Tornado Warning 20, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
934 AM CDT WED JUL 25 2007

.UPDATE...SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM
WL CONTINUE THIS AFTN...AND COMBINE WITH COPIOUS MSTR AND
INCREASING INSTABILITY TO CONTRIBUTE TO SCT/NUMEROUS CONVECTION
THIS AFTN. WL RETAIN THE FFA OWING TO HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SFC TROUGH OVR THE CWFA WHICH COULD RESULT IN
TRAINING ECHOES/WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING ACRS SEVERAL COUNTIES.
SEA HGTS TO REMAIN WELL BELOW THE SCEC THRESHOLD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    87  74  87  75  88  /  70  60  80  50  60
VICTORIA          87  73  85  74  86  /  60  40  80  60  70
LAREDO            84  75  91  75  91  /  90  80  50  60  60
ALICE             85  73  88  74  89  /  80  70  70  40  60
ROCKPORT          87  77  86  80  87  /  60  50  80  60  60
COTULLA           83  72  88  74  88  /  90  80  50  60  60
KINGSVILLE        88  74  88  74  89  /  70  70  80  40  60
NAVY CORPUS       87  78  85  80  88  /  60  50  80  50  60

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     DUVAL...JIM WELLS...LA SALLE...LIVE OAK...MCMULLEN...WEBB.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...GOLIAD...
     KLEBERG...NUECES...REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO...VICTORIA.

GM...NONE.

&&

WC/87...SHORT TERM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
545 AM CDT WED JUL 25 2007

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-TXZ229>234-239>247-261045-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT OCONNOR-
COASTAL WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 TO 60 NM-
LA SALLE-MCMULLEN-LIVE OAK-BEE-GOLIAD-VICTORIA-WEBB-DUVAL-
JIM WELLS-KLEBERG-NUECES-SAN PATRICIO-ARANSAS-REFUGIO-CALHOUN-
545 AM CDT WED JUL 25 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS AND THE MIDDLE
TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTHWEST
OF THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL INTERACT WITH
ABUNDANT MOISTURE OVER SOUTH TEXAS TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER ALL OF
SOUTH TEXAS TODAY AND REMAIN OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS TONIGHT.
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
COASTAL PLAINS AND THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND
BRUSH COUNTRY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH
ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES POSSIBLE. DUE TO SATURATED SOIL
CONDITIONS...ANY HEAVY RAIN WILL QUICKLY BECOME RUNOFF AND LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MEANDER ACROSS
CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE FINALLY DRIFTING WEST INTO
MEXICO OVER THE WEEKEND.  THE LOW WILL INTERACT WITH A WEAK TROPICAL
WAVE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED...AND AT TIMES NUMEROUS...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS WITH A THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.  THE GREATEST THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SCATTERED 1 TO 2 INCH AND LOCALIZED 3
TO 6 INCH RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.  THESE RAINFALL TOTALS WILL ADD UP THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK LEADING TO AN INCREASING THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING.  SEVERAL
RIVERS IN THE AREA REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE FLOOD STAGE DUE TO RECORD
RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE MONTH OF JULY AND ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL ONLY EXACERBATE THE RIVER FLOOD SITUATION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

TMT/MJG