Severe Thunderstorm Warning 45, NWS Bismarck, ND

000 
WWUS53 KBIS 212230
SVSBIS

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
530 PM CDT MON MAY 21 2007

NDC101-212245-
/O.CON.KBIS.SV.W.0045.000000T0000Z-070521T2245Z/
WARD ND-
530 PM CDT MON MAY 21 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 PM CDT
FOR CENTRAL WARD COUNTY...

AT 527 PM CDT...THE PUBLIC REPORTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LARGE DAMAGING HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR RICE LAKE...OR ABOUT 19 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MINOT...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  RURAL CENTRAL WARD COUNTY AROUND 540 PM CDT...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE DESTRUCTIVE HAIL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE...ALONG WITH DEADLY LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE
SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING AND
AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT
MONDAY EVENING FOR NORTH DAKOTA.

LAT...LON 4807 10186 4788 10171 4794 10132 4826 10132
      4838 10171

$$

ABELING

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
330 PM CDT MON MAY 21 2007

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
MAIN CONCERNS TONIGHT INVOLVE THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER. BIS
SPECIAL SOUNDING AT 17Z INDICATED CAPPING STILL PRESENT BUT WITH
CAPE OF CLOSE TO 2500 AT THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE OF 84. WITH SFC
COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH TO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY MID EVENING
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER THE MAIN CONCERN THIS EVENING.
CLOUDS AND COOL BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED OUT AS WARM FRONT PROGRESSED
NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO INITIATE ALONG COLD
FRONT AND PROGRESS EAST TONIGHT. LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS APPEAR
TO BE THE MAIN THREAT. SOME TRAINING OF THUNDERSTORMS A POSSIBILITY
FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIP TONIGHT...BUT WITH EASTWARD TRANSLATION OF
FRONTAL SYSTEM DONT ANTICIPATE FLASH FLOOD THREAT AT THIS TIME. AS
UPPER LOW SWINGS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY THINK THREAT A
WIDESPREAD RAINS WILL BLANKET WESTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
CWA... GENERALLY THE DRIEST AREAS OF THE REGION. COOL AND SHOWERY
WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH GENERALLY LOW
HEIGHTS ALOFT AND PROGRESSIVE FLOW.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
MODELS ARE IN A BIT OF DISARRAY AS THEY ATTEMPT TO HANDLE THE UPPER
WAVE DROPPING FROM SW CANADA INTO THE NW U.S. LATE THIS WEEK. THE
12Z GFS ACTUALLY SLOWS THE SYSTEM DOWN FROM PREVIOUS RUNS AND THEN
BRINGS IT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS A WEAKENING WAVE IN
INCREASINGLY ZONAL FLOW SUN INTO MON. HOWEVER...WE TRENDED OUR FCST
TO A BLEND OF THE 00Z AND 06Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF AS THEY WERE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT. EARLY ON THIS RESULTED IN COOLER AND POTENTIALLY WETTER
CONDITIONS THAN THE 12Z GFS WOULD SUGGEST...WITH 850MB TEMPS A FEW
DEG WARMER ON THE NEW MODEL. EITHER WAY THOUGH IT WILL BE A COOL
WEEKEND WITH 850MB TEMPS RANGING FROM 0 TO JUST BLO 10 C NO MATTER
WHICH FLAVOR YOU CHOOSE...BUT WITH TIMING OF THE COLDEST TEMPS VERY
MUCH DEPENDENT ON THE SPEED OF THE UPPER WAVE. IN FACT...IF OR WHEN
WE DO SEE PRECIP IT MAY BE DIFFICULT TO GET INTO THE 50S F. THE
ENSEMBLE GFS GUIDANCE SHOWS WELL THE MEDIOCRE CONFIDENCE WITH A
LARGE SPREAD IN THERMAL FIELDS DURING THE LONG TERM. OUR FCST IS
TRENDED TOWARD AND EVEN A BIT BELOW THE ENSEMBLE MEAN...BUT AGAIN
WITH ONLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE UNTIL BETTER CONTINUITY IS ACHIEVED IN
MODEL SOLUTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...
TSRA WILL ERUPT ALONG A COLD FRONT IN WESTERN ND THIS AFTERNOON
AND SPREAD EAST THRU THE EVENING. SOME STORMS ARE APT TO BE SEVERE
WITH DAMAGING SFC WINDS AND LARGE HAIL SFC AND ALOFT. ACTIVITY
SHOULD EXPAND IN COVERAGE AFT 00Z WITH A LARGE COMPLEX OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS LIKELY TAKING SHAPE OVERNIGHT IN CENTRAL ND. MVFR CIGS
AND VIS WILL LIKELY BE THE NORM WITH THIS ACTIVITY...BUT IT IS
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THAT IFR CONDITIONS WILL TAKE SHAPE AS THE
ACTIVITY PERSISTS INTO TUESDAY MORNING ALONG THE SLOW-MOVING FRONT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

WAA/CJS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
452 AM CDT MON MAY 21 2007

NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051-221000-
DIVIDE-BURKE-RENVILLE-BOTTINEAU-ROLETTE-WILLIAMS-MOUNTRAIL-WARD-
MCHENRY-PIERCE-MCKENZIE-DUNN-MERCER-OLIVER-MCLEAN-SHERIDAN-WELLS-
FOSTER-GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-STARK-MORTON-BURLEIGH-KIDDER-
STUTSMAN-SLOPE-HETTINGER-GRANT-BOWMAN-ADAMS-SIOUX-EMMONS-LOGAN-
LA MOURE-MCINTOSH-DICKEY-
452 AM CDT MON MAY 21 2007 /352 AM MDT MON MAY 21 2007/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOME
STORMS WILL LIKELY REACH SEVERE LIMITS...WITH LARGE HAIL AND
STRONG WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ON TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

JV