Severe Thunderstorm Warning 15, NWS Burlington, VT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
458 PM EDT SAT JUN 2 2007

...SEVERE T-STORM WATCH #331 EFFECTIVE UNTIL 8PM FOR ALL BUT FAR
NRN/NERN VT...

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS FAR NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN
VERMONT IS HELPING TO FOCUS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...AIDED BY AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING EASTWARD FROM SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO.
POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING
WITH ACTIVITY DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY LATE TONIGHT.
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
REDEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER...THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION BARRY ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE NORTH COUNTRY ON
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AIR MASS REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN VT...AND
ALL OF NRN NY...MAINTAINING THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
INTO THIS EVENING. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF 30-40KTS REMAINS SUPPORTIVE
OF ORGANIZED SVR THREAT. MOST WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY WILL TRACK EWD
FROM THE ST. LAWRENCE VLY...SUPPORTED BY MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. OTHER ISOLATED SVR ACTIVITY IN VT AT 2043Z WILL CONTINUE
WITH THREAT OF HAIL TO 1 INCH AND WINDS UP TO 50-55KTS INTO THE
EVENING. SVR THREAT WILL WANE LATE TONIGHT AS LOW-LEVELS COOL AND
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DETAILED SHORT TERM DISCUSSION DELAYED DUE TO ONGOING SVR WX
OPERATIONS. PER SYNOPSIS...AN ACTIVE FORECAST PERIOD IS EXPECTED
WITH REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...AND ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD RAINFALL POSSIBLE MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BARRY BECOME
EXTRATROPICAL AND TRACK NWD INTO NEW ENGLAND. OVERALL QPF OF 1-2
INCHES EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMTS
ESPECIALLY WITH HEAVIER CONVECTIVE STORMS SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
REMNANTS OF EXITING SYSTEM FROM WEEKEND CONTINUE TO LIFT N AND E
AWAY FROM THE REGION. WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF SHOWERS TUES NGT
INTO WED MORN...TAPERING THEM FROM SW TO NE BFR ENDING BY MIDDAY
WED. MDLS HAVE SHIFTED A BIT WITH APPROACH OF NEXT SYSTEM. CURRENT
RUNS FAVOR THURS/FRI DUE TO SFC RIDGE WHICH BUILDS OVER AREA LATE
WED INTO EARLY THURS. WARM FRNTL PRECIP LIFTS N INTO AREA THURS
AFTNOON...MVG N OF CWA BY THURS NGT. THIS WILL PUT CWA INTO WARM
SECTOR AHEAD OF CD FROPA ON FRI INTO SAT MORN. WITH INCR
INSTABILITY OF BEING IN WARM SECTOR...PUT IN MENTION OF TRW BUT
KEPT AT CHANCE POPS DUE TO TIMING IN MDL ISSUES. HIGH PRESSURE
WORKS OVER THE CWA BEHIND FRNT ON SAT CLRING REGION OUT. HAVE USED
HPC MDL TEMPS AND ADJUSTED BASED ON NEW GUIDANCE FOR FRNTS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...SCT RW/TRW PSSBL THRU
00Z-02Z SUN AS MEANDERING FRNTL SYSTEM MVS THRU THE AREA.
EXPECTING COND MAINLY MVFR AS HZ PERSISTS ACROSS THE AREA.
RAINFALL/FG AT SLK/MPV MAY BRING CHANCE OF IFR AT TIMES DUE TO
VSBY RESTRICTION. MAINLY FG/HZ OVERNGT...WITH CHANCE FOR PRECIP
AFT 12Z ACROSS AREA AS DAYTIME HEATING WORKS ON AREA CU. WINDS
MAINLY LGT/VAR THRU 10Z SUNDAY...BECM MORE SSW 5-10KT EXCEPT ENE
AT KMSS. HIR WILL BE OBSCD THRU FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO COMBO OF
HZ/PRECIP AND LWR CEILINGS DUE TO ANY TS FORMATION.

