Severe Thunderstorm Warning 115, NWS Birmingham, AL

000 
WWUS54 KBMX 120941
SVSBMX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
438 AM CDT TUE JUN 12 2007

ALC113-121000-
/O.CON.KBMX.SV.W.0115.000000T0000Z-070612T1000Z/
RUSSELL AL-
438 AM CDT TUE JUN 12 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 AM CDT
FOR EAST CENTRAL RUSSELL COUNTY...

AT 438 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR UCHEE
CREEK...OR ABOUT 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF FORT BENNING SOUTH...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL AFFECT AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A 
SEALE TO FORT MITCHELL LINE...INCLUDING HOLY TRINITY.

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

LAT...LON 3235 8516 3242 8501 3238 8497 3233 8500
      3230 8493 3226 8490 3222 8493 3221 8497
      3219 8496 3219 8501 3217 8503

$$

75

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
357 AM CDT TUE JUN 12 2007

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)

A BLOCKING PATTERN OVER THE PLAINS WILL KEEP THE WEATHER PATTERN
RATHER STAGNATE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
PERHAPS OUR BEST SHOT AT SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WILL BE FROM AN MCS
DROPPING SOUTHWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.  ALTHOUGH SUCH A SYSTEM IS
NOT IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME...IT IS VERY DIFFICULT TO FORECAST
SUCH SYSTEMS MORE THAN ABOUT 24 HOURS IN ADVANCE...BUT THE OVERALL
PATTERN AND CLIMATOLOGY ARE FAVORABLE.  OTHERWISE...A COUPLE OF
DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND A RETROGRADING LOW OFF THE EAST COAST
WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYERS IN THE FORECAST.  THE FIRST DISTURBANCE IS
CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.  MOISTURE INCREASES FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA...WITH DEWPOINTS AT OR ABOVE 70 DEGREES
NEAR THE GEORGIA STATE LINE.  ABUNDANT MOISTURE...AND THE UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
EASTERN ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON.  ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LINGERING
FROM YESTERDAYS AND ONGOING CONVECTION WILL ONLY ENHANCE CONVECTION
AND WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCAL POINT OF INITIATION.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS A GOOD PORTION OF SOUTHEASTERN
ALABAMA OUTLINED FOR A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.
THIS AREA IS GENERALLY SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM ANNISTON TO SELMA.
DAMAGING WIND FROM DOWNBURSTS LOOK TO BE THE MAIN THREAT...ALTHOUGH
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.  SHEAR LOOKS
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLULAR STORMS...AND AS IS THE CASE WITH ANY
SUPERCELL...TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS
ARE ALSO SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. LIFTED
INDICES WILL BE IN THE -3 TO -4 RANGE DURING PEAK HEATING WITH CAPES
IN THE 1500 J/KG RANGE.  THE AREA OF GREATEST INSTABILITY WILL GET
SQUASHED SOUTHERLY AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.

WE WILL BE BETWEEN DISTURBANCES TOMORROW AND SHOULD EXPERIENCE A DRY
SEASONABLE DAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S
TO LOW 90S.

THE SECOND DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW OFF
THE EAST COAST WILL TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN GEORGIA ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A BIT FARTHER EAST THAN THE CURRENT SYSTEM.
THUS PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE GREATEST EAST OF INTERSTATE 65.
IN A VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED ATMOSPHERE...WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS
SYSTEM CLOSELY FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS.

PREVAILING NORTHERLY AND EASTERLY FLOW...ALONG WITH INCREASED
MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. IN FACT
TODAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 90S...SLIGHTLY COOLER
TOMORROW AS STATED ABOVE...THEN GRADUAL WARMING THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

12/SIRMON

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SUITE IN RELATIVE AGREEMENT THIS RUN...EXCEPT FOR
THE CMC DEPICTION. WILL GENERALLY ACCEPT THE MODEL CONSENSUS OF A
SLOWLY EVOLVING UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. UPPER RIDGE HOLDS SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. THE GFS HAS THE PATTERN BECOMING MORE PROGRESSIVE ON
DAY 8 WITH AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGING THOUGH THE REGION ALONG WITH A
COLD FRONT...TUESDAY. 18Z GFS DID NOT HAVE THE SAME SOLUTION BUT
HINTED AT A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY. WILL NOT JUMP ON THE 00Z GFS
SOLUTION UNTIL SOME CONTINUITY IS INDICATED FOR A FEW RUNS.

NOT IMPRESSED WITH RAIN CHANCES IN THE EXTENDED AT THIS TIME.
OVERALL ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE LIMITED AND CAPPED. KEPT
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY DRY WHILE MENTIONING CHANCE ON TUESDAY. WENT
WITH THE HIGHER GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS DURING THE PERIOD...SIMILAR TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST WHILE TAKING A BLEND FOR LOWS.

