Flash Flood Warning 86, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
443 AM CDT WED JUL 4 2007

...EXCESSIVE RAINFALL EVENT FOR SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
   JULY 4TH...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)...CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE MID TO
UPPER LEVEL LOW DRIFTS SOUTHWEST INTO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. MODELS
ARE SIMILAR WITH KEEPING THE LOW NEAR LAREDO TONIGHT. VERY DEEP
MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FROM 2.2 TO 2.5
INCHES. A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS IS LOCATED FROM NEAR PORT LAVACA TO
NORTH OF LAREDO. THE MODELS KEEP THIS SURFACE TO 85H TROUGH AXIS IN
PLACE OVER THE BRUSH COUNTRY THROUGH TONIGHT. EXPECT NUMEROUS TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR OVER SOUTH TEXAS
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE BRUNT OF THE HEAVY RAIN ACTIVITY MAY SHIFT
TOWARD THE LOW CENTER LATER TONIGHT AND AWAY FROM THE COAST LATE
THIS EVENING. EXTENDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. RAIN AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES WILL BE COMMON WITH
MAXIMUM RAIN AMOUNTS UP TO 12 INCHES POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER THE
BRUSH COUNTRY THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE PREVALENT OVER THE REGION WITH
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND T-STORMS
THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WILL AFFECT
THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE
SCEC RANGE THROUGH TONIGHT MAINLY OVER THE GULF WATERS.

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...WET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO PERSIST INTO THURSDAY WITH THE UPPER LOW CONTINUING TO SPIN
ACROSS S TX...BUT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHIFTING NW. IN
ADDITION...THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS PROGD TO BE ACROSS THE
INLAND AREAS THEREFORE THE BEST FOCUS FOR PRECIP WILL SHIFT FARTHER
WEST ON THU. THE RIDGE IS PROGD TO BEGIN TAKING CONTROL FROM THE E
THRU FRI WITH DRIER MID/UPPER LEVELS FILTERING ACROSS THE REGION.
THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE SLIGHTLY WETTER THRU THE WEEKEND EVEN WITH
THE RIDGE BLDG IN FROM THE E...MAINLY DUE TO THE UPPER LOW REMAINING
AN INFLUENCE AS IT SPINS ACROSS W TX AND NOT AS FAR WEST AS PREVIOUS
RUNS ADVERTISED. AM EXPECTING MAINLY AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE DRIVEN SCT
SHRAS AND TSRAS ON FRI AND ISOL THRU THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT
WEEK. SFC WINDS ALSO DO NOT LOOK AS STRONG ON THU AS ONLY A WEAK SFC
TROF IS FCST TO DVLP ACROSS MEX. GENERALLY A WEAK TO MOD ONSHORE
FLOW WILL PERSIST THRU THE PERIOD ALONG WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    83  76  88  76  90  /  90  70  50  20  20
VICTORIA          83  75  87  74  90  /  90  70  60  20  30
LAREDO            87  74  93  76  97  /  90  90  60  40  30
ALICE             84  75  88  75  92  /  90  90  60  20  30
ROCKPORT          82  77  87  77  90  /  90  60  40  20  20
COTULLA           85  72  88  73  93  /  90  90  70  40  30
KINGSVILLE        84  76  88  75  91  /  90  80  50  20  20
NAVY CORPUS       83  78  87  78  89  /  90  60  40  20  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...DUVAL...GOLIAD...JIM WELLS...
     KLEBERG...LA SALLE...LIVE OAK...MCMULLEN...NUECES...
     REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO...VICTORIA...WEBB.

GM...NONE.

&&

TT/89...SHORT TERM
TE/81...LONG TERM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
546 AM CDT WED JUL 4 2007

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-TXZ229>234-239>247-042215-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT OCONNOR-
COASTAL WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 TO 60 NM-
LA SALLE-MCMULLEN-LIVE OAK-BEE-GOLIAD-VICTORIA-WEBB-DUVAL-
JIM WELLS-KLEBERG-NUECES-SAN PATRICIO-ARANSAS-REFUGIO-CALHOUN-
546 AM CDT WED JUL 4 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS AND THE MIDDLE
TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS COMBINED WITH AN EXTREMELY MOIST AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAIN. RAIN AMOUNTS OF
2 TO 5 INCHES WILL BE COMMON ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS WITH LOCAL MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS UP TO 12 INCHES THROUGH TONIGHT. DUE TO SATURATED GROUNDS
FROM PREVIOUS RAINS...FLOODING IS LIKELY TO OCCUR WITH ANY
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR
ALL OF SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH THURSDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ACROSS
ALREADY SATURATED SOILS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO ADDITIONAL FLOODING
PROBLEMS THROUGH THURSDAY. ADDITIONAL RAIN AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES
WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY.

FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN
BE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY...ISOLATED SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THESE
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PRIMARILY BE ASSOCIATED WITH DAYTIME HEATING
AND THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

TMT/TE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
622 AM CDT WED JUL 04 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0610 AM     FLASH FLOOD      TIVOLI                  28.43N 96.88W
07/04/2007                   REFUGIO            TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ROADS IN AND AROUND TIVOLI ARE UNDER WATER

&&

NH