Areal Flood Warning 13, NWS Cleveland, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
147 AM EDT TUE AUG 21 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WAS NEARLY STATINARY ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO WHILE A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT. THE FRONT
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA
WEDNESDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
BULK OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE SHIFTED SOUTH
OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. SO...DECIDED TO DROP
THE FLOOD WATCH IN THE NORTH. WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS FOR THE
NORTHERN HALF THROUGH THE NIGHT AS PERIODIC SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA.

SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE FLOOD WATCH UNTIL
6 AM IN THE MORNING AS OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE
ACROSS THIS AREA. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS OVERNIGHT.

BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION IS TRYING TO PUSH INTO THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF INDIANA. MODELS SUGGEST THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT.

I AMENDED TEMPERATURES IN THE TEXT FORECAST TO GENERALLY SAY
TEMPERATURES NEARLY STEADY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA HAS KIND OF BEEN THE OUTLIER THROUGH THIS
EVENT WITH MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION REMAINING WEST AND SOUTH OF
THAT AREA. FORECAST FOR THIS AREA LOOKS GOOD AND WILL CONTINUE
WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST OF AREA IN MORNING AND EXPECT TO
SEE A DECREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WILL GO
WITH HIGH POPS IN MORNING CUTTING BACK TO CHANCE IN THE AFTERNOON.
WARM FRONT LIFT NE TUE NIGHT WHILE COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST. AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILD NWD FRONT WILL SLOW AND
HANG UP NW OF THE AREA. DEEP MOIST FLOW WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS GOING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE SOUTH BUILDING IN...SURFACE COLD
FRONT GETS HUNG UP JUST TO THE N/NW OF THE AREA. THIS KEEPS THE
AREA IN MOIST SW FLOW. WITH WEAK S/W MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WILL
KEEP CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM GOING IN THE LONG TERM
FORECAST INTO SUNDAY WHEN THE COLD FRONT FINALLY MOVES THROUGH.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND IT WILL BE
LESS HUMID AND SOMEHAT COOLER THOUGH TEMPERTURES NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WARM FRONT IS OVER EXTREME NORTHERN OHIO WITH SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH. THIS PRECIPITATION WILL EVENTUALLY DECREASE
THIS AM. CONDITIONS NEAR THE WARM FRONT WILL VARY FROM MVFR TO
IFR. CONDITIONS MAY TRY TO IMPROVE TO VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THE QUESTION IS THE COMPLEX OVER IOWA WILL IT MAKE IT HERE. MODELS
ARE TRYING TO SAY IT WILL WEAKEN ESPECIALLY THE NAM.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH A THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BEST CHANCE IS SATURDAY WITH FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVING CLOSER. NON VFR CONDITIONS IN PRECIPITATION.

&&

.MARINE...
BIG CONCERN IS THE STRENGTH OF THE EAST WINDS. THE NAM IS STRONGER
THAN THE GFS...THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD BE OVER THE EAST HALF OF
THE LAKE. THE GFS SEEMS BETTER SO WENT WITH THAT. THE WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO DECREASE TONIGHT AS THE WAVE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT. AT
THIS TIME NO RIP CURRENTS FORECAST...IT WILL BE CLOSE.

OUTLOOK...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE LAKE WEDNESDAY
AND THEN MAINLY A SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW ON THE LAKE THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR OHZ017-
     027>033-036>038-047.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     LEZ142>149.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RANDEL
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...RANDEL
LONG TERM...RANDEL
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...OUDEMAN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
150 AM EDT TUE AUG 21 2007

OHZ003-006>014-018>023-089-220600-
LUCAS-WOOD-OTTAWA-SANDUSKY-ERIE OH-LORAIN-CUYAHOGA-LAKE-GEAUGA-
ASHTABULA INLAND-SENECA-HURON-MEDINA-SUMMIT-PORTAGE-TRUMBULL-
ASHTABULA LAKESHORE-
150 AM EDT TUE AUG 21 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL
OHIO...NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

OHZ017-027>033-036>038-047-220600-
HANCOCK-WYANDOT-CRAWFORD-RICHLAND-ASHLAND-WAYNE-STARK-MAHONING-
MARION-MORROW-HOLMES-KNOX-
150 AM EDT TUE AUG 21 2007

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL
OHIO...NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY OCCUR ESPECIALLY TUESDAY MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

LEZ142>149-162>169-PAZ001>003-220600-
MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH OHIO-RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OHIO-
THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION OHIO-VERMILION TO AVON POINT OHIO-
AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK OHIO-WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE LAKE OHIO-
GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT OHIO-CONNEAUT OHIO TO RIPLEY NY-
MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH OHIO BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OHIO BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION OHIO BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
VERMILION TO AVON POINT OHIO BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK OHIO BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE OHIO BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-GENEVA-ON-
THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT OHIO BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
CONNEAUT OHIO TO RIPLEY NY BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-NORTHERN ERIE-
SOUTHERN ERIE-CRAWFORD PA-
150 AM EDT TUE AUG 21 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR LAKE ERIE AND NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.