River Flood Warning 25, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1033 AM CDT WED JUL 4 2007

.UPDATE...WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE
FROM TILDEN TO CORPUS CHRISTI. WITH THE RAIN RECEIVED SO FAR
TODAY...CORPUS CHRISTI IS UP TO 12.14 INCHES FOR THE MONTH OF
JULY. TO PROVIDE SOME PERSPECTIVE...THIS BREAKS OUR OLD RECORD FOR
THE WETTEST JULY. THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 11.92 IN 1931 AND AGAIN
IN 1976. OBVIOUSLY...THIS IS ONLY THE FOURTH DAY OF THE
MONTH.

MAIN CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE ON A WEAK CONVERGENCE LINE FROM
LAREDO TO MATHIS TO ROCKPORT...THEN OFFSHORE SOUTH OF PORT
OCONNOR. MAIN IMMEDIATE TERM FORECAST QUESTION IS THE EXTENT OF
CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NORTHERN RIO GRANDE PLAINS.
CONVECTION IS SCATTERED IN NATURE AT THE MOMENT...BUT WILL FILL IN
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE DRIFTS SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST.

WILL CONTINUE SCEC OVER MARINE AREAS USING PREVIOUS REASONING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 443 AM CDT WED JUL 4 2007/

..EXCESSIVE RAINFALL EVENT FOR SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
   JULY 4TH...

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)...CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE MID TO
UPPER LEVEL LOW DRIFTS SOUTHWEST INTO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. MODELS
ARE SIMILAR WITH KEEPING THE LOW NEAR LAREDO TONIGHT. VERY DEEP
MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FROM 2.2 TO 2.5
INCHES. A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS IS LOCATED FROM NEAR PORT LAVACA TO
NORTH OF LAREDO. THE MODELS KEEP THIS SURFACE TO 85H TROUGH AXIS IN
PLACE OVER THE BRUSH COUNTRY THROUGH TONIGHT. EXPECT NUMEROUS TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR OVER SOUTH TEXAS
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE BRUNT OF THE HEAVY RAIN ACTIVITY MAY SHIFT
TOWARD THE LOW CENTER LATER TONIGHT AND AWAY FROM THE COAST LATE
THIS EVENING. EXTENDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. RAIN AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES WILL BE COMMON WITH
MAXIMUM RAIN AMOUNTS UP TO 12 INCHES POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER THE
BRUSH COUNTRY THROUGH TONIGHT.

AVIATION...MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE PREVALENT OVER THE REGION WITH
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND T-STORMS
THROUGH TONIGHT.

MARINE...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WILL AFFECT
THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE
SCEC RANGE THROUGH TONIGHT MAINLY OVER THE GULF WATERS.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...WET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO PERSIST INTO THURSDAY WITH THE UPPER LOW CONTINUING TO SPIN
ACROSS S TX...BUT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHIFTING NW. IN
ADDITION...THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS PROGD TO BE ACROSS THE
INLAND AREAS THEREFORE THE BEST FOCUS FOR PRECIP WILL SHIFT FARTHER
WEST ON THU. THE RIDGE IS PROGD TO BEGIN TAKING CONTROL FROM THE E
THRU FRI WITH DRIER MID/UPPER LEVELS FILTERING ACROSS THE REGION.
THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE SLIGHTLY WETTER THRU THE WEEKEND EVEN WITH
THE RIDGE BLDG IN FROM THE E...MAINLY DUE TO THE UPPER LOW REMAINING
AN INFLUENCE AS IT SPINS ACROSS W TX AND NOT AS FAR WEST AS PREVIOUS
RUNS ADVERTISED. AM EXPECTING MAINLY AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE DRIVEN SCT
SHRAS AND TSRAS ON FRI AND ISOL THRU THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT
WEEK. SFC WINDS ALSO DO NOT LOOK AS STRONG ON THU AS ONLY A WEAK SFC
TROF IS FCST TO DVLP ACROSS MEX. GENERALLY A WEAK TO MOD ONSHORE
FLOW WILL PERSIST THRU THE PERIOD ALONG WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    83  76  88  76  90  /  90  70  50  20  20
VICTORIA          83  75  87  74  90  /  90  70  60  20  30
LAREDO            87  74  93  76  97  /  90  90  60  40  30
ALICE             84  75  88  75  92  /  90  90  60  20  30
ROCKPORT          82  77  87  77  90  /  90  60  40  20  20
COTULLA           85  72  88  73  93  /  90  90  70  40  30
KINGSVILLE        84  76  88  75  91  /  90  80  50  20  20
NAVY CORPUS       83  78  87  78  89  /  90  60  40  20  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...DUVAL...GOLIAD...JIM WELLS...
     KLEBERG...LA SALLE...LIVE OAK...MCMULLEN...NUECES...
     REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO...VICTORIA...WEBB.