18Z SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FRONTAL BNDRY CONT TO MEANDER ACRS
AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME MVFR POSSIBLE IN MORNING FG/HZ...WHICH
MAY LWR VSBY DOWN TO 3-5SM AT TIMES. REGION WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
CHANCE FOR RW/TRW DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AS SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT
LKS PUSHES EAST. MAINLY MVFR COND DURING THIS TIME. THIS LOW WILL
BE COMBINING WITH TROPICAL REMNANTS MVG NORTH ALONG THE COAST TO
BRING HEAVIER RAINFALL TO THE AREA SUN NGT INTO TUES...BFR CLRING
REGION ON WED. THIS INCR RAINFALL WILL LWR COND FROM MVFR DOWN TO
IFR AT TIMES DUE TO VSBY REDUCTION AND LOWER CEILINGS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SLOW MOVING STORMS POSSBL ON SUNDAY DUE TO RELATIVELY LIGHT MID TO
UPPER LVL WIND REGIME AND MOIST COLUMNAR MOISTURE PROFILES. LOWEST
FF GUIDANCE IS ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF VERMONT...IN PARTICULAR
ACROSS PORTIONS OF FRANKLIN/LAMOILLE/ORLEANS/CALEDONIA/ORANGE
COUNTIES....WHERE 3 HR FF GUIDANCE IS AROUND 2 INCHES DUE TO
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM AFFECTING THESE AREAS OVER THE PAST TWO NIGHTS.
THUS THESE AREAS WOULD HAVE THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL OF ANY LOCALIZED
RUNOFF PROBLEMS ON SUNDAY SHOULD SLOW MOVING CONVECTION DEVELOP.
OUTSIDE OF THESE AREAS...VALUES SOMEWHAT HIGHER...AND ON THE ORDER
OF 3 INCHES.

IN TERMS OF BARRY REMNANTS...AGAIN...FAIRLY QUICK MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM
SHOULD PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD VERY HEAVY RAFL...WITH QPF ENSEMBLE SOLNS
ADVERTISING A BROAD 0.75 TO 1.5 INCH RAFL ACROSS THE ERN TWO THIRDS
OF THE FA DURING THE 24 HR PERIOD FROM 12Z MONDAY TO 12Z TUESDAY.
THIS SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL HYDRO/FLOODING THREAT...THOUGH SINCE WE/RE
DEALING WITH A TROPICAL REMNANT...SITUATION WILL BE MONITORED
CLOSELY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...JN
HYDROLOGY...JMG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
203 PM EDT SAT JUN 2 2007

NYZ026>031-034-035-087-VTZ001-005-008>012-017>019-031815-
NORTHERN ST. LAWRENCE-NORTHERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CLINTON-
SOUTHEASTERN ST. LAWRENCE-SOUTHERN FRANKLIN-WESTERN CLINTON-
WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-SOUTHWESTERN ST. LAWRENCE-GRAND ISLE-
WESTERN CHITTENDEN-WASHINGTON-WESTERN ADDISON-ORANGE-WESTERN RUTLAND-
WINDSOR-EASTERN CHITTENDEN-EASTERN ADDISON-EASTERN RUTLAND-
203 PM EDT SAT JUN 2 2007

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 331 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK...CENTRAL
VERMONT...NORTHWEST VERMONT AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM BARRY IS FORECAST TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL AND THE REMNANTS
OF BARRY WILL BE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST EARLY SUNDAY. THE REMNANTS
OF BARRY WILL THEN MOVE NORTH UP THE EAST COAST AND BE OFF THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO BRING SOME HEAVY RAIN TO PORTIONS OF VERMONT AND
NORTHERN NEW YORK ON MONDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

PLEASE REPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN BURLINGTON.

VTZ002>004-006-007-016-031815-
WESTERN FRANKLIN-ORLEANS-ESSEX-LAMOILLE-CALEDONIA-EASTERN FRANKLIN-
203 PM EDT SAT JUN 2 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST VERMONT AND
NORTHWEST VERMONT.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THIS EVENING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE STRONG.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM BARRY IS FORECAST TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL AND THE REMNANTS
OF BARRY WILL BE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST EARLY SUNDAY. THE REMNANTS
OF BARRY WILL THEN MOVE NORTH UP THE EAST COAST AND BE OFF THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO BRING SOME HEAVY RAIN TO PORTIONS OF VERMONT AND
NORTHERN NEW YORK ON MONDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

BANACOS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
407 PM EDT SAT JUN 02 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0405 PM     HAIL             PERU                    44.58N 73.53W
06/02/2007  M0.75 INCH       CLINTON            NY   CO-OP OBSERVER

            HAIL COVERING DECK

&&

GERALDM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
452 PM EDT SAT JUN 02 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0445 PM     HAIL             SOUTH BURLINGTON        44.45N 73.22W
06/02/2007  E0.88 INCH       CHITTENDEN         VT   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

0420 PM     TSTM WND DMG     NORWOOD                 44.75N 75.00W
06/02/2007                   ST. LAWRENCE       NY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            NUMEROUS TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN.

0445 PM     HAIL             SOUTH BURLINGTON        44.45N 73.22W
06/02/2007  E0.88 INCH       CHITTENDEN         VT   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

GERALDM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
505 PM EDT SAT JUN 02 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0450 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SOUTH BURLINGTON        44.45N 73.22W
06/02/2007                   CHITTENDEN         VT   NWS EMPLOYEE

            6 TO 8 TREES DOWN DIAMETER 1-2 FEET.

&&

GERALDM

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