Flash Flood Warning 36, NWS Brownsville, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1250 PM CDT THU JUN 28 2007

.DISCUSSION...PERSISTENT UPPER LOW CONTINUES OVER NORTH TEXAS IN
BETWEEN TWO RIDGES...ONE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AND THE OTHER OVER
THE SOUTHEAST U.S.  MODELS INDICATE THAT THE RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST WILL WEAKEN AS THE SOUTHWEST RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD...
CAUSING THE UPPER LOW TO RETROGRADE SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHWEST.  IN THE
LOW LEVELS...A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO WORK ITS WAY
WESTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND CAUSING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE OVER DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS.  THIS WILL MAKE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASINGLY
LIKELY BY SUNDAY AND LASTING THROUGH MID-WEEK.  WITH PWATS FORECAST
TO BE NEAR 2 INCHES DURING THIS PERIOD...HAVE GONE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
MEX POPS FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.  TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...BUOY020 REPORTED S WINDS AROUND 5 KTS AND SEAS AT 3 FT.
WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO DECREASE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GULF OVER
THE WEEKEND AND INTERACT WITH THE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
CENTRAL TEXAS TO INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH TEMPO MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS AS WIDELY ISOLD CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS
WRN ZONES. MVFR VIS/CIGS ARE LIKELY AGAIN IN PATCHY FG ACROSS NRN
AND CTL ZONES FRI AM. INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA FRI WILL
PRODUCE MVFR CIGS LATE AM.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  77  88  79  89 /  10  10  30  40
BROWNSVILLE          76  91  77  90 /  10  20  30  40
HARLINGEN            75  92  76  92 /  10  20  30  40
MCALLEN              77  92  78  94 /  10  20  30  40
RIO GRANDE CITY      78  93  79  96 /  20  20  30  40
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   77  85  80  88 /  10  10  30  30
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

SYNOPTIC/GRIDS....68/KL
MARINE/AVIATION...55/BC+53/JE
HMT/MESOSCALE.....VEGA

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR WEB SITE AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
145 PM CDT THU JUN 28 2007

TXZ248>257-291100-
ZAPATA-JIM HOGG-BROOKS-KENEDY-STARR-HIDALGO-INLAND WILLACY-
INLAND CAMERON-COASTAL WILLACY-COASTAL CAMERON-
145 PM CDT THU JUN 28 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN
COUNTIES OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SLOW
STORM MOVEMENT WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPORARY PONDING ON ROADWAYS AND
MOTORISTS ARE URGED TO DRIVE WITH CAUTION DURING PERIODS OF RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

DAYTIME HEATING AND INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS DURING THE PERIOD. MOTORISTS SHOULD
DRIVE WITH CAUTION...AS TEMPORARY PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS WILL
CAUSE VEHICLES TO HYDROPLANE AT HIGHER SPEEDS. SOME URBAN AND SMALL
STREAM FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE AS A RESULT OF THE RAINFALL. NO
OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

TOMASELLI