Severe Thunderstorm Warning 188, NWS Cleveland, OH

000 
WWUS51 KCLE 272250
SVSCLE

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
650 PM EDT FRI JUL 27 2007

OHC077-272315-
/O.CON.KCLE.SV.W.0188.000000T0000Z-070727T2315Z/
HURON OH-
650 PM EDT FRI JUL 27 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 715 PM EDT
FOR HURON COUNTY...

AT 644 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED 6 MILES EAST OF WAKEMAN...OR ABOUT 13 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
ELYRIA...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

LAT...LON 4127 8238 4125 8283 4101 8282 4099 8245
      4112 8235

$$

000 
WWUS51 KCLE 272308
SVSCLE

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
709 PM EDT FRI JUL 27 2007

OHC077-272319-
/O.EXP.KCLE.SV.W.0188.000000T0000Z-070727T2315Z/
HURON OH-
709 PM EDT FRI JUL 27 2007

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR HURON COUNTY EXPIRES AT 715 PM
EDT...

LAT...LON 4127 8238 4125 8283 4101 8282 4099 8245
      4112 8235

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
258 PM EDT FRI JUL 27 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND CROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...

INSTABILITY HAS BEEN BUILDING ALL AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER
WESTERN OHIO WHERE CAPE VALUES HAVE RISEN TO OVER 2500 J/KG AS
DEEP SHEAR (0-6KM) HAS RISEN TO 25-30 KNOTS OVER THE SAME AREA.
SOME INSTABILITY IS EVIDENT EAST ALONG THE LAKESHORE FROM CLE TO
ERI WHILE RAIN COOLED STABLE CONDITIONS EXIST FROM MEDINA COUNTY
TO YNG. CONVECTIVE CIN IS NEARLY ZERO ACROSS ALL BUT THE EASTERN
COUNTIES AND CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED JUST WEST OF TOL FDY AREA
WHERE THE INSTABILITY IS GREATEST. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD PROGRESS
ESE INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING AND MAY BECOME SEVERE. RECENT
HEAVY RAIN MAY INCREASE THE FLOOD RISK AS WELL BUT WILL NOT ISSUE
A FFA AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING BUT THE
CHANCE OF STORMS WILL LIKELY INCREASE AROUND NOON ON SATURDAY AS
THE COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH OF LAKE ERIE INTO NORTHERN OHIO AND NW
PA. INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MODERATELY HIGH OVER 2000 J/KG
ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-77 AND SOUTH OF I-90.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

FAIR WEATHER WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS IN STORE FOR THE
REGION AS HEIGHTS RISE OVER THE EASTERN STATES AND WARMER AIR OVER
THE MIDWEST GRADUALLY SPREADS EAST. BOTH GFS AND ECMWRF ARE
FORECASTING HEIGHTS TO RISE OVER THE EASTERN STATES UNTIL LATE IN
THE WEEK WHEN A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL BRUSH ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TIER STATES WHICH MAY DRAG A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA FRIDAY.
THIS FEATURE MAY PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE
USED GFS GRIDDED MOS WITH MINOR CHANGES.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO DOMINATE ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN OHIO
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CLDS ARE BREAKING UP A BIT ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...ESP FROM TOL-FDY. MENTIONED
VCTS ACROSS WESTERN AREAS...ALONG WITH CAK AND YNG IN THE EVENT
SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING SE ACROSS NRN OH INTENSIFIES A BIT OVER THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO. ASIDE FROM THAT...FEEL A BIT MORE CONFIDENT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS FOR ACTIVITY ACROSS TOL-
FDY THAN POINTS EAST AS BOTH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND BETTER SURFACE
HEATING WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE WEST. COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO SAG SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINING ACROSS THE AREA AND LIGHTER WINDS
EXPECTED...EXPECT VSBY TO COME DOWN LATER TONIGHT AND TOWARDS
MORNING WITH MENTIONING OF IFR-LIFR VSBYS. WITH COLD FRONT
LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA INTO TOMORROW MORNING...DID NOT QUICKLY
INCREASE VSBYS AND HELD ONTO SOME MVFR CEILINGS.

BEHIND COLD FRONT...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE BY SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
THE DOMINATE WEATHER FEATURE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK...AND WILL ALLOW FOR MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS IN THE AREA DURING
THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...

LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER LOWER LAKE MICHIGAN WITH A WARM
FRONT EXTENDING BACK TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE LOW AND THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE ERIE TONIGHT WITH THE
FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE LAKE SATURDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THINK THAT THE WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST BUT
REMAIN AROUND 10-15KTS.  POST-FRONTAL PRESSURE GRADIENT AND COLD
ADVECTION RELATIVELY BENIGN SO AM NOT EXPECTING A BIG INCREASE IN
THE WINDS/WAVES SATURDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE LAKE ON
SUNDAY AND WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...REL
NEAR TERM...REL
SHORT TERM...REL
LONG TERM...REL
AVIATION...ABE
MARINE...LEINS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
606 AM EDT FRI JUL 27 2007

LEZ142>149-162>169-OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089-
PAZ001>003-281015-
MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH OHIO-RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OHIO-
THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION OHIO-VERMILION TO AVON POINT OHIO-
AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK OHIO-WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE LAKE OHIO-
GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT OHIO-CONNEAUT OHIO TO RIPLEY NY-
MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH OHIO BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OHIO BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION OHIO BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
VERMILION TO AVON POINT OHIO BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK OHIO BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE OHIO BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-GENEVA-ON-
THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT OHIO BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
CONNEAUT OHIO TO RIPLEY NY BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-LUCAS-WOOD-OTTAWA-
SANDUSKY-ERIE OH-LORAIN-CUYAHOGA-LAKE-GEAUGA-ASHTABULA INLAND-
HANCOCK-SENECA-HURON-MEDINA-SUMMIT-PORTAGE-TRUMBULL-WYANDOT-CRAWFORD-
RICHLAND-ASHLAND-WAYNE-STARK-MAHONING-MARION-MORROW-HOLMES-KNOX-
ASHTABULA LAKESHORE-NORTHERN ERIE-SOUTHERN ERIE-CRAWFORD PA-
606 AM EDT FRI JUL 27 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR LAKE ERIE...NORTH CENTRAL
OHIO...NORTHEAST OHIO...NORTHWEST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. THE
MAIN THREAT WILL BE WIND AND HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING.