Severe Thunderstorm Warning 190, NWS Cleveland, OH

000 
WWUS51 KCLE 280037
SVSCLE

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
836 PM EDT FRI JUL 27 2007

OHC005-280045-
/O.CON.KCLE.SV.W.0190.000000T0000Z-070728T0045Z/
ASHLAND OH-
836 PM EDT FRI JUL 27 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 845 PM EDT
FOR NORTHERN ASHLAND COUNTY...

AT 832 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL. 
THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 11 MILES EAST OF JEROMESVILLE...OR ABOUT NEAR
WOOSTER...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL WAS REPORTED WITH THIS STORM IN THE CITY OF ASHLAND.


LAT...LON 4104 8216 4092 8234 4068 8211 4089 8212

$$

000 
WWUS51 KCLE 280042 CCA
SVSCLE

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
836 PM EDT FRI JUL 27 2007

OHC005-280045-
/O.CON.KCLE.SV.W.0190.000000T0000Z-070728T0045Z/
ASHLAND OH-
836 PM EDT FRI JUL 27 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 845 PM EDT 
FOR ASHLAND COUNTY...

AT 832 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL. 
THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 11 MILES EAST OF JEROMESVILLE...OR ABOUT NEAR
WOOSTER...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL WAS REPORTED WITH THIS STORM IN THE CITY OF ASHLAND.


LAT...LON 4104 8216 4092 8234 4068 8211 4089 8212

$$

000 
WWUS51 KCLE 280053
SVSCLE

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
853 PM EDT FRI JUL 27 2007

OHC005-280103-
/O.EXP.KCLE.SV.W.0190.000000T0000Z-070728T0045Z/
ASHLAND OH-
853 PM EDT FRI JUL 27 2007

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR ASHLAND COUNTY 
EXPIRED AT 845 PM EDT...

LAT...LON 4104 8216 4092 8234 4068 8211 4089 8212

$$

FITZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
709 PM EDT FRI JUL 27 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND CROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO
THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
INSTABILITY HAS BEEN BUILDING ALL AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER
WESTERN OHIO WHERE CAPE VALUES HAVE RISEN TO OVER 2500 J/KG AS
DEEP SHEAR (0-6KM) HAS RISEN TO 25-30 KNOTS OVER THE SAME AREA.
SOME INSTABILITY IS EVIDENT EAST ALONG THE LAKESHORE FROM CLE TO
ERI WHILE RAIN COOLED STABLE CONDITIONS EXIST FROM MEDINA COUNTY
TO YNG. CONVECTIVE CIN IS NEARLY ZERO ACROSS ALL BUT THE EASTERN
COUNTIES AND CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED JUST WEST OF TOL FDY AREA
WHERE THE INSTABILITY IS GREATEST. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD PROGRESS
ESE INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING AND MAY BECOME SEVERE. RECENT
HEAVY RAIN MAY INCREASE THE FLOOD RISK AS WELL BUT WILL NOT ISSUE
A FFA AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING BUT THE
CHANCE OF STORMS WILL LIKELY INCREASE AROUND NOON ON SATURDAY AS
THE COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH OF LAKE ERIE INTO NORTHERN OHIO AND NW
PA. INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MODERATELY HIGH OVER 2000 J/KG
ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-77 AND SOUTH OF I-90.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FAIR WEATHER WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS IN STORE FOR THE
REGION AS HEIGHTS RISE OVER THE EASTERN STATES AND WARMER AIR OVER
THE MIDWEST GRADUALLY SPREADS EAST. BOTH GFS AND ECMWRF ARE
FORECASTING HEIGHTS TO RISE OVER THE EASTERN STATES UNTIL LATE IN
THE WEEK WHEN A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL BRUSH ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TIER STATES WHICH MAY DRAG A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA FRIDAY.
THIS FEATURE MAY PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE
USED GFS GRIDDED MOS WITH MINOR CHANGES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AFTERNOON INSTABILITY HAS RESULTED IN SCATTERED TSTMS ACROSS THE
AREA. EXPECT CONVECTION TO BECOME INCREASINGLY SPARSE THROUGH THE
EVENING. WEAKENING COLD FRONT/TROF JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND BRING IN SLIGHTLY DRIER MORE STABLE
AIR ON A NLY FLOW. FOR THE EVENING WILL CARRY TEMOP THUNDER FOR A
FEW HOURS IN KCAK AND SHWRS IN KCLE...OTHERWISE VCTS OR NOTHING.
DRY AIR ALOFT WILL SPREAD IN AND WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINING IN PLACE WOULD EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP MOST PLACES.
BROUGHT IN MVFR VSBYS TRENDING TO IFR BY EARLY MORNING. SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THE NAM12 CONTINUES TO SHOW AFTERNOON INSTABILITY WITH
CAPES APROACHING 2000J/KG. WITH LACK OF FORCING BEHIND THE BOUNDRY
WILL LEAVE OUT ANY FORECAST OF CONVECTION FOR NOW.

BEHIND COLD FRONT...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE BY SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
THE DOMINATE WEATHER FEATURE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK...AND WILL ALLOW FOR MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS IN THE AREA DURING
THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER LOWER LAKE MICHIGAN WITH A WARM
FRONT EXTENDING BACK TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE LOW AND THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE ERIE TONIGHT WITH THE
FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE LAKE SATURDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THINK THAT THE WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST BUT
REMAIN AROUND 10-15KTS.  POST-FRONTAL PRESSURE GRADIENT AND COLD
ADVECTION RELATIVELY BENIGN SO AM NOT EXPECTING A BIG INCREASE IN
THE WINDS/WAVES SATURDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE LAKE ON
SUNDAY AND WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...REL
NEAR TERM...REL
SHORT TERM...REL
LONG TERM...REL
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...LEINS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
606 AM EDT FRI JUL 27 2007

LEZ142>149-162>169-OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089-
PAZ001>003-281015-
MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH OHIO-RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OHIO-
THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION OHIO-VERMILION TO AVON POINT OHIO-
AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK OHIO-WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE LAKE OHIO-
GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT OHIO-CONNEAUT OHIO TO RIPLEY NY-
MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH OHIO BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OHIO BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION OHIO BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
VERMILION TO AVON POINT OHIO BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK OHIO BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE OHIO BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-GENEVA-ON-
THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT OHIO BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
CONNEAUT OHIO TO RIPLEY NY BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-LUCAS-WOOD-OTTAWA-
SANDUSKY-ERIE OH-LORAIN-CUYAHOGA-LAKE-GEAUGA-ASHTABULA INLAND-
HANCOCK-SENECA-HURON-MEDINA-SUMMIT-PORTAGE-TRUMBULL-WYANDOT-CRAWFORD-
RICHLAND-ASHLAND-WAYNE-STARK-MAHONING-MARION-MORROW-HOLMES-KNOX-
ASHTABULA LAKESHORE-NORTHERN ERIE-SOUTHERN ERIE-CRAWFORD PA-
606 AM EDT FRI JUL 27 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR LAKE ERIE...NORTH CENTRAL
OHIO...NORTHEAST OHIO...NORTHWEST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. THE
MAIN THREAT WILL BE WIND AND HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING.