Flash Flood Warning 33, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

000 
WGUS74 KCRP 272101
FFSCRP

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
357 PM CDT SUN MAY 27 2007

TXC273-272145-
KLEBERG-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF KINGSVILLE
357 PM CDT SUN MAY 27 2007

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM CDT FOR
WESTERN KLEBERG COUNTY...

AT 355 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN OVER AREAS ALONG 
AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 77 IN KLEBERG COUNTY.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO... 
KINGSVILLE AND RICARDO.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE 
WARNED AREA.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

LAT...LON 2730 9806 2731 9781 2753 9779 2761 9803

$$

TM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1119 AM CDT SUN MAY 27 2007

.UPDATE...INITIAL MID-UPR TROUGH AXIS WILL SLOWLY LIFT E-NE ACROSS S
CEN TEX THROUGH THE AFTN. SCT COASTAL SHOWERS AND TSTMS THAT
DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSITION INLAND SLOWLY.
SEEING MUCH BETTER HEATING TODAY AND EXPECT VERY UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE...ESP ACROSS INLAND AREAS THIS AFTN. CAPES OF 2000-3000
J/KG MAY BE REALIZED SOME AREAS THIS AFTN. MAIN CONCERN FOR
HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE ACROSS INLAND COASTAL PLAINS BETWEEN
HIGHWAY 77 AND HIGHWAY 16 (ESP FROM VCT TO MATHIS TO CHOKE CANYON
NORTHWARD) AS CURRENT ACTIVITY ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND POSSIBLY
MERGES WITH TSTMS OR OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COMING OUT OF OLD MEXICO.
HAVE RAISED POPS AND QPF THIS AREAS WHILE LOWERING ALONG IMMEDIATE
COAST/OFFSHORE THIS AFTN. EXPECT SOME 1-3 INCH TOTALS AND EVEN
ISOLD 3-6 INCH AMOUNTS WHERE GOOD BOUNDARY MERGERS OCCUR IN
HIGHEST AREA OF CONCERN. MAY UPDATE TO LOWER ALONG THE COAST A
LITTLE MORE LATER FOR REMAINDER OF THE AFTN...BUT IF THINGS REALLY
BLOW UP INLAND...CANT RULE OUT COMPLEX TRYING O PUSH BACK TOWARD
THE COAST THIS EVENING. ALSO TWEAKED TEMPS WINDS TO SOME DEGREE IN
THE UPDATE.

REGARDING FLASH FLOOD WATCH...WILL PLAY ERN COS BY EAR DEPENDING ON
HOW THINGS EVOLVE THIS AFTN...BUT EXPECT TO DROP IT IN WRN COS
THIS AFTN ONCE THINGS SHIFT EAST FOR GOOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 419 AM CDT SUN MAY 27 2007/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...THE GFS CONTINUES TO PROG THE
UPPER DISTURBANCE TO PROGRESS FASTER THAN THE NOGAPS/ECMWF DRG THE
PERIOD. CONCUR MOSTLY WITH THE SLOWER SOLN...AND ANTICIPATE SYNOPTIC
SCALE LIFT AREAWIDE TDA/TNGT...WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE POSSIBLE
LATE MONDAY. COPIOUS MSTR AND AT LEAST MODERATE INSTABILITY EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE DRG THE PERIOD. WL ISSUE SCT/LIKELY POPS FOR THE DAYTIME
HOURS TDA/MON...YET LOWER POPS OVR THE WRN CWFA MON. ALTHOUGH
SIGNIFICANT VERTICAL 0-6KM SHEAR WL REDUCE PRECIPITATION
EFFICIENCIES SOMEWHAT...WL MAINTAIN THE FFA AREAWIDE FOR TDA OWING
TO VERY LOW FFG VALUES COUPLED WITH COPIOUS MSTR/HIGH RAINFALL
COVERAGE.

AVIATION...EXPECTED ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS SUPPORT PREMODINATE MVFR
CEILINGS. IFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES ANTICIPATED NEAR CONVECTION...AND
DRG THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP
LATE MONDAY AFTN OVR THE EXTREME WRN CWFA OWING TO POSSIBLE
SUBSIDENCE.

MARINE...ONSHORE FLOW WL CONTINUE BASED ON THE EXPECTED SYNOPTIC
PATTERN. SCEC CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING OVR THE OFFSHORE
WATERS. CONCUR WITH THE WAVEWATCH SOLN WHICH PROGS SEAS BELOW SCEC
CRITERIA BY TNGT/MONDAY.

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...LONG WAVE TROF IS PROGD
TO DRIFT E WITH THE AXIS JUST E OF S TX BY TUE. SHORT WAVES ROUNDING
THE BASE OF THE TROF WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT...MAINLY FOR THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WITH THE NE
HAVING THE BEST CHC. LATEST MODEL RUNS LOOK LESS IMPRESSIVE HOWEVER
WITH THE BETTER DYNAMICS BEING NE OF THE REGION AND THE CWA BEING ON
THE TAIL END. THEREFORE HAVE LOWERED POPS MON NITE/TUE. FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES INCREASINGLY N AS THE TROF AXIS DRIFTS FARTHER E OF THE
AREA. THE MODELS BRING SHORT WAVES TO TREK SOUTHWARD AND TOWARD THE
NE CWA WED AND THU...PROVIDING SOME WEAK SUPPORT MAINLY DURING THE
PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY THEREFORE HAVE GONE WITH GHOST 10 POPS
DURING THE 00-12Z TIME FRAMES EACH DAY. THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES
INCREASINGLY CONFLUENT ON FRI BUT THE MODELS BRING A WEAK FRONTAL
BDRY NEAR THE CWA WITH SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE TO
WARRANT A SLIGHT CHC. THEN INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE PRECIP SHUTS
OFF ALL TOGETHER WITH THE MID/UPPER RIDGE BECOMING MORE IN CONTROL.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY DUE TO DIVERGING MODELS SOLNS BY THE
WEEKEND...WILL KEEP 10 POPS GOING. A WARMING TREND WILL ALSO TAKE
PLACE WITH THE RIDGE BLDG IN BEHIND THE TROF AXIS AND INCREASING
SUBSIDENT FLOW. A WEAK TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL GENERALLY
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WINDS BACKING TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY
WITH THE APPROACHING WEAK FRONTAL BDRY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    84  71  84  71  85  /  70  50  50  20  20
VICTORIA          82  68  84  68  84  /  70  50  60  20  40
LAREDO            88  73  91  74  93  /  40  30  30  20  10
ALICE             85  69  87  69  87  /  70  40  50  20  30
ROCKPORT          82  74  80  73  84  /  60  50  50  20  20
COTULLA           78  69  87  69  89  /  50  30  30  20  10
KINGSVILLE        85  70  87  70  87  /  70  40  50  20  30
NAVY CORPUS       83  75  81  73  81  /  70  50  50  20  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...DUVAL...GOLIAD...
     JIM WELLS...KLEBERG...LA SALLE...LIVE OAK...MCMULLEN...
     NUECES...REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO...VICTORIA...WEBB.

GM...NONE.

&&

MJG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
557 AM CDT SUN MAY 27 2007

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-TXZ229>234-239>247-281100-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT OCONNOR-
COASTAL WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 TO 60 NM-
LA SALLE-MCMULLEN-LIVE OAK-BEE-GOLIAD-VICTORIA-WEBB-DUVAL-
JIM WELLS-KLEBERG-NUECES-SAN PATRICIO-ARANSAS-REFUGIO-CALHOUN-
557 AM CDT SUN MAY 27 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS AND THE MIDDLE
TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING ARE
POSSIBLE. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
MONDAY...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING.
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

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