Severe Thunderstorm Warning 233, NWS State College, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1013 AM EDT THU AUG 9 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA THORUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE MID- ATLANTIC REGION. SLIGHTLY
DRYER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE LOW LATER FRIDAY IN SATURDAY AS
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN PA THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON AS A SQUALL LINE MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. LINE
CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS SHOULD HOLD TOGETHER AS IT
MOVES SOUTHEAST ALONG THE NORTHEAST EDGE OF AN INSTABILITY
GRADIENT THROUGH THE LOWER SUQUEHANNA VALLEY. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY CURRENTLY IN THE LOWER 80S WITH DEW PTS
IN THE HIGH 60S WILL PROVIDE SOME INSTABILITY DESPITE RATHER WARM
AIR ALOFT WITH WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
THE MAIN THREAT WITH THIS LINE AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST. HEAVY RAINS
WILL ALSO OCCUR... WHICH COULD BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME FLOODING IN
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

MANY MASS AND KINEMATIC PARAMETERS THAT WERE IN PLACE PRIOR AND
DURING THE HEAVY RAIN OF LATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE FOUND
ACROSS PENN THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. EXCEPTION WILL BE SLIGHTLY
WEAKER 925-850 HPA THETA-E CONVERGENCE THANKS TO A LLVL SWRLY JET
THAT IS COMPARATIVELY ABOUT 10 KTS WEAKER THAN THE ONE THAT
QUICKLY BLOSSOMED THE HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING SHRA/TSRA LATE TUES.

NAM/S 925-850 HPA THETA-E CONVERGENCE APPEARS TO BE CURRENTLY
PEGGING THE EXPANDING AREA OF SHRA/TSRA ACROSS NRN OHIO/WRN LAKE
ERIE FAIRLY WELL...AND DISCUSSION ABOUT A SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT TO
THE LOCATION OF HEAVIEST QPF PER HPC MAY NEED TO BE TEMPERED A BIT
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS OUR REGION.

FOCUSING ON THE PRIMARY LLVL FORCING IN THE FORM OF MODERATELY
STRONG ISENT LIFT WITHIN THE 300-310K THETA CHANNEL...VIA A MEAN
25 WSW WIND RIDING OVER THE QUASI STATIONARY FRONT...THE MAIN
STRIP OF QPF OF AROUND 0.50 OF AN INCH WILL BE ALONG AND TO THE
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

BEST SFC BASED INSTABILITY WITH MU CAPES RUNNING BETWEEN 2000-2500
J/KG WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SVR TSRA ACROSS THE SW HALF OF THE CWA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SIMILAR TO 30 HOURS AGO...THE QUASI
STNRY FRONT WILL ACT AS A SOURCE OF ENHANCED LLVL VORTICITY AND
COMBINE WITH THE DEEP LAYER LIFT OF A SHORT WAVE APPROACHING
TONIGHT TO PRODUCE ROTATING UPDRAFTS NEAR AND JUST TO THE EAST OF
THE BOUNDARY. SUPERCELL STRUCTURE WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO
IS POSSIBLE LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING ACROSS THE WRN AND CENTRAL
MTNS OF PENN.

TEMPS WILL CLIMB TO NEAR 90 THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SCENT/SERN
ZONES WITH A HEAT INDEX BETWEEN 95 AND 100. MORE CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED TSRA OVER THE NORTH WILL TRIM MAXS BY ABOUT 10-12F
COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY...WITH TEMPS REACHING THE U70S TO MID 80S
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NRN MTNS.

CONSIDERING THE WIDESPREAD HIGH PWATS OF OVER 2 INCHES LATE TODAY
AND TONIGHT....LOCALIZED VERY HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE. WILL HOLD OFF ON A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR NOW...BUT OUR
NW ZONES THAT RECEIVED 2-5 INCHES OF RAIN FROM THE LAST EVENT WILL
BE THE MOST PRONE TO THE LOCALIZED FLOODING THREAT THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON FRIDAY...PUSHING OUT THE MUGGY AIRMASS AND
LEADING TO DECREASING COVERAGE OF SHRA AND TSRA. CENTRAL AND NW
COUNTIES OF OUR CWA WILL LIKELY SEE AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING IN
THE AFTERNOON...WITH SEVERAL HOURS OF SCT CLOUDS POSSIBLE NW OF A
KJST TO KUNV AND KELM LINE.

TEMPS WILL DIP BACK TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH
DEWPOINTS GRADUALLY FALLING OFF.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE WEEKEND WILL BE LESS HUMID AND DRY AS HIGH PRESS AT THE SFC AN
ALOFT BUILDS EAST OVER THE REGION. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR...TO A
FEW DEG ABOVE NORMAL.

HPC AND MODELS MOVE NEXT FRONT IN ON MONDAY INSTEAD OF TUE NOW.
ADDED S CHC N PA SUNDAY NIGHT...PUSHED THIS INTO C PA ON MONDAY.
LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO ADD SHOWERS AND STORMS TO MONDAY EVENING
ACROSS S PA. WENT WITH DRY FCST ON TUE AND WED.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LINE OF STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS JST... UNV... AOO TAF SITES
THROUGH 16Z... AND THRU MDT BY 18Z. STRONG WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY
THESE STORMS.

THE SOUPY AIRMASS WILL HELP GENERATE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE HELP OF A WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.

THE MVFR/IFR WILL HANG AROUND INTO THURS NIGHT AS CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO FOCUS ALONG THE FRONT AND MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY.

FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WILL SEE IMPROVEMENT AS DRIER AIR PUSHES
INTO THE REGION FROM CANADA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...LACORTE
LONG TERM...LACORTE
AVIATION...99

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
522 AM EDT THU AUG 9 2007

PAZ010-017>019-024>028-033>036-056-057-059-063>066-100930-
ELK-CLEARFIELD-NORTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CENTRE-CAMBRIA-BLAIR-
HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-JUNIATA-SOMERSET-BEDFORD-FULTON-FRANKLIN-PERRY-
DAUPHIN-LEBANON-CUMBERLAND-ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER-
522 AM EDT THU AUG 9 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE LOCALIZED
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...HOWEVER A FEW ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY ALSO
OCCUR.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN FROM TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE MORNING BEFORE A COLD FRONT SWEEPS EAST ACROSS THE
REGION AND ENDS THE PRECIPITATION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.

PAZ004>006-011-012-037-041-042-045-046-049>053-058-100930-
WARREN-MCKEAN-POTTER-CAMERON-NORTHERN CLINTON-TIOGA-
NORTHERN LYCOMING-SULLIVAN-SOUTHERN CLINTON-SOUTHERN LYCOMING-UNION-
SNYDER-MONTOUR-NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-SCHUYLKILL-
522 AM EDT THU AUG 9 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

LOCALIZED VERY HEAVY RAIN OF OVER 2 INCHES IN JUST A FEW HOURS IS
POSSIBLE WHERE SEVERAL THUNDERSTORMS MOVE ACROSS THE SAME AREA.
SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...BUT THE PROBABILITY FOR DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN FROM TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE MORNING BEFORE A COLD FRONT SWEEPS EAST ACROSS THE
REGION AND ENDS THE PRECIPITATION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.

LAMBERT