Severe Thunderstorm Warning 43, NWS Brownsville, TX

000 
WWUS54 KBRO 280240
SVSBRO

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
939 PM CDT WED JUN 27 2007

TXC247-280300-
/O.CON.KBRO.SV.W.0043.000000T0000Z-070628T0300Z/
JIM HOGG TX-
939 PM CDT WED JUN 27 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT
FOR CENTRAL JIM HOGG COUNTY...

AT 935 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF RANDADO...OR ABOUT 21 MILES SOUTH OF
HEBBRONVILLE...MOVING NORTH AT 5 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  7 MILES EAST OF RANDADO BY 1000 PM CDT...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

LAT...LON 2692 9892 2688 9872 2713 9863 2718 9888

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
911 PM CDT WED JUN 27 2007

.DISCUSSION...ISSUED UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR CONVECTION AROUND JIM
HOGG AND STARR COUNTIES. THIS DEVELOPMENT IS DUE IN PART TO LEFT
OVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION TO OUR NORTH
FROM EARLIER TODAY. NEARLY STATIONARY THUNDERSTORMS ARE CONTINUING
TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT RAINS OVER THESE COUNTIES AND WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY.

OTHER INHERITED FORECAST TRENDS APPEAR REASONABLE BASED ON LATEST
MODEL FORECAST DATA. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TO
SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
WESTERN ZONES TOMORROW WITH DRIER CONDITIONS TOWARD THE COAST. AN
INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY LATER IN
THE WEEK AND DURING THE WEEKEND AS THE STUBBORN MID LEVEL LOW
GRADUALLY MOVES SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD OUR AREA AROUND THE BUILDING
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH INCREASING TROPICAL
MOISTURE SUPPORTS THE INHERITED FORECAST TREND.

&&

.MARINE...AT 8PM BUOY 42020 REPORTED SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 16 GUSTING
TO 19 KNOTS AND SEAS NEAR 4 FEET.  WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE
OVER THE MARINE AREAS TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES OVER
THE AREA.  GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE MARINE AREAS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH SEAS SUBSIDING
TO AROUND 2 TO 3 FEET.  THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING WITH
LIGHTER WINDS LATER TONIGHT.  CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
GENERALLY VFR OVERNIGHT WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CEILINGS AROUND SUNRISE.
A WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO LIGHTER WINDS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 152 PM CDT WED JUN 27 2007/

DISCUSSION...PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS CTL TX
REMAINS THE MAIN WX FEATURE INTO NEXT WEEK. NAM INITIALIZED
CONVECTION OVER CTL TX SLIGHTLY BETTER SO WILL LEAN TOWARDS NAM
AND BLEND TOWARDS GFS OVER THE WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING INTO THE WEST IS FCST TO BUILD OVER THE UPPER LOW
SHIFTING THIS FEATURE TO THE SW AS RIDGE FORCES ITS WAY INTO THE
REGION. LATEST GUIDANCE DEPICTS THE UPPER LOW WILL BE IN A MORE
FAVORABLE LOCATION BY THIS WEEKEND TO AID IN CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. THIS COULD LEAD TO A FAIRLY WET SCENARIO AS A
TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY OVER WRN CUBA IS FCST TO APPROACH THE
REGION DURING THE WEEKEND. FCST SOUNDINGS DEPICT PWS AT OR OVER 2
INCHES THROUGH MON AS THIS TROPICAL AIRMASS ADVECTS INTO THE
REGION. WILL TREND BELOW MEXMOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS AND POPS IN THE
LONG RANGE AS CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AS MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE
PROBLEMS RESOLVING MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...SCA GMZ130-132-135 THROUGH 02Z
THURSDAY.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR INTERNET WEB PAGE AT:
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/BRO

SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...52
MESO/AVIATION/MARINE...68

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
839 PM CDT WED JUN 27 2007

TXZ248>257-281100-
ZAPATA-JIM HOGG-BROOKS-KENEDY-STARR-HIDALGO-INLAND WILLACY-
INLAND CAMERON-COASTAL WILLACY-COASTAL CAMERON-
839 PM CDT WED JUN 27 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE OVER THE WESTERN
COUNTIES OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THIS EVENING. HEAVY RAINFALL AND SLOW
STORM MOVEMENT WILL CREATE A POSSIBILITY FOR FLASH FLOODING IN THESE
AREAS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING DUE TO THE WINDS. THERE IS A MODERATE
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE BEACHES OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE BEACHES OF DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS ON THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

LERMAN