Severe Thunderstorm Warning 121, NWS Burlington, VT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
118 PM EDT THU AUG 30 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THIS WILL HELP TO ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BRING DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER TO THE
NORTH COUNTRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED 1100 AM EDT THURSDAY.
COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY BISECTING OUR CWA...WINDS HAVE ALREADY
VEERED AROUND TO NW. FRONT WILL EXIT THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EARLY EVENING. BEST INSTABILITY WILL STILL BE OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...SO THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY STRONG GUSTY WINDS OR SMALL
HAIL WILL BE IN OUR SOUTHERN VT COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO RISE AHEAD OF THE FRONT UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN
THE WARM SECTOR. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO THE
CANADIAN BORDER...EXPECTING THUNDERSTORMS TO BE OF A PULSE TYPE
NATURE. SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD COME TO AN END EARLY TONIGHT.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY...BUT STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS
WILL BRING COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER TO THE NORTH COUNTRY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS AND NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE SHOULD EXIST AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPDATED 118 PM THURSDAY

PERSISTENCE FORECAST IN STORE W/GENERALLY QUIET WX FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. MEAN ENSEMBLE FORECASTS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LAST FEW
OPERATIONAL MEDIUM RANGE SOLNS ADVERTISING WEAK FRONTAL BNDRY
TRAVERSING FA MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING W/SCT SHRAS AND POSSIBLY A
FEW TSRAS. OTW SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE TO DOMINATE REGIONAL WEATHER
CONDS W/CLR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND NEAR SEASONAL LATE SUMMER
TEMPS FROM TUE ONWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPDATED 118 PM THURSDAY

FOR THE FIRST 24 HRS...FRONTAL BNDRY CONTINUES TO SINK SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF FA ATTM. EXPECT SCT LOCALLY
STRONG CONVECTION TO AFFECT MAINLY SOUTHERN TAF SITES THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...OTW SCT LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY AND/OR -DZ
TO AFFECT NRN AREAS UNDER LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW. AVBL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT LOWER CIGS/VIS AND ASSOC
MVFR/IFR CONDS ACROSS MANY AREAS OVERNIGHT AS NEAR SATURATED NBL
COMBINED W/LIGHT NORTHERLY SFC FLOW ALLOW AMPLE LL CLOUD COVER
AND/OR BR/FG TO FORM. WILL HOLD ONTO THIS IDEA FOR MOST TAF SITES
OVERNIGHT...IMPROVING CONDS TO VFR AREA WIDE AFTER 12Z FRIDAY AS
MEAN COLUMNAR DRYING INCREASES UNDER WEAK NORTHERLY/NORTHWESTERLY
SFC FLOW.

18Z FRIDAY ONWARD...OTHER THAN PATCHY LATE NIGHT BR/FG IN FAVORED
LOCALES...GENERALLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. BEST
CHANCE OF PCPN AND BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDS WOULD OCCUR MONDAY AFTERNOON
W/WEAK FRONTAL PASSG AND POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...JAN
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1156 AM EDT THU AUG 30 2007

NYZ026>031-087-VTZ001>007-016-017-311600-
NORTHERN ST. LAWRENCE-NORTHERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CLINTON-
SOUTHEASTERN ST. LAWRENCE-SOUTHERN FRANKLIN-WESTERN CLINTON-
SOUTHWESTERN ST. LAWRENCE-GRAND ISLE-WESTERN FRANKLIN-ORLEANS-ESSEX-
WESTERN CHITTENDEN-LAMOILLE-CALEDONIA-EASTERN FRANKLIN-
EASTERN CHITTENDEN-
1156 AM EDT THU AUG 30 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK...NORTHEAST
VERMONT AND NORTHWEST VERMONT.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NYZ034-035-VTZ008>012-018-019-311600-
WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-WASHINGTON-WESTERN ADDISON-ORANGE-
WESTERN RUTLAND-WINDSOR-EASTERN ADDISON-EASTERN RUTLAND-
1156 AM EDT THU AUG 30 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK...CENTRAL
VERMONT AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD THOUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. A
FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE...WITH
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH OF
THE AREA THIS EVENING...THE THREAT OF STRONGER STORMS WILL COME TO
AN END.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON IF STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.

JMG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1028 AM EDT THU AUG 30 2007

VTZ003-004-301530-
ORLEANS-ESSEX-
INCLUDING...CANAAN
1028 AM EDT THU AUG 30 2007

AT 1024 AM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM OVER MORGAN CENTER...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR CANAAN AND 6 MILES NORTH OF LEMINGTON
BY 1050 AM.

HEAVY DOWNPOURS...SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING....AND GUSTY WINDS
UP TO 45 MPH MAY ACCOMPANY THE THUNDERSTORM. IF YOU ARE
OUTSIDE...SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY AS THIS STORM APPROACHES.

MB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1138 AM EDT THU AUG 30 2007

NYZ034-035-VTZ008>012-018-019-302000-
WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-WASHINGTON-WESTERN ADDISON-ORANGE-
WESTERN RUTLAND-WINDSOR-EASTERN ADDISON-EASTERN RUTLAND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LAKE PLACID...PORT HENRY...
TICONDEROGA...MONTPELIER...MIDDLEBURY...VERGENNES...BRADFORD...
RANDOLPH...RUTLAND...SPRINGFIELD...WHITE RIVER JUNCTION...
BRISTOL...RIPTON...EAST WALLINGFORD...KILLINGTON
1138 AM EDT THU AUG 30 2007

...STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA TODAY...

A SURFACE COLD FRONT SAGGING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
AREA...WILL INTERACT WITH WARM TEMPERATURES AND A MOIST LOW LEVEL
AIRMASS. THIS WILL ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW YORK...INTO CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN VERMONT THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME
STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE...WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. AT
THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THE HIGHEST THREAT OF SEEING STRONGER
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
TICONDEROGA...TO BROOKFIELD TO NEWBURY LINE. AS THE FRONT
CONTINUES TO SINK SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING...DRIER NORTHERLY
FLOW AND LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...WILL END THE THREAT OF
ADDITIONAL ACTIVE WEATHER.

PLEASE STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...YOUR LOCAL MEDIA...OR GO
TO WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BURLINGTON FOR FURTHER UPDATES ON THIS WEATHER
SITUATION.

JMG

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