Areal Flood Warning 4, NWS Cleveland, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
840 PM EDT TUE AUG 7 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT NEAR LAKE ERIE WILL WAVER BACK AND FORTH IN THE AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE ALONG THE FRONT FROM WEST TO
EAST.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AND LAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
UPDATED TO INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY WRN TWO THIRDS OR FORECAST AREA
FOR TONIGHT. MORE TSRA NW IN WILL MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT...NOT SURE
HOW FAR THEY WILL HOLD TOGETHER...BUT ENOUGH TO WARRANT LIKELY
POPS VICE CHC.

A NUMBER OF THINGS TO LOOK AT THIS EVENING RANGING FROM POSSIBLE
ADDITIONAL FLOODING TO SEVERE TSRA. MORNING INTO MIDDAY PRECIP HAS
HELPED TO STABILIZE THE NORTHEASTERN 2/3 OF THE AREA SO THINK SEVERE
THREAT SHOULD BE LIMITED TO MAINLY THE SOUTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WED SHOULD HELP TO
DECREASE COVERAGE OF CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY OVER AND NEAR LAKE ERIE
AS LIGHT FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHERLY.  FURTHER SOUTH SHOULD SEE SCT
TSRA OCCUR BUT MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON...SOME OF THE STORMS COULD
AGAIN BE SEVERE.

NEXT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ON TRACK FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
PER NGM AND NAM FOR MORE WIDESPREAD TSRA WITH POSSIBLE FLOODING AND
SEVERE WEATHER AS AIRMASS REMAINS VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE WITH PWS
OF AROUND 2 INCHES AND LIS PROGGED OF MINUS 4 TO 5. GFS DIFFERS
WITH WAVE ON WED THEN EVERYTHING TO OUR SOUTH ON THU AND THU NITE.
WL SMOOTH DIFFERENCES WITH MODELS AS EXPECT FRONT TO REMAIN IN AREA
AS WEAKS WAVES MOVE ALONG SO CHANCE OF PRECIP IN EVERY PERIOD SEEMS
A REASONABLE MOVE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WITH ENOUGH WRAP MOISTURE AND UPPER TROFINESS LINGERING WILL
CONTINUE SMALL CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE PRECIP ON FRIDAY.  AFTER THIS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN SHOULD MEAN DRY WEATHER ON THE WEEKEND AND
PROBABLY THROUGH MONDAY. WILL BRING IN SLIGHT CHANCE FOR TUESDAY PER
GUIDANCE AS WEAK FRONT SAGS NEAR LAKE ERIE.  GUIDANCE APPEARS TOO
WARM FRI AND SAT WITH EXPECTED NLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ACROS WESTERN AREAS THIS EVENING IN WARM
MOIST UNSTABLE AIR. TSTMS STARTING TO BECOME MORE ORGANIZED AND
MAY DEVELOP INTO MCS.L LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS IN TSTMS WITH GUSTY
WINDS THROUGH ABOUT 06Z. THEN LOW MVFR/IFR VSBY IN FOG WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS IN
HEAVIER THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK... FRONT COULD MOVE BACK NORTH INTO AREA THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY RETURNING THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. RISK OF
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END FRIDAY NIGHT AS FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST FOR
GOOD AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT FLOW WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL PERIODS AS STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE LAKE.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A PROBLEM FOR MARINE INTERESTS BY PRODUCING
LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES. WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE LAKE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. NEXT COLD
FRONT DUE IN ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...DJB/KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...DJB/KOSARIK
AVIATION...RANDEL
MARINE...LOMBARDY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
627 AM EDT TUE AUG 7 2007

LEZ142>149-162>169-OHZ003-007>014-018>023-028>033-038-047-089-
PAZ001>003-081030-
MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH OHIO-RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OHIO-
THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION OHIO-VERMILION TO AVON POINT OHIO-
AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK OHIO-WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE LAKE OHIO-
GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT OHIO-CONNEAUT OHIO TO RIPLEY NY-
MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH OHIO BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OHIO BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION OHIO BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
VERMILION TO AVON POINT OHIO BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK OHIO BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE OHIO BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-GENEVA-ON-
THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT OHIO BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
CONNEAUT OHIO TO RIPLEY NY BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-LUCAS-OTTAWA-
SANDUSKY-ERIE OH-LORAIN-CUYAHOGA-LAKE-GEAUGA-ASHTABULA INLAND-SENECA-
HURON-MEDINA-SUMMIT-PORTAGE-TRUMBULL-CRAWFORD-RICHLAND-ASHLAND-WAYNE-
STARK-MAHONING-HOLMES-KNOX-ASHTABULA LAKESHORE-NORTHERN ERIE-
SOUTHERN ERIE-CRAWFORD PA-
627 AM EDT TUE AUG 7 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR LAKE ERIE...NORTH CENTRAL
OHIO...NORTHEAST OHIO...NORTHWEST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR LAKE ERIE...NORTH CENTRAL
OHIO...NORTHEAST OHIO...NORTHWEST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY...MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SEVERE STORMS WOULD LIKELY HAVE
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS
CAPABLE OF LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TODAY.

OHZ006-017-027-036-037-081030-
WOOD-HANCOCK-WYANDOT-MARION-MORROW-
627 AM EDT TUE AUG 7 2007

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL OHIO AND
NORTHWEST OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OFF AROUND 100 DEGREES THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT
THE HEAT ADVISORY.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY...MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SEVERE STORMS WOULD LIKELY HAVE
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS
CAPABLE OF LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1128 PM EDT TUE AUG 07 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1050 PM     TSTM WND DMG     RAVENNA                 41.16N 81.24W
08/07/2007                   PORTAGE            OH   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            FEW TREES DOWN

&&

RANDEL