Severe Thunderstorm Warning 116, NWS Birmingham, AL

000 
WWUS54 KBMX 121905
SVSBMX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
205 PM CDT TUE JUN 12 2007

ALC051-121915-
/O.CON.KBMX.SV.W.0116.000000T0000Z-070612T1915Z/
ELMORE AL-
205 PM CDT TUE JUN 12 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 215 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN ELMORE COUNTY...

AT 203 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR WARE...OR ABOUT 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF WETUMPKA...MOVING
SOUTH AT 10 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  WARE BY 215 PM CDT...

LAT...LON 3242 8611 3244 8613 3243 8614 3246 8618
      3264 8622 3265 8602 3249 8588 3245 8595
      3246 8599 3242 8602 3241 8605

$$

JRA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1237 PM CDT TUE JUN 12 2007

.UPDATE...FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DID SOME MINOR CHANGES TO SKY COVER AND TEMPERATURES
MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS.  AS WE MOVE INTO AND THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD.  CURRENT FORECAST HANDLES THIS
JUST FINE.  UPDATE ALREADY OUT.

KSL

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

NO WIDESPREAD AREAS OF IMPACT WEATHER EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...BUT THERE ARE A COUPLE SMALL ISSUES TO KEEP AN EYE ON.  HAZE
REMAINS A BIT OF A PROBLEM...ESPECIALLY AROUND ANB.  HAVE GONE WITH
A LARGELY PERSISTENCE BASED FORECAST FOR THE HAZE.  VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS SHOULD REACH THEIR PEAK AROUND 11-13Z...AND (EXCEPT FOR
PERHAPS ANB) SHOULD REMAIN IN THE MVFR CATEGORY AT WORST.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  AT THIS TIME...I DONT SEE ANY ONE LOCATION
WITH ANY MORE THAN A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN.  HAVE THEREFORE
LEFT THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW...BUT MAY NEED TO AMEND
THINGS ONCE STORMS DO DEVELOP.  SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING SOUTHWARD
FROM THE VIRGINIAS INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES COULD ACTUALLY CAUSE
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP/CONTINUE LONGER THAN TYPICAL INTO THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.  LOCATIONS WITH THE BEST CHANCES STORMS
(AND POSSIBLE EVENTUAL AMENDMENTS) ARE ANB...MGM...AND TOI.

/61/

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1235 PM CDT TUE JUN 12 2007

ALZ011>015-017>050-131735-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
1235 PM CDT TUE JUN 12 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DIME TO NICKLE SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO
65 MPH. THE BEST CHANCE OF STRONGER STORMS WILL BE NEAR AND SOUTH OF
I-85...WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL EXIST. AN UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSE AND HEATING OF THE DAY WILL PROVIDE THE MAIN LIFT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. THEREFORE...THE STORMS WILL MOST LIKELY OCCUR
BETWEEN 1 PM AND 8 PM.

WET MICROBURST POTENTIAL:
BIRMINGHAM...LOW.
MONTGOMERY...MODERATE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL
GEORGIA ON THURSDAY. THIS IMPULSE MAY KICK OFF SOME THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS EAST ALABAMA. THE BEST CHANCE FOR A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL
BE NEAR THE ALABAMA GEORGIA STATE LINE FROM NOON UNTIL 8PM.

OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL
MAY BECOME NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON SOUTHEAST.

16