GM...NONE.

&&

JV/71...SHORT TERM
TM/95...LONG TERM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
546 AM CDT WED JUL 4 2007

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-TXZ229>234-239>247-042215-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT OCONNOR-
COASTAL WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 TO 60 NM-
LA SALLE-MCMULLEN-LIVE OAK-BEE-GOLIAD-VICTORIA-WEBB-DUVAL-
JIM WELLS-KLEBERG-NUECES-SAN PATRICIO-ARANSAS-REFUGIO-CALHOUN-
546 AM CDT WED JUL 4 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS AND THE MIDDLE
TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS COMBINED WITH AN EXTREMELY MOIST AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAIN. RAIN AMOUNTS OF
2 TO 5 INCHES WILL BE COMMON ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS WITH LOCAL MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS UP TO 12 INCHES THROUGH TONIGHT. DUE TO SATURATED GROUNDS
FROM PREVIOUS RAINS...FLOODING IS LIKELY TO OCCUR WITH ANY
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR
ALL OF SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH THURSDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ACROSS
ALREADY SATURATED SOILS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO ADDITIONAL FLOODING
PROBLEMS THROUGH THURSDAY. ADDITIONAL RAIN AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES
WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY.

FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN
BE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY...ISOLATED SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THESE
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PRIMARILY BE ASSOCIATED WITH DAYTIME HEATING
AND THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

TMT/TE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
907 AM CDT WED JUL 04 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0854 AM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SE TAFT               27.96N 97.37W
07/04/2007                   SAN PATRICIO       TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            LARGE TREE OVER HIGHWAY 631 JUST SOUTHEAST OF TAFT. WATER
            ALSO COVERING SOME COUNTY ROADS

&&

NH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1004 AM CDT WED JUL 04 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1002 AM     FLASH FLOOD      10 NE TILDEN            28.55N 98.43W
07/04/2007                   MCMULLEN           TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HIGHWAY 99 FROM TILDEN NORTHEAST TO THE LIVE OAK COUNTY
            BORDER IS CLOSED

1002 AM     FLASH FLOOD      20 S TILDEN             28.16N 98.54W
07/04/2007                   MCMULLEN           TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            MANY OF THE FARM TO MARKET ROADS IN SOUTH MCMULLEN COUNTY
            ARE UNDER WATER

&&

NH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1009 AM CDT WED JUL 04 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1008 AM     FLASH FLOOD      WHITSETT                28.62N 98.28W
07/04/2007                   LIVE OAK           TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HIGHWAY 99 AT WHITSETT IS UNDER WATER

&&

NH

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1231 PM CDT WED JUL 04 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1145 AM     FLASH FLOOD      AUSTWELL                28.39N 96.84W
07/04/2007                   REFUGIO            TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TOWN OF AUSTWELL IS UNDER WATER

1145 AM     FLASH FLOOD      WOODSBORO               28.24N 97.32W
07/04/2007                   REFUGIO            TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            STREETS OF LOCKE AND WOOD ARE UNDER WATER

1145 AM     FLASH FLOOD      7 SE WOODSBORO          28.17N 97.24W
07/04/2007                   REFUGIO            TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            FARM TO MARKET ROAD 1360 FROM POND LAKE TO FM 629 IS
            CLOSED

1145 AM     FLASH FLOOD      4 SE WOODSBORO          28.20N 97.28W
07/04/2007                   REFUGIO            TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            PORTIONS OF FARM TO MARKET ROAD 629 ARE UNDER WATER

1145 AM     FLASH FLOOD      10 SW TIVOLI            28.33N 97.00W
07/04/2007                   REFUGIO            TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HIGHWAY 35 FROM FM 774 TO FULTON IS CLOSED

1145 AM     FLASH FLOOD      8 NW REFUGIO            28.39N 97.37W
07/04/2007                   REFUGIO            TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HIGHWAY 183 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF REFUGIO IS UNDER WATER

&&

NH