Flash Flood Warning 117, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
820 PM CDT TUE JUL 24 2007

.UPDATE...CRP RADAR CONTINUES TO INDICATE MOST EFFICIENT RAIN
PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING CONFINED TO THE WEST OF HIGHWAY
281. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS SATELLITE
DEPICTS SHORT WAVE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THAT IS POISED TO MOVE
OVER RIO GRANDE AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS. THIS SHORT WAVE IN CONCERT
WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...BEST INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA WILL STILL KEEP
POTENTIAL OF FLASH FLOODING OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. SATELLITE
AND RADAR TRENDS ALREADY STARTING TO SHOW STORMS BEGINNING TO FILL
IN ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS NEAR THE RIO GRANDE. HENCE...WILL
RETAIN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR DUVAL...LASALLE...MCMULLEN AND
WEBB COUNTIES THROUGH 7 AM.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT-NUM RWS/TSTMS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 03Z FM COT-ALI-LRD
THEN GRADUALLY DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING. IFR CONDS AND GUSTY
WINDS UP TO 35 KTS POSSB IN AND NEAR THESE TSTMS. VFR CONDS WILL
THEN GNRLY PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. SCT-NUM RWS/TSRA WILL RE-DVLP ACROSS
THE COASTAL BEND FROM CRP-VCT-ALI WED MORNING AND SPREAD WEST DURG
THE AFTN HOURS. ONCE AGAIN...MVFR/IFR CONDS WILL OCCUR IN THESE
TROPICAL DOWNPOURS AS WELL AS WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 KTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 216 PM CDT TUE JUL 24 2007/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...UPPER LOW CONTINUES
TO TAKE SHAPE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ATTM AND WILL REMAIN FIXED
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. SERIES OF S/WS WILL PIVOT
AROUND THE TROUGH BRINGING SCT-NUM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION. THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE OVER THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS OVERNIGHT WHERE NEXT S/W CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE HILL
COUNTRY IS TAKING AIM. NAM/GFS MODELS INDICATE GOOD UPR DIFLUENCE
OUT WEST TONIGHT AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE. MEAN WIND VECTORS
INDICATE VERY SLOW STORM MOTIONS TONIGHT THUS WILL POST A FFA FOR
THE WEST TONIGHT. MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL INCREASE OVER THE
COASTAL BEND LATE TONIGHT AND DURING THE DAY WED. DAYTIME HEATING
COMBINED WITH MOD UPR DIFLUENCE...STATIONARY MID LVL LOW AND A
SFC BOUNDARY WILL ALL COMBINE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ON WED. MAX TEMPS WERE LOWERED FOR WED TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS AND RAIN. MAY VERY WELL NEED
TO ISSUE A FFA FOR THE COASTAL BEND ON WED...BUT WILL LET THE MID
SHIFT GET ONE FINAL LOOK.

MARINE...THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 3-5 FEET OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS DUE TO
INCREASING PGF AND THE APCH OF THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE. SCT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS WED NGT AND THU AS THE
TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS EXCEPT IN THUNDERSTORMS WHERE IFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE. WIDELY SCT SH/TSRA ARE EXPECTED FROM ALI-CRP-VCT AND
SCT-NUMEROUS SH/TSRA ARE EXPECTED FROM LRD-COT. MVFR CEILINGS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION FROM 06Z-14Z. SCT-NUMEROUS SH/TSRA WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND FROM CRP-VCT WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN HEAVY RAIN.

LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...THE MOST RECENT GFS
DETERMINISTIC/NAM SOLNS PROG THE UPPER LOW TO PROVIDE SYNOPTIC
SCALCE ASCENT OVER THE REGION AT LEAST THROUGH SUN...BEFORE
RETROGRADING SIGNIFICANTLY WEST OF THE AREA. THE GFS MAINTAINS
COPIOUS MSTR. GFS SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LIMITED STORM MOTION DRG THE
PERIOD. FURTHER...THE GFS PROGS THE TROPICAL WAVE...EXTENDING FROM
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO SOUTH TX...TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY. THE
COMBINATION OF UPPER/SFC FORCING...MSTR/INSTABILITY...EXPECT
CONVECTIVE ACITIVITY...ESP THROUGH SUN. COPIOUS MSTR/LIMITED
VERTICAL SHEAR/THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE/QUASI-STATIONARY BNDRY MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO A HEAVY RAINFALL/FLASH FLOOD EVENT THU-SAT. DRG THE
MON-TUE PERIOD...BOTH THE GFS AND NOGAPS DEVELOP AN UPPER RIDGE OVR
THE REGION RESULTING IN/SUGGESTIVE OF INCREASING SUBSIDENCE. THE GFS
LOWERS PW VALUES DRG MON-TUE. CONCUR WITH THE WAVEWATCH SOLN THAT
SEA HGTS WL REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    75  87  75  87  76  /  40  70  40  60  40
VICTORIA          72  87  73  86  74  /  40  70  40  70  50
LAREDO            76  92  77  94  77  /  70  50  40  50  30
ALICE             74  88  73  89  75  /  70  70  40  60  30
ROCKPORT          78  86  78  86  79  /  40  70  40  70  50
COTULLA           72  90  73  91  74  /  70  50  40  50  30
KINGSVILLE        74  88  74  88  76  /  40  70  40  60  40
NAVY CORPUS       78  86  78  85  79  /  40  60  40  70  40

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: DUVAL...LA SALLE...MCMULLEN...WEBB.