75/LINHARES

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SEVERAL THINGS GOING ON THIS EVENING. FIRST IS A SHORTWAVE PASSING
THROUGH THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE THIS EVENING BRINGING A
BKN TO OVC LAYER AROUND 15K. RADAR IS SHOWING SOME LIGHT RETURNS
WITHIN THIS CLOUD DECK ALTHOUGH MOST OF IT WILL NOT REACH THE
SURFACE. THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT WILL HINGE ON
EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING BETWEEN 1 AND 4K LATE THIS EVENING/EARLY
MORNING. THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR A LAYER OF MOISTURE TO MOVE IN WITH
SCT TO BKN CLOUDS DEVELOPING AROUND 2500 FT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
CEILINGS WOULD BE OVER ANB WHICH SHOULD ALSO HAVE LOWER VIS BETWEEN
2 AND 4SM. ALL OTHER SITES SHOULD BE FREE OF VIS RESTRICTIONS.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON
BUT CHANCES OF AFFECTING AIRPORTS IS VERY SMALL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     93  66  87  65  85 /  10   0  10  10  20
ANNISTON    93  66  87  65  86 /  20  10  10  20  20
BIRMINGHAM  93  67  89  66  86 /  10  10  10  10  20
TUSCALOOSA  97  67  91  67  90 /  10  10   0  10  10
CALERA      93  67  89  64  87 /  20  10  10  10  10
AUBURN      92  65  85  63  83 /  30  10  10  10  20
MONTGOMERY  96  68  93  66  90 /  30  10  10  10  20
TROY        94  68  91  65  87 /  40  10  10  10  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.

&&

07/07/07

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
716 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2007

ALZ011>015-017>050-130018-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
716 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL
WILL NOT BE NECESSARY AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1049 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1008 PM     TSTM WND DMG     OPELIKA                 32.65N 85.38W
06/11/2007                   LEE                AL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            OPELIKA POLICE DEPARTMENT REPORTED SEVERAL LARGE TREES
            DOWN NEAR THE HOSPITAL.

&&

KLAWS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1101 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0950 PM     TSTM WND DMG     8 S LAFAYETTE           32.78N 85.40W
06/11/2007                   CHAMBERS           AL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            CHAMBERS COUNTY SHERIFF REPORTED NUMEROUS LARGE TREES
            DOWN IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTY.

&&

KLAWS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1112 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1013 PM     TSTM WND DMG     AUBURN                  32.59N 85.48W
06/11/2007                   LEE                AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EMA REPORTED NUMEROUS TRESS DOWN ACROSS THE CENTRAL
            PORTION OF THE COUNTY WITH ONE REPORTED TREE ON A HOME
            THAT SUSTAINED DAMAGE. NO INJURIES REPORTED AT THIS TIME.
            NUMEROUS POWER OUTAGES WITHIN THE COUNTY. MOST OF THE
            DOWNED TREES ARE ALONG HWY 131 BETWEEN OPELIKA AND
            AUBURN.

&&

KLAWS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
136 AM CDT TUE JUN 12 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0935 PM     HAIL             PHENIX CITY             32.47N 85.01W
06/11/2007  E0.50 INCH       RUSSELL            AL   PUBLIC

0950 PM     TSTM WND DMG     8 S LAFAYETTE           32.78N 85.40W
06/11/2007                   CHAMBERS           AL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            CHAMBERS COUNTY SHERIFF REPORTED NUMEROUS LARGE TREES
            DOWN IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTY.

1000 PM     HAIL             3 NW OPELIKA            32.68N 85.42W
06/11/2007  E0.88 INCH       LEE                AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

1008 PM     TSTM WND DMG     OPELIKA                 32.65N 85.38W
06/11/2007                   LEE                AL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            OPELIKA POLICE DEPARTMENT REPORTED SEVERAL LARGE TREES
            DOWN NEAR THE HOSPITAL.

1013 PM     TSTM WND DMG     AUBURN                  32.59N 85.48W
06/11/2007                   LEE                AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EMA REPORTED NUMEROUS TRESS DOWN ACROSS THE CENTRAL
            PORTION OF THE COUNTY WITH ONE REPORTED TREE ON A HOME
            THAT SUSTAINED DAMAGE. NO INJURIES REPORTED AT THIS TIME.
            NUMEROUS POWER OUTAGES WITHIN THE COUNTY. MOST OF THE
            DOWNED TREES ARE ALONG HWY 131 AND HWY 146 BETWEEN
            OPELIKA AND AUBURN.

&&

LINHARES

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
211 AM CDT TUE JUN 12 2007

ALZ028-029-120745-
CLAY-RANDOLPH-
211 AM CDT TUE JUN 12 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IN EFFECT FOR CLAY AND RANDOLPH COUNTIES
UNTIL 245 AM CDT...

AT 211 AM CDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM 11 MILES NORTHWEST OF WEDOWEE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15
MPH. THIS STORM WILL AFFECT AREAS EAST OF LINEVILLE IN CLAY COUNTY
AND ALL OF NORTHERN RANDOLPH COUNTY.

THE PRIMARY THREATS ARE SMALL HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS 45 MPH.
HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER...DIME SIZE...WILL BE POSSIBLE.
STRONG WINDS WILL BREAK OFF SMALL TREE LIMBS AND BLOW AROUND
UNSECURED OBJECTS SUCH AS LAWN FURNITURE AND TRASH CANS. TAKE ACTION
TO PROTECT YOURSELF. SEEK SHELTER IN A SUBSTANTIAL ENCLOSED BUILDING

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
244 AM CDT TUE JUN 12 2007

ALZ029-120815-
RANDOLPH-
244 AM CDT TUE JUN 12 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IN EFFECT FOR RANDOLPH COUNTY UNTIL 315
AM CDT...

AT 244 AM CDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WEDOWEE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20
MPH.

THE PRIMARY THREATS ARE SMALL HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS 35 TO 45
MPH. HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER...DIME SIZE...WILL BE
POSSIBLE. STRONG WINDS WILL BREAK OFF SMALL TREE LIMBS AND BLOW
AROUND UNSECURED OBJECTS SUCH AS LAWN FURNITURE AND TRASH CANS. TAKE
ACTION TO PROTECT YOURSELF. SEEK SHELTER IN A SUBSTANTIAL ENCLOSED
BUILDING