Severe Thunderstorm Warning 46, NWS Birmingham, AL

000 
WWUS54 KBMX 011816
SVSBMX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1215 PM CST THU MAR 1 2007

ALC091-011825-
/O.EXP.KBMX.SV.W.0046.000000T0000Z-070301T1815Z/
MARENGO AL-
1215 PM CST THU MAR 1 2007

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN MARENGO COUNTY
EXPIRES AT 1215 PM CST...

AT 1215 PM CST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT
THE THUNDERSTORM THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING HAD EXITED THE WARNED
AREA. THUS...THE WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

LAT...LON 3208 8780 3200 8767 3200 8763 3214 8762
      3214 8753 3233 8754

$$
JBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
549 AM CST THU MAR 1 2007

.UPDATE...AVITATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NOT MUCH LEFT BUT THE WAITING...WATCHING...ANALYZING...AND
ADJUSTING.  THE STAGE IS RAPIDLY BECOMING SET FOR A POTENTIAL VERY
HIGH IMPACT SEVERE WEATHER/TORNADO EVENT ACROSS THE AREA.  SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY BREAKING OUT THIS MORNING ARE A RELATIVE
NUISANCE COMPARED TO WHAT COULD DEVELOP LATER TODAY.  SEVERE WEATHER
OUTLOOKS AND STATEMENTS FROM SPC DESCRIBE THE SCENARIO VERY WELL...
AND NO NEED TO REHASH THINGS.  EXPECTED TIMING REMAINS BASICALLY
UNCHANGED...WITH GREATEST THREAT TIME FROM ABOUT NOON TO 8 PM (WEST
TO EAST). NOT TRYING TO NEEDLESSLY HYPE THIS THING AND CREATE A
PANIC.  BUT ALL FOLKS NEED TO BE AWARE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
TORNADOES THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL COUNT ON OUR PARTNERS (MEDIA...
EMA...AND OTHERS) TO HELP GET THE WORD OUT.

COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH TONIGHT...ENDING THE RAIN AND RETURNING
TEMPERATURES BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL.  AND JUST WHEN YOU THOUGHT SPRING
WAS HERE TO STAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE BASE
OF THE EAST COAST UPPER LOW WILL BRING QUITE A SURGE OF COLD AIR INTO
CENTRAL ALABAMA OVER THE WEEKEND.

/61/

THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH A HIGHLY AMPLIFYING WESTERN AND
PLAINS STATES RIDGE...BUT SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT FROM YESTERDAYS
PERSPECTIVE. IT NOW LOOKS AS IF TROUGHING WILL RIDE UP THE WESTERN
SIDE OF THE RIDGE...AND BEGIN TO BEAT IT DOWN BEGINNING SUNDAY. AS
THIS TROUGHING ROLLS OVER THE APEX ON MONDAY...IT WILL DROP AND
DEEPEN ACROSS THE GULF STATES...TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY BE THE
NEXT SHOT FOR SHOWERS IF THERE IS ANY MOISTURE TO PLAY WITH. FOR
NOW LEFT THE EXTENDED DRY.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE BACK TOWARDS NORMAL THROUGH
THE MID-WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...DISCUSSION FOR 12Z TAFS.

WIDESPREAD CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 3000 FT THIS MORNING...WITH WARM
FRONT SURGING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA.  ONCE SUN COMES UP...
CEILINGS MAY RISE A BIT...AND THERE ARE LIKELY TO BE A FEW HOLES IN
THE CLOUDS.  ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REDEVELOP (OR MOVE IN
FROM THE WEST) THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ASSOCIATED WIND GUSTS AND
THREAT OF TORNADOES.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY ALL AREAS FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM TODAY.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1102 AM CST THU MAR 1 2007

ALZ011>015-017>050-020100-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
1102 AM CST THU MAR 1 2007

...HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH TORNADOES THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A HIGH THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING THE RISK
OF TORNADOES...ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA TODAY. THE HIGHEST
POTENTIAL OF SEVERE WEATHER AND TORNADOES WILL BE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT COULD LAST AS LATE AS 9 PM IN EAST ALABAMA.

AN ENHANCED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO THREAT WILL OCCUR LATER
TODAY...AFTER THE WARM FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH AND CONDITIONS
CONTINUE TO WARM DUE TO LIMITED SUNSHINE.  A COLD FRONT APPROACHING
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL SET OFF MORE THUNDERSTORMS. WITH
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS AND SUFFICIENT WIND SHEAR IN PLACE...MANY OF
THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BECOME SEVERE. IN FACT...THE COMBINATION
OF INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR COULD LEAD TO NUMEROUS SUPERCELL
THUNDERSTORMS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG OR LONG-TRACKED
TORNADOES.

THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER AND
TORNADO EVENT ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA.  EVERYONE ACROSS THE AREA
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS...
REVIEW SAFETY PLANS...AND BE READY FOR QUICK ACTION WHEN WARNINGS
ARE ISSUED.

WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND LAST INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...EVEN OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM AREAS. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ISSUED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL HAVE BEEN
ACTIVATED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
918 AM CST THU MAR 1 2007

ALZ046-049-050-011600-
BARBOUR-BULLOCK-PIKE-
918 AM CST THU MAR 1 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IN EFFECT FOR PIKE...BARBOUR AND BULLOCK
COUNTIES UNTIL 1000 AM CST...

...SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE FROM APPROACHING THUNDERSTORMS...

...WINDS 35 TO 45 MILES AN HOUR ARE POSSIBLE FROM APPROACHING
THUNDERSTORMS...

AT 914 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM 5 MILES NORTH OF ORION TO CLIO...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND NEAR CLIO...
BANKS...ORION...LINWOOD...LOUISVILLE...UNION SPRINGS...CLAYTON AND
MOUNT ANDREW THROUGH 1000 AM CST.

THE PRIMARY THREAT IS SMALL HAIL. HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN
DIAMETER...DIME SIZE...IS POSSIBLE. TAKE ACTION TO PROTECT YOURSELF
BY SEEKING SHELTER IN A SUBSTANTIAL ENCLOSED BUILDING. IF OUTDOORS
AND A SUBSTANTIAL ENCLOSED BUILDING IS NOT AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER
IN AN AUTOMOBILE.

THE PRIMARY THREATS ARE SMALL HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS 35 TO 45
MPH. HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER...DIME SIZE...WILL BE
POSSIBLE. STRONG WINDS WILL BREAK OFF SMALL TREE LIMBS AND BLOW
AROUND UNSECURED OBJECTS SUCH AS LAWN FURNITURE AND TRASH CANS. TAKE
ACTION TO PROTECT YOURSELF. SEEK SHELTER IN A SUBSTANTIAL ENCLOSED
BUILDING

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1048 AM CST THU MAR 1 2007

ALZ011>015-017>050-012359-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
1048 AM CST THU MAR 1 2007

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 P.M. TODAY.