREA UNSETTLED BUT NOT A WASHOUT.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...LACORTE
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...DANGELO/MARTIN
AVIATION...TYBURSKI

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
324 AM EDT FRI JUN 1 2007

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066-020730-
WARREN-MCKEAN-POTTER-ELK-CAMERON-NORTHERN CLINTON-CLEARFIELD-
NORTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CENTRE-CAMBRIA-BLAIR-HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-
JUNIATA-SOMERSET-BEDFORD-FULTON-FRANKLIN-TIOGA-NORTHERN LYCOMING-
SULLIVAN-SOUTHERN CLINTON-SOUTHERN LYCOMING-UNION-SNYDER-MONTOUR-
NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-PERRY-DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-CUMBERLAND-
ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER-
324 AM EDT FRI JUN 1 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

DANGELO

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
111 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2007

PAZ037-011815-
TIOGA-
111 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2007

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL TIOGA COUNTY...

AT 101 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES NORTHWEST OF WELLSBORO.  THIS STORM IS
NEARLY STATIONARY.

THE THUNDERSTORM WILL STAY OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF CENTRAL TIOGA
COUNTY.

VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THIS STORM...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO
POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS.

FORECASTER: LA CORTE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
139 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2007

PAZ024-025-011830-
BLAIR-CAMBRIA-
139 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2007

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTH CENTRAL CAMBRIA AND
SOUTHWESTERN BLAIR COUNTIES...

AT 136 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9 MILES SOUTH OF PORTAGE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10
MPH.

THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR SPRING HILL AROUND 155 PM...SKI GAP
AND CLAYSBURG AROUND 200 PM.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTERSTATES...
I-99 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 16 AND 28.

VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THIS STORM...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO
POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS.

FORECASTER: LA CORTE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
217 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2007

PAZ034-011845-
BEDFORD-
217 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2007

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN BEDFORD COUNTY...

AT 213 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF WINDBER...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 5 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.
VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THIS STORM...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO
POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS.
EXPECT INTENSE LIGHTNING FROM THIS STORM. DO NOT SEEK SHELTER UNDER
TREES WHEN LIGHTNING THREATENS...MOVE INDOORS WHEN A THUNDERSTORM
APPROACHES.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR BLUE KNOB STATE PARK AROUND 245 PM.

FORECASTER: STEINBUGL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
305 PM EDT FRI JUN 01 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 PM     HAIL             1 S OSCEOLA MILLS       40.84N 78.27W
06/01/2007  M1.00 INCH       CENTRE             PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            A FEW LARGER STONES...PARTIALLY COVERING THE GROUND IN
            SPOTS

&&

STEINBUGL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
307 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2007

PAZ005-006-012000-
MCKEAN-POTTER-
307 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2007

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CENTRAL POTTER AND SOUTHERN
MCKEAN COUNTIES...

AT 304 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 22 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF OLEAN TO 22 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BRADFORD TO 15 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
BRADFORD TO 7 MILES EAST OF KANE...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THESE STORMS...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO
POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR ROULETTE AROUND 325 PM...COUDERSPORT AROUND
340 PM...NORWICH AROUND 355 PM AND DENTON HILL STATE PARK AROUND 400
PM.

FORECASTER: LA CORTE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
337 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2007

PAZ010-012000-
ELK-
337 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2007

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL ELK COUNTY...

AT 333 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES NORTHEAST OF JOHNSONBURG...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. VERY
HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THIS STORM...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO POND
ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR EAST BRANCH DAM AROUND 355 PM AND ST. MARYS
AROUND 400 PM.

FORECASTER: LA CORTE