Severe Thunderstorm Warning 1, NWS Birmingham, AL

000 
WWUS54 KBMX 050811
SVSBMX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
210 AM CST FRI JAN 5 2007

ALC119-050845-
/O.CON.KBMX.SV.W.0001.000000T0000Z-070105T0845Z/
SUMTER AL-
210 AM CST FRI JAN 5 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 245 AM CST
FOR SUMTER COUNTY...

AT 210 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE 
EXTENDING FROM 20 MILES SOUTH OF CUBA TO EMELLE...OR ALONG A LINE 
EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF BUTLER TO 11 MILES NORTHWEST OF 
LIVINGSTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO 
GEIGER...LIVINGSTON...BELLAMY...GAINESVILLE AND EPE.

DOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED SOME WEAK ROTATION WITHIN THIS STORM.
WHILE NOT IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...A TORNADO MAY STILL DEVELOP. IF A
TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A
STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF
YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS. THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE SERIOUS
INJURY AND SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO PROPERTY.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 AM CST FRIDAY MORNING
FOR SOUTHERN ALABAMA.

LAT...LON 3231 8841 3234 8804 3248 8805 3252 8792
      3261 8790 3260 8806 3296 8823 3299 8831

$$

MBS/91

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1205 AM CST FRI JAN 5 2007

.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA IS INCREASING.

OVER THE PAST TWO HOURS...THE AIR HAS BEEN DESTABILIZING SOUTH
OF A TUSCALOOSA TO TROY LINE WITH INCREASING SURFACE TEMPERATURES
AND DEWPOINTS.  AT 10 PM CST...MERIDIAN MISSISSIPPI REPORTED A
SURFACE TEMPERATURE OF 69 DEGREES AND DEWPOINT OF 66 DEGREES.
LOCAL MESOSCALE MODELS INDICATE THAT LIFTED INDICES HAVE FALLEN TO
-2 ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.

WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND OBSERVED
SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS...BELIEVE THE DESTABILIZATION WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT.  INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE EXCESSIVE...LIFTED
INDICES AROUND -2 AND SURFACE BASED CAPES UP TO 500 J/KG...BUT
THE AIR SHOULD BE UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME SEVERE WEATHER.
STRONG LIFT WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD WILL
OVERCOME THE WEAKER INSTABILITY.

DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN HAZARD...THOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO
OR TWO MAY OCCUR AS WELL.  LOCATIONS SOUTH OF A MILLPORT TO TROY
LINE APPEAR TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS IN THE 2 TO
8 AM CST TIME FRAME WEST OF INTERSTATE 65...AND THE 5 TO 11 AM CST
TIME RANGE EAST OF INTERSTATE 65.  WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE
LINE PUSHED FARTHER NORTH...DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF MOISTURE
RETURN AND DESTABILIZATION.

MBS/91

&&

.AVIATION...DISCUSSION FOR 06Z TAFS.

RAIN HAS TEMPORARILY DIMINISHED ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL ALABAMA AND
TAFS REFLECT RAIN ARRIVING LATER. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
INTO SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AROUND 08Z AND PUSH EASTWARD. THERE COULD BE
SOME LOCALLY STRONG WINDS UP TO 40 KNOTS WITH LINE OF STORMS. RAIN
SHIELD WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA BEFORE 12Z. BACK EDGE OF
RAIN SHOULD ENTER WEST ALABAMA AROUND 14Z AND MOVE INTO EAST ALABAMA
BY 19Z. THERE COULD BE SOME RE-DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS TAF SITES KMGM AND KTOI DURING THE AFTERNOON.

MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 18Z...WITH LOCAL IFR
CEILINGS IN HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

58/ROSE

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.

&&

91/58

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1117 PM CST THU JAN 4 2007

ALZ011>015-017>050-051300-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
1117 PM CST THU JAN 4 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...OVERNIGHT.

SEVERE THREAT INCREASING ACROSS SOUTH ALABAMA. A LINE OF STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI AND INTO SOUTHWEST ALABAMA. THE LINE OF STORMS COULD
ENTER SUMTER AND MARENGO COUNTIES AS EARLY AS 1 AM CST. THE LINE
WILL THEN PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES THROUGH 6 AM CST.

THE THREAT AREA IS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM GEIGER IN
NORTHERN SUMTER COUNTY...EASTWARD TO MARION...MONTGOMERY...AND
CLAYTON. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...
BUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW MOVES ACROSS ALABAMA. THE AREA OF CONCERN IS ALONG AND EAST
OF A LINE FROM SELMA...TO ALEXANDER CITY...TO ROANOKE. THE MAIN
THREAT WILL BE WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH AND SMALL HAIL.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA ON SUNDAY. THE AIRMASS
WILL BE UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. THE THREAT AREA WILL BE
PRIMARILY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL MAY
BE REQUIRED TONIGHT.