Severe Thunderstorm Warning 42, NWS Bismarck, ND

000 
WWUS53 KBIS 210752
SVSBIS

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
251 AM CDT MON MAY 21 2007

NDC053-210830-
/O.CON.KBIS.SV.W.0042.000000T0000Z-070521T0830Z/
MCKENZIE ND-
251 AM CDT MON MAY 21 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 330 AM
CDT(230 AM MDT) FOR NORTHERN MCKENZIE COUNTY...

AT 248 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE DAMAGING
HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 9 MILES WEST OF
SATHER DAM...OR ABOUT 35 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WILLISTON...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  7 MILES NORTHWEST OF SATHER DAM AROUND 155 AM MDT...  
  CARTWRIGHT AROUND 300 AM CDT...  
  CHARBONNEAU AROUND 315 AM CDT...
  ALEXANDER AROUND 320 AM CDT...
  6 MILES NORTHWEST OF RAWSON AROUND 325 AM CDT...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE HAIL...AND DEADLY LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE
SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING AND
AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

LAT...LON 4789 10404 4756 10403 4776 10303 4810 10309

$$

NH

000 
WWUS53 KBIS 210816
SVSBIS

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
316 AM CDT MON MAY 21 2007

NDC053-210830-
/O.CON.KBIS.SV.W.0042.000000T0000Z-070521T0830Z/
MCKENZIE ND-
316 AM CDT MON MAY 21 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 330 AM
CDT(230 AM MDT) FOR NORTHWESTERN MCKENZIE COUNTY...

AT 308 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR CHARBONNEAU...OR ABOUT 21 MILES
SOUTH OF WILLISTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  RURAL NORTHERN MCKENZIE COUNTY AROUND 330 AM CDT...

IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING 
WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY LIGHTNING CAN BE A 
KILLER. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO 
BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

LAT...LON 4789 10404 4769 10381 4789 10320 4806 10325
      4801 10370

$$

NH

000 
WWUS53 KBIS 210833
SVSBIS

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
332 AM CDT MON MAY 21 2007

NDC053-210842-
/O.EXP.KBIS.SV.W.0042.000000T0000Z-070521T0830Z/
MCKENZIE ND-
332 AM CDT MON MAY 21 2007

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN MCKENZIE COUNTY
EXPIRES AT 330 AM CDT(230 AM MDT)...

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM HAS WEAKENED AND NO LONGER POSES A 
SIGNIFICANT THREAT. HOWEVER...SMALL HAIL...HEAVY RAIN...AND 
DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 20 
MINUTES. 

LAT...LON 4789 10404 4769 10381 4789 10320 4806 10325
      4801 10370

$$

NH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
349 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2007

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

CURRENTLY...WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOWING UP NICELY ACROSS NORTHERN
SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SFC LOW OVER SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. AS SHORTWAVE
MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS MONTANA AND WYOMING EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO
INITIATE ACROSS MT/WY AND MOVE INTO WRN ND THIS EVENING. CLOUD COVER
WITH VERY COOL BOUNDARY LAYER WILL INHIBIT THUNDERSTORMS INITIALLY
ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ALTHOUGH AN ELEVATED STORM IS POSSIBLE
NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT THIS EVENING. WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD
BECOME MORE ACTIVE LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SURFACE LOW AND
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT SETTING
UP POTENTIAL FOR A PRECIP EVENT FOR THE REGION. AT THIS TIME FEEL
AROUND AN INCH TO 1.5 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL ND NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. WILL MAX TEMPS ACROSS THE WEST ON
WEST SIDE OF LOW WHERE HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET INTO THE 60S
MONDAY...TUESDAY...AND WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST MODELS HAVE BECOME A BIT MUDDLED TOWARDS THE
END OF NEXT WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. BOTH THE GFS AND EUROPEAN
MODELS WANT TO BRING ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY/SATURDAY AFTER THIS MID-WEEKS TROUGH LIFTS
NORTHEAST NORTH OF MINNESOTA. INCONSISTENCIES ABOUND THOUGH ON WHERE
THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK ALONG WITH TIMING ISSUES. HOWEVER...WITH
BOTH MODELS IN SOMEWHAT OF AGREEMENT...WENT AHEAD AND POPULATED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. LEFT THE
REMAINDER DRY FOR NOW. ALSO COOLED DAYTIME HIGHS AS WELL. DESPITE
WHERE THIS SECOND UPPER LEVEL FEATURE DECIDES TO RESIDE...NO GOOD
WARM-UP SEEMS TO BE ON THE HORIZON WITH BELOW NORMAL SEASONAL
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD BECOMING EVER MORE
LIKELY.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR AND IFR CIGS AND VIS ARE ONCE AGAIN PERSISTING OVER SOUTHWEST
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. NAM 925MB RH PROGS AGAIN
DOING A PRETTY DECENT JOB AT HANDLING THIS LOW STRATUS. LOOKS LIKE
TONIGHT WILL SEE A REPEAT WITH LOW CIGS RE-EXPANDING TO INCLUDE MUCH
OF WEST AND CENTRAL ND LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ISOLD TO
SCT TSRA WILL SPREAD INTO WEST AND CENTRAL ROUTES AS WELL TONIGHT.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS LOOKING TO BE OVER
THE WESTERN HALF OF ND LATE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

WAA/NH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
525 AM CDT SUN MAY 20 2007

NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051-211030-
DIVIDE-BURKE-RENVILLE-BOTTINEAU-ROLETTE-WILLIAMS-MOUNTRAIL-WARD-
MCHENRY-PIERCE-MCKENZIE-DUNN-MERCER-OLIVER-MCLEAN-SHERIDAN-WELLS-
FOSTER-GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-STARK-MORTON-BURLEIGH-KIDDER-
STUTSMAN-SLOPE-HETTINGER-GRANT-BOWMAN-ADAMS-SIOUX-EMMONS-LOGAN-
LA MOURE-MCINTOSH-DICKEY-
525 AM CDT SUN MAY 20 2007 /425 AM MDT SUN MAY 20 2007/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...AND A GOOD CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. SOME STORMS MAY REACH SEVERE LIMITS TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SOME
STORMS MAY REACH SEVERE LIMITS MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

JV