Flash Flood Warning 10, NWS State College, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
518 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL SLIDE OUT TO SEA AS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES. HAZY...WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A SECONDARY SYSTEM WITH ORIGINS OVER
THE TROPICS WILL SLIDE UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD TOWARD EARLY NEXT
WEEK...CARVING OUT A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S. A COOL DOWN IS IN STORE FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR
EARLY JUNE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING/...
A DAY ALMOST IDENTICAL TO YESTERDAY. HAZY WARM AND HUMID WITH
DIURNAL CONVECTION ONGOING AT THIS TIME. THESE SLOW MOVING PULSE-
TYPE STORMS HAVE PRODUCED QUARTER-SIZED HAIL AND TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL. RUC ANAL GENERALLY SHOWS AROUND 1000J OF SB CAPE WITH A
POCKET OF OVER 2000J SITUATED OVER THE LOWER SUSQ VLY.
TALL...SKINNY CAPES OBSERVED ON SOUNDINGS FAVOR THE HEAVY
RAIN...AND HAVE MENTIONED IN THE ZONE TEXT AND GRIDS. STRONGER
UPDRAFTS ASSOC WITH SCT VIGOROUS CONVECTION HAVE ALSO BEEN
OBSERVED...WITH HIGH REFLECTIVITY CORES REACHING OVER 25-30KFT IN
SOME INSTANCES. 60+ DBZ LRC ALSO CONDUCIVE FOR TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL...WITH RAIN RATES ON THE ORDER OF 1-2 INCHES AN HOUR.

LOCALIZED FLOODING AS WELL ISOLATED HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE THREAT
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. AS BLYR COOLS AND
STABILIZES...DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN.
HOWEVER...SOME RESIDUAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY ALLOW FOR SCT/CHC
STORMS HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /9 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
CONVECTION SHOULD EVENTUALLY DIE OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPING...ESPECIALLY WHERE IT RAINED. SATURDAY SHOULD START
SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING...BCMG HAZY WARM AND HUMID BY THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. GUIDANCE BLEND YIELDS UPR 70S/LOW 80S ACROSS THE
NRN AND WRN MTNS WITH MID/UPR 80S OVER THE SOUTH
CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST.

WE MAY SEE A LITTLE LESS DIURNAL CONVECTION DUE TO THE SLIGHT NVA
WE WILL BE UNDER ALOFT DURING PEAK HEATING DUE TO A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN NWRLY FLOW AT UPPER LEVELS OFF TO OUR NE. THIS WOULD
PUT US IN THE UNFAVORABLE RIGHT EXIT REGION...BUT A WEAK CAP AND
STILL-HIGH MOISTURE CAN STILL PROVIDE FIREWORKS...EVEN IF WE NEED A
SLIGHTLY BIGGER SPARK/LIFT TO START THEM. 1000J OF ML CAPE AND
ERODING CINH SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO SCT AFTN CONVECTION AND THUS HAVE
RAISED POPS SLIGHTLY INTO THE 30/40 PCT CAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE LONGER TERM...RESULTING IN A MANUAL BLEND
OF PREVIOUS FCAST WITH THE LATEST MODEL DATA.

UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BE ERODING AS A PAIR OF CYCLONES...ONE
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE UPPER MS VLY AND THE OTHER CREEPING NWD
ALONG THE SERN COAST...WILL AID IN CARVING OUT A MEAN ERN CONUS
MID/UPR LVL TROF. PHASING ISSUES WILL SURLY NEED TO BE
RESOLVED...BUT ENSEMBLE DATA SHOWS ANOMALOUS 500 HPA HEIGHTS AND
BLW NORMAL MSLP OVER THE REGION - WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY TRANSLATE
INTO COOLER AND UNSETTLED CONDS. HAVE FAVORED THE COOLER/WETTER
GUID OVERALL FROM LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO MID WEEK...WHICH AGREES
WITH THE TREND NOTED IN THE MREF 1000-850MB TEMPERATURE PLUMES.
EMBEDDED S/W TROFS AND ASSOC COLD FRONTS WILL TRANSLATE THROUGH
THE REGION BRINGING ALMOST DAILY CHC FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH MID WEEK. MREF SHOWS HEIGHTS RETURNING BACK TO NORMAL BY
LATE WEEK /THUR/ WITH TEMPS FOLLOWING SUITE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE ONLY AIRFIELD THAT RECEIVED A NON TRIVIAL AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION WITH YESTERDAYS CONVECTION WAS KUNV. AS
SUCH...CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES HAVE DROPPED INTO THE LIFR
CATEGORY. EXPECT THAT DISSIPATE BY 14Z. OTHER AIRFIELDS REMAIN IN
IFR OR MVFR CATEGORY DUE TO BR AND THIS WILL IMPROVE THROUGH THE
MORNING AS WELL.

