Severe Thunderstorm Warning 138, NWS Bismarck, ND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
345 AM CDT THU JUN 21 2007

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED IN THE LAST HOUR OR TWO APPEARS ASSOCIATED
WITH H500 SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF WYOMING TOWARDS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ALONG THE H500 RIDGE. CURRENT SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM CDT FOR SOUTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA. THIS SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN LATER THIS MORNING AS IT
MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...THE NAM IS INDICATING
MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY IMPULSES FOLLOWING THIS LEADING WAVE. THE GFS
IS NOT SHOWING AN IMPULSE AS STRONG AS THE NAM. REGARDLESS...THE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
MET TODAY WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS INCREASING
INTO THE 60S...AS BROAD LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE FRONT RANGE OF
THE ROCKIES AND A COOL AND DRY SURFACE HIGH OVER WESTERN ONTARIO AND
MINNESOTA KEEP EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

THE H500 RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SEND ENERGY IMPULSES ACROSS THE
REGION IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWARD AND A LOW LEVEL NOCTURNAL
JET WILL DEVELOP EACH NIGHT. TONIGHT IT APPEARS THE SHORTWAVE
IMPULSES WILL AFFECT MAINLY WESTERN AND SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...AS
THE DRY SURFACE HIGH OVER MINNESOTA AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
INHIBITS LIFTING AND KEEPS LOWER DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN
NORTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

ON FRIDAY THE SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS EASTWARD AS THE BROAD LOW PRESSURE
IN THE WEST MOVES EAST OVER THE DAKOTAS. THIS WILL PROVIDE GOOD
LIFTING OVER THE STATE AS AFTERNOON CONVECTION OCCURS. HOWEVER...A
MID LEVEL THERMAL CAP BUILDS OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AS THE
H500 RIDGE STRENGTHENS AND ARCHES NORTHWARD INTO CANADA. NORTHERN
NORTH DAKOTA AND CANADA HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS
THIS AREA MAY NOT BE CAPPED. THE CAP BUILDS INTO THE STATE ON
SATURDAY...AND EXPECT NO THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SATURDAY AND HOT
AND HUMID CONDITIONS. SATURDAY NIGHT THERE IS A HINT THAT THE
SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND THE CAP MAY BE
WEAKENED HERE.

TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS WILL BE ON THE RISE THROUGH THE PERIOD
AND BY SATURDAY IT SHOULD BE QUITE HOT AND MUGGY.

.LONG TERM...CONTINUED UNSEASONABLY WARM WITH A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHERN ROUTES THROUGH 18Z WITH ONGOING
CONVECTION. A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALL ROUTES THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

JV/HW

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
515 AM CDT WED JUN 20 2007

NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>036-040>046-211015-
DIVIDE-BURKE-RENVILLE-BOTTINEAU-ROLETTE-WILLIAMS-MOUNTRAIL-WARD-
MCHENRY-PIERCE-MCKENZIE-DUNN-MERCER-OLIVER-MCLEAN-SHERIDAN-WELLS-
FOSTER-GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-STARK-MORTON-BURLEIGH-KIDDER-SLOPE-
HETTINGER-GRANT-BOWMAN-ADAMS-SIOUX-EMMONS-
515 AM CDT WED JUN 20 2007 /415 AM MDT WED JUN 20 2007/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER
THIS AFTERNOON...THEN A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT OVER ALL
OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY. AN
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH SEVERAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
AFFECTING THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND
AREAL EXTENT OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSHOWERS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

NDZ037-047-048-050-051-211015-
STUTSMAN-LOGAN-LA MOURE-MCINTOSH-DICKEY-
515 AM CDT WED JUN 20 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NORTH
DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER
THIS AFTERNOON...THEN A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT OVER ALL
OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

A SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR SMALL STREAMS AND
LOWLAND FLOODING. SEE THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENT FOR DETAILS.

A RIVER FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE JAMES RIVER NEAR
LUDDEN DAM AND THE JAMES RIVER AT LAMOURE. SEE THE LATEST FLOOD
STATEMENT FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY. AN
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH SEVERAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
AFFECTING THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND
AREAL EXTENT OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSHOWERS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

JV

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