GM...NONE.

&&

SC/70...SHORT TERM
JR/19...AVIATION

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
602 AM CDT TUE JUL 24 2007

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-TXZ229>234-239>247-250000-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT OCONNOR-
COASTAL WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 TO 60 NM-
LA SALLE-MCMULLEN-LIVE OAK-BEE-GOLIAD-VICTORIA-WEBB-DUVAL-
JIM WELLS-KLEBERG-NUECES-SAN PATRICIO-ARANSAS-REFUGIO-CALHOUN-
602 AM CDT TUE JUL 24 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS AND THE MIDDLE
TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR MAINLY OVER THE
RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND BRUSH COUNTRY TODAY AND TONIGHT AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LEADING TO
FLASH FLOODING. RAIN AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MEANDER ACROSS
CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE FINALLY DRIFTING WEST INTO
MEXICO OVER THE WEEKEND.  THE LOW WILL INTERACT WITH A WEAK TROPICAL
WAVE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED...AND AT TIMES NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS.  THIS UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS SIMILAR
TO SEVERAL SYSTEMS THAT HAVE ALREADY CAUSED HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FLOODING ACROSS MUCH OF TEXAS IN THE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS AND
ADDITIONAL LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM.  THE
BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...BUT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH SCATTERED 1 TO 2 INCH AND
LOCALIZED 3 TO 5 INCH RAINFALL TOTALS EACH DAY MAINLY BETWEEN
WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY.  THESE RAINFALL TOTALS WILL ADD UP THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK LEADING TO AN INCREASING THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING.
SEVERAL RIVERS IN THE AREA REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE FLOOD STAGE DUE TO
RECORD RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE MONTH OF JULY AND ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL ONLY EXACERBATE THE RIVER FLOOD SITUATION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

TMT/MJG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
439 PM CDT TUE JUL 24 2007

TXZ244-246-242215-
REFUGIO-SAN PATRICIO-
439 PM CDT TUE JUL 24 2007

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS AFFECTING REFUGIO AND SAN PATRICIO
COUNTIES...

AT 433 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES NORTHEAST OF SINTON...MOVING NORTHWEST AT
5 MPH.

PEOPLE IN NORTHERN SAN PATRICIO AND SOUTHWESTERN REFUGIO COUNTIES...
SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE
WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE
WEATHER THREATEN.

WINDS AROUND 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM. IN
ADDITION...OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL
OF AROUND 1 INCH WILL OCCUR WITH THIS STORM.

JR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
442 PM CDT TUE JUL 24 2007

TXZ234-242230-
VICTORIA-
442 PM CDT TUE JUL 24 2007

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS AFFECTING VICTORIA COUNTY...

AT 438 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR INEZ...OR 10 MILES WEST OF EDNA. THIS STORM
WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

PEOPLE IN NORTHEASTERN VICTORIA COUNTY...SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER
SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO
TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

SMALL HAIL...AND WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM. IN
ADDITION...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES AND ISOLATED AMOUNTS
OF 3 INCHES WILL OCCUR WITH THIS STORM. OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL ALSO OCCUR WITH THIS STORM.

JR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
641 PM CDT TUE JUL 24 2007

TXZ241-250045-
JIM WELLS-
641 PM CDT TUE JUL 24 2007

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS AFFECTING JIM WELLS COUNTY...

AT 639 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR ALICE...MOVING SOUTH AT 10 MPH.

PEOPLE IN CENTRAL JIM WELLS COUNTY...INCLUDING THE CITIES OF ALICE
AND BEN BOLT...SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN
FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION
SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM. IN ADDITION...VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL AND OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL
OCCUR WITH THIS STORM.

JR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
658 PM CDT TUE JUL 24 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0656 PM     FLASH FLOOD      5 E ALICE               27.76N 97.98W
07/24/2007                   JIM WELLS          TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HIGHWAY 44 FLOODED IN SPOTS BETWEEN ALICE AND AGUA DULCE.

&&

JR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
712 PM CDT TUE JUL 24 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0709 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 ENE ALICE             27.77N 98.04W
07/24/2007                   JIM WELLS          TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            BOTH EAST AND WESTBOUND LANES OF HIGHWAY 44 FLOODED AT
            HIGHWAY 359.

&&

JR