CONDITIONS THROUGH 00Z/SAT WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AS
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. COVERAGE WILL
BE LESS THAN 50 PERCENT AND THE LIKELIHOOD THAT CONVECTION WILL
OCCUR OVER THE FIVE MILE RING OF ANY PARTICULAR AIRFIELD IS
DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE. SO FAR JUST PLACED CB IN THE TAF BUT ANY
AIRFIELD COULD SEE CONVECTION AFTER 18Z AND DIMINISHING AFTER 01Z.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSHOWERS WILL STAY IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MID
WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REPLACES OUR CURRENT RIDGE. THIS
WILL KEEP THE AREA UNSETTLED BUT NOT A WASHOUT.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...LACORTE/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LACORTE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
324 AM EDT FRI JUN 1 2007

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066-020730-
WARREN-MCKEAN-POTTER-ELK-CAMERON-NORTHERN CLINTON-CLEARFIELD-
NORTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CENTRE-CAMBRIA-BLAIR-HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-
JUNIATA-SOMERSET-BEDFORD-FULTON-FRANKLIN-TIOGA-NORTHERN LYCOMING-
SULLIVAN-SOUTHERN CLINTON-SOUTHERN LYCOMING-UNION-SNYDER-MONTOUR-
NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-PERRY-DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-CUMBERLAND-
ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER-
324 AM EDT FRI JUN 1 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

DANGELO

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
111 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2007

PAZ037-011815-
TIOGA-
111 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2007

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL TIOGA COUNTY...

AT 101 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES NORTHWEST OF WELLSBORO.  THIS STORM IS
NEARLY STATIONARY.

THE THUNDERSTORM WILL STAY OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF CENTRAL TIOGA
COUNTY.

VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THIS STORM...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO
POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS.

FORECASTER: LA CORTE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
139 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2007

PAZ024-025-011830-
BLAIR-CAMBRIA-
139 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2007

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTH CENTRAL CAMBRIA AND
SOUTHWESTERN BLAIR COUNTIES...

AT 136 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9 MILES SOUTH OF PORTAGE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10
MPH.

THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR SPRING HILL AROUND 155 PM...SKI GAP
AND CLAYSBURG AROUND 200 PM.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTERSTATES...
I-99 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 16 AND 28.

VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THIS STORM...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO
POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS.

FORECASTER: LA CORTE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
217 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2007

PAZ034-011845-
BEDFORD-
217 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2007

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN BEDFORD COUNTY...

AT 213 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF WINDBER...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 5 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.
VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THIS STORM...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO
POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS.
EXPECT INTENSE LIGHTNING FROM THIS STORM. DO NOT SEEK SHELTER UNDER
TREES WHEN LIGHTNING THREATENS...MOVE INDOORS WHEN A THUNDERSTORM
APPROACHES.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR BLUE KNOB STATE PARK AROUND 245 PM.

FORECASTER: STEINBUGL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
305 PM EDT FRI JUN 01 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 PM     HAIL             1 S OSCEOLA MILLS       40.84N 78.27W
06/01/2007  M1.00 INCH       CENTRE             PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            A FEW LARGER STONES...PARTIALLY COVERING THE GROUND IN
            SPOTS

&&

STEINBUGL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
307 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2007

PAZ005-006-012000-
MCKEAN-POTTER-
307 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2007

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CENTRAL POTTER AND SOUTHERN
MCKEAN COUNTIES...

AT 304 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 22 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF OLEAN TO 22 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BRADFORD TO 15 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
BRADFORD TO 7 MILES EAST OF KANE...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THESE STORMS...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO
POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR ROULETTE AROUND 325 PM...COUDERSPORT AROUND
340 PM...NORWICH AROUND 355 PM AND DENTON HILL STATE PARK AROUND 400
PM.

FORECASTER: LA CORTE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
337 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2007

PAZ010-012000-
ELK-
337 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2007

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL ELK COUNTY...

AT 333 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES NORTHEAST OF JOHNSONBURG...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. VERY
HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THIS STORM...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO POND
ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR EAST BRANCH DAM AROUND 355 PM AND ST. MARYS
AROUND 400 PM.

FORECASTER: LA CORTE