Flash Flood Warning 32, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
947 PM CDT SAT MAY 26 2007

.UPDATE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR OUR ENTIRE CWA
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MONITORING MCS IN OLD MEXICO TRACKING
EAST TOWARD THE TX BORDER. 00Z NAM PICKS UP ON THIS FEATURE AND
PIVOTS IT ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
OVERNIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS REVEAL PLENTY OF CAPE WITH VALUES
OVER 2000 J/KG OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...HOWEVER THE H85 FLOW IS
VERY WEAK AND GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTH WHICH IS
NOT VERY CONDUCIVE FOR SEWD PROPAGATION. IN SUMMARY BELIEVE OUR
NORTHERN CWA WILL RECEIVE RAIN FROM THIS SYSTEM OVERNIGHT.

ALSO MONITORING THE REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO
WHICH WERE DRIFTING NORTH TOWARD THE COAST. EXPECT THESE TO IMPACT
THE COASTAL COUNTIES OVERNIGHT WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AS WEAK
MOISTURE ADVECTION IS ENHANCED BY 50KT UPR LEVEL SPEED MAX AND
DEEPENING MID LVL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTH TEXAS REGION. THEREFORE
HAVE BUMPED POPS UP BY 10% TO 50% ALL AREAS FOR TONIGHT...BECAUSE
THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN HOW WIDESPREAD THE
RAINS MAY GET OVERNIGHT. HIGHEST QPF SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST CWA AND GENERALLY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUN MORNING
WITH ANOTHER BULLSEYE ACROSS THE SE CWA. DID NOT MAKE ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE SKYCOVER OR TEMPS AS THEY APPEAR ON
TRACK. WILL SEND OUT UPDATED ZONES SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...ATTM...EXPECT MAIN BRUNT OF CONVECTION TO OCCUR OVR THE
EASTERN SECTIONS AFT 06Z (MAINLY VCT AREA)...AS STREAMER SHOWERS
MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE GULFMEX. APPEARS WEAK FORCING ALOFT
TOMORROW MRNG WILL COMBINE WITH SOME HEATING TO PRODUCE CONVECTION
KCRP-KVCT AREA BFR SPREADING WWD DURG THE DAY AS COULD SEE A WEAK
SEA-BREEZE. CONVECTION WEST OF KCRP EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED IN
NATURE...SO AT THIS TIME WENT WITH PROB30 AT KLRD AND TEMPO AT KALI.
COULD SEE SOME LINGERING FARTHER EAST IN THE AFTERNOON SO DID
MAINTAIN AT LEAST A PROB30 KCRP AND KVCT FOR PART OF THE AFTN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    69  82  70  84  71  /  50  50  30  50  30
VICTORIA          68  81  67  82  68  /  50  60  30  60  30
LAREDO            72  87  73  90  74  /  50  40  40  30  30
ALICE             68  83  68  86  69  /  50  50  30  50  30
ROCKPORT          71  81  72  83  73  /  50  50  40  50  40
COTULLA           68  85  68  86  69  /  50  50  40  40  30
KINGSVILLE        69  83  69  86  70  /  50  50  20  50  30
NAVY CORPUS       72  82  73  84  73  /  50  50  40  50  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...DUVAL...GOLIAD...JIM
     WELLS...KLEBERG...LA SALLE...LIVE OAK...MCMULLEN...NUECES...
     REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO...VICTORIA...WEBB.

GM...NONE.

&&

JM/75...SHORT TERM
GW/86...AVIATION

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1131 AM CDT SAT MAY 26 2007

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-TXZ229>234-239>247-271030-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT OCONNOR-
COASTAL WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 TO 60 NM-
LA SALLE-MCMULLEN-LIVE OAK-BEE-GOLIAD-VICTORIA-WEBB-DUVAL-
JIM WELLS-KLEBERG-NUECES-SAN PATRICIO-ARANSAS-REFUGIO-CALHOUN-
1131 AM CDT SAT MAY 26 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS AND THE MIDDLE
TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ALONG AND EAST OF A VICTORIA TO PORT
ARANSAS LINE THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. LOCALLY HEAVIER RAINFALL
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING MAY ALSO OCCUR
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DECREASE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.