Severe Thunderstorm Warning 225, NWS Bismarck, ND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
327 PM CDT SUN JUL 15 2007

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
TEMPERATURES THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM...ALONG
WITH CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. BIG DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
NAM AND GFS TODAY...WILL COMPROMISE A BIT...BUT GENERALLY STAY
CLOSER TO THE GFS.

SATELLITE PICTURE SHOWS MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE...PRESSURE GRADIENT QUITE WEAK ACROSS THE
AREA WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. WEAK SHORT WAVE
STILL EXPECTED TO DROP OUT OF CANADA TONIGHT...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE IN THE NORTHERN
AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA. DECENT INSTABILITY AND GOOD SHEAR
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE THREAT FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS. MAIN SEVERE
THREAT WOULD BE LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS...MAINLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY ARE PROBLEMATIC. NAM BRINGS DOWN A QUITE
COLD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM INTO NORTH DAKOTA...WHEREAS THE GFS HAS A
MUCH WEAKER HIGH FARTHER TO THE NORTHEAST. MET GUIDANCE FOR BIS HAS
A HIGH OF 73...WHILE MAV HAS 93. WILL COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE
TWO...BUT LEAN TOWARD THE GFS. THE DIFFERENCE ALSO COMES INTO PLAY
FOR MONDAY NIGHT. GFS GENERATES SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN THE
EASTERN PART OF THE CWA ALONG THE BOUNDARY OF THE COOLER AIR. OF
COURSE...THE NAM DOES NOT HAVE THIS BECAUSE IT HAS THE BOUNDARY MUCH
FARTHER TO THE WEST. WENT WITH THE GFS ON THIS AND ADDED A SMALL
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN CWA.

NOT MUCH CHANGE NEEDED TO FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. KEPT
THE FORECAST DRY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO MID 90S. ONLY CHANGE
WAS AN EXPANSION OF THE LOW POPS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. GFS IS TRYING TO BREAK SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY
UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
MODELS CONTINUE TO BACK OFF ON THE EXTREME HEAT THAT WAS ONCE
PROGGED LATE NEXT WEEK OVER WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH THE
GFS SOLUTION BECOMING MORE ALIGNED WITH THE EUROPEAN MODEL IN
HOLDING THE MID/UPPER 90S AND TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES WELL OFF TO
OUR WEST. HAVE THUS CONTINUED THE TREND AND DECREASED DAYTIME MAX
TEMPERATURES AROUND 5 DEGREES OR SO ACROSS THE FA THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. REASONING IS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS BEING HELD AT BAY
OVER THE WESTERN US BY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST OVER
THE HUDSON BAY REGION. INSTEAD OF BROAD AND WARM UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE...WE HAVE A MORE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE AXIS WHICH DOES NOT
TEND TO BRING THE VERY EXTREME HEAT THAT A BROAD RIDGE AXIS WOULD
DO.

GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO BRING AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE
UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE THURSDAY DAYTIME FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GIVEN
THE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THIS FEATURE...HAVE INTRODUCED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE SOUTHERN FA 12-00Z THURS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...
LOW PRESSURE IN MONTANA MOVING INTO NORTH DAKOTA TODAY WILL SLIDE
SOUTH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES IN FROM CANADA. BOTH GFS AND
NAM SHOW LOW LEVEL RH PUSHING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT. NAM
CONTINUES TO BE MORE AGGRESSIVE PUSHING IT ALL THE WAY INTO WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA BY 12Z MONDAY...WITH THE GFS MORE CONSERVATIVE IN
HOLDING THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE LOW CIGS FROM A CROSBY TO BISMARCK
LINE. SEEMS THE GFS HANDLES THE SITUATION A BIT BETTER GIVEN
OBSERVATIONS NORTH AND EAST ATTM...SO HAVE LEANED THIS DIRECTION.
THUS SHOULD SEE MVFR CIGS MOVING INTO MOT BY 03-05Z AND JMS BY
04-06Z. BIS AND ISN MAY SEE SOME SCT MVFR CIGS...BUT FOR NOW HAVE
EXCLUDED MVFR BKN OR OVC FROM THESE TWO TAF SITES.

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

JF/NH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
444 AM CDT SUN JUL 15 2007

NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051-160945-
DIVIDE-BURKE-RENVILLE-BOTTINEAU-ROLETTE-WILLIAMS-MOUNTRAIL-WARD-
MCHENRY-PIERCE-MCKENZIE-DUNN-MERCER-OLIVER-MCLEAN-SHERIDAN-WELLS-
FOSTER-GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-STARK-MORTON-BURLEIGH-KIDDER-
STUTSMAN-SLOPE-HETTINGER-GRANT-BOWMAN-ADAMS-SIOUX-EMMONS-LOGAN-
LA MOURE-MCINTOSH-DICKEY-
444 AM CDT SUN JUL 15 2007 /344 AM MDT SUN JUL 15 2007/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

STILL LOOKING SOMEWHAT LIKE A REPEAT OF LAST FRIDAY EVENING...THE
NEXT WAVE OF ENERGY WILL MOVE INTO NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING. THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO INITIATE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED SO
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE HIGH BASED WITH THE PRIMARY
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT BEING DOWNBURST WINDS. A FEW ISOLATED LARGE
HAIL EVENTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. AT THIS TIME THE AREA MOST LIKELY
TO SEE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS ROUGHLY ALONG AND EAST
OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. IF THUNDERSTORMS DO DEVELOP IT WILL LIKELY
BE AFTER 6 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

AT THIS TIME WE ARE ALSO PREDICTING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON
MONDAY...AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND ONCE AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THE SKYWARN SPOTTER NETWORK MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING ACROSS
PARTS OF NORTH DAKOTA. SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT ALL DAMAGING WIND
AND LARGE HAIL REPORTS TO THE LOCAL NATION WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE
USING THE SEVERE WEATHER HOT LINE.

MEYER

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