Severe Thunderstorm Warning 40, NWS Birmingham, AL

000 
WWUS54 KBMX 011035
SVSBMX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
433 AM CST THU MAR 1 2007

ALC057-011043-
/O.CAN.KBMX.SV.W.0040.000000T0000Z-070301T1045Z/
FAYETTE AL-
433 AM CST THU MAR 1 2007

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR FAYETTE COUNTY IS CANCELLED...

LAT...LON 3397 8794 3411 8783 3418 8779 3420 8777
      3413 8766 3398 8764 3393 8771 3392 8788
      3393 8789 3393 8795

$$

ALC093-011045-
/O.CON.KBMX.SV.W.0040.000000T0000Z-070301T1045Z/
MARION AL-
433 AM CST THU MAR 1 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 AM CST
FOR SOUTHEASTERN MARION COUNTY...

AT 433 AM CST...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 
PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR BRILLIANT...
OR ABOUT 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF WINFIELD...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 40 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  WHITEHOUSE BY 440 AM CST

LAT...LON 3397 8794 3411 8783 3418 8779 3420 8777
      3413 8766 3398 8764 3393 8771 3392 8788
      3393 8789 3393 8795

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
339 AM CST THU MAR 1 2007

.DISCUSSION...
NOT MUCH LEFT BUT THE WAITING...WATCHING...ANALYZING...AND
ADJUSTING.  THE STAGE IS RAPIDLY BECOMING SET FOR A POTENTIAL VERY
HIGH IMPACT SEVERE WEATHER/TORNADO EVENT ACROSS THE AREA.  SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY BREAKING OUT THIS MORNING ARE A RELATIVE
NUISANCE COMPARED TO WHAT COULD DEVELOP LATER TODAY.  SEVERE WEATHER
OUTLOOKS AND STATEMENTS FROM SPC DESCRIBE THE SCENARIO VERY WELL...
AND NO NEED TO REHASH THINGS.  EXPECTED TIMING REMAINS BASICALLY
UNCHANGED...WITH GREATEST THREAT TIME FROM ABOUT NOON TO 8 PM (WEST
TO EAST). NOT TRYING TO NEEDLESSLY HYPE THIS THING AND CREATE A
PANIC.  BUT ALL FOLKS NEED TO BE AWARE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
TORNADOES THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL COUNT ON OUR PARTNERS (MEDIA...
EMA...AND OTHERS) TO HELP GET THE WORD OUT.

COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH TONIGHT...ENDING THE RAIN AND RETURNING
TEMPERATURES BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL.  AND JUST WHEN YOU THOUGHT SPRING
WAS HERE TO STAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE BASE
OF THE EAST COAST UPPER LOW WILL BRING QUITE A SURGE OF COLD AIR INTO
CENTRAL ALABAMA OVER THE WEEKEND.

/61/

THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH A HIGHLY AMPLIFYING WESTERN AND
PLAINS STATES RIDGE...BUT SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT FROM YESTERDAYS
PERSPECTIVE. IT NOW LOOKS AS IF TROUGHING WILL RIDE UP THE WESTERN
SIDE OF THE RIDGE...AND BEGIN TO BEAT IT DOWN BEGINNING SUNDAY. AS
THIS TROUGHING ROLLS OVER THE APEX ON MONDAY...IT WILL DROP AND
DEEPEN ACROSS THE GULF STATES...TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY BE THE
NEXT SHOT FOR SHOWERS IF THERE IS ANY MOISTURE TO PLAY WITH. FOR
NOW LEFT THE EXTENDED DRY.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE BACK TOWARDS NORMAL THROUGH
THE MID-WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     74  42  65  32  60 / 100  60   0   0   0
ANNISTON    75  44  67  39  62 / 100  70   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  75  43  66  39  61 / 100  60   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  76  44  68  43  62 / 100  40   0   0   0
CALERA      76  44  67  40  63 / 100  60   0   0   0
AUBURN      75  48  67  34  64 / 100  90   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  77  47  68  38  66 / 100  80   0   0   0
TROY        79  48  69  38  65 / 100  80   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY ALL AREAS FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM TODAY.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
118 AM CST THU MAR 1 2007

ALZ011>015-017>050-020723-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
118 AM CST THU MAR 1 2007

...HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH TORNADOES TODAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...REST OF TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH DAYBREAK
ACROSS SUMTER...MARENGO AND PIKE COUNTIES...AS WELL AS THE NORTHWEST
COUNTIES OF MARION...LAMAR...WINSTON AND FAYETTE. A WARM FRONT
WILL LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THESE AREAS OVERNIGHT. THE AIR MASS WILL DE-
STABILIZE QUICKLY AND SOME ISOLATED STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS
MAY DEVELOP WITH HAIL AS THE PRIMARY THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THERE IS A THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING THE THREAT OF
TORNADOES...ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THURSDAY. HIGHEST
POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER STARTS AS EARLY AS NOON IN
WEST ALABAMA...AND COULD LAST AS LATE AS MIDNIGHT IN EAST ALABAMA.

A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE THROUGHOUT
THURSDAY MORNING...BRINGING A WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO ALABAMA.
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS EXPECTED
TO SET OFF THUNDERSTORMS...AND WITH UNSTABLE CONDITIONS AND
SUFFICIENT WIND SHEAR IN PLACE...MANY OF THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME SEVERE. IN FACT...THE COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND WIND
SHEAR COULD LEAD TO NUMEROUS SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS...CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING TORNADOES.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AS THE WARM FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. A FEW OF THESE COULD BE SEVERE.
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE DAY WILL PLAY A KEY
ROLE IN DETERMINING THE POTENTIAL SEVERITY OF STORMS THAT DEVELOP
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. IF THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS LINGER INTO THE
AFTERNOON...AND CLOUDS REMAIN THICK...THEN THE ATMOSPHERE WILL HAVE
LESS OPPORTUNITY TO DESTABILIZE. IF THE RAIN MOVES OUT...AND THE SUN
BREAKS THROUGH THE CLOUDS...THEN CONDITIONS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
UNSTABLE...INCREASING THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO RISK.

THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT
ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA...BUT THERE IS STILL A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN
THE EXACT TIMING AND POTENTIAL SEVERITY. EVERYONE ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND
STATEMENTS.

WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY THROUGHOUT THURSDAY AND LAST INTO THE
EVENING HOURS...EVEN OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM AREAS. A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY MAY BE ISSUED.

BEYOND THURSDAY NIGHT...NO ADDITIONAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED ON THURSDAY.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
350 AM CST THU MAR 1 2007

ALZ015-024-011030-
JEFFERSON-WALKER-
350 AM CST THU MAR 1 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IN EFFECT FOR JEFFERSON AND WALKER
COUNTIES UNTIL 430 AM CST...

...SMALL HAIL AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE
FROM AN APPROACHING THUNDERSTORM...

AT 350 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES SOUTH OF TUTWILER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND NEAR TUTWILER...GOODSPRINGS...
WEST JEFFERSON...DORA...SUMITON...WARRIOR AND SIPSEY THROUGH 430 AM
CST.

THE PRIMARY THREAT IS SMALL HAIL. HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN
DIAMETER...DIME SIZE...IS POSSIBLE. TAKE ACTION TO PROTECT YOURSELF
BY SEEKING SHELTER IN A SUBSTANTIAL ENCLOSED BUILDING. IF OUTDOORS
AND A SUBSTANTIAL ENCLOSED BUILDING IS NOT AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER
IN AN AUTOMOBILE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
353 AM CST THU MAR 1 2007

ALZ011>013-011045-
FAYETTE-LAMAR-MARION-
353 AM CST THU MAR 1 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IN EFFECT FOR FAYETTE...LAMAR AND MARION
COUNTIES UNTIL 445 AM CST...

...SMALL HAIL AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE
FROM APPROACHING THUNDERSTORMS...

AT 353 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
TWO THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN LAMAR COUNTY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
40 MPH.

THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND NEAR BELK...
MOLLOY...VERNON...WAYSIDE...MANSFIELD...GLEN ALLEN...BAZEMORE AND
WINFIELD THROUGH 445 AM CST.

THE PRIMARY THREAT IS SMALL HAIL. HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN
DIAMETER...DIME SIZE...IS POSSIBLE. TAKE ACTION TO PROTECT YOURSELF
BY SEEKING SHELTER IN A SUBSTANTIAL ENCLOSED BUILDING. IF OUTDOORS
AND A SUBSTANTIAL ENCLOSED BUILDING IS NOT AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER
IN AN AUTOMOBILE.