Severe Thunderstorm Warning 133, NWS Bismarck, ND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
215 PM CDT WED JUN 20 2007

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
A SLOW MOVING PROGRESSIVE RIDGE WILL CRAWL ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS DURING THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SURGING NORTHWARD AND A LOW LEVEL NOCTURNAL
JET WILL DEVELOP EACH NIGHT. THIS BASICALLY ADDS UP TO EVENING AND
NIGHTTIME THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH WILL LIKELY DEVELOP INTO ONE OR
TWO MCS EACH NIGHT. LOCATIONS WILL DEPEND ON THE POSITION OF A QUASI
STATIONARY FRONT WHICH WILL LAY IN AN EAST/WEST ORIENTATION. LATER
IN THE FORECAST PERIOD CAPPING MAY BECOME A LIMITING FACTOR IN
SOME PARTS OF THE REGION.

TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS WILL BE ON THE RISE THROUGH THE PERIOD
AND BY SATURDAY IT SHOULD BE QUITE MUGGY.

.LONG TERM...HOT/HUMID AIR STILL SLATED THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN
RELIEF ARRIVES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH LOWER HUMIDITY. 12Z
GFS SLOWS THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY OVER BISMARCK NEAR
MIDNIGHT...WHEREAS THE PREVIOUS RUNS HAD IT PASSING THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. 12Z GFS FORECAST SOUNDING FOR 00Z MONDAY SHOWS A VERY
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE...HOWEVER A STRONG CAP IS ALSO EVIDENT FROM THE
SFC TO 650MB. MODIFYING THE SOUNDING WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 90S AND
DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 DOES WEAKEN THE CAP...BUT NOT COMPLETELY. THUS
WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHC DURING THE DAY AND CHC IN THE
EVENING/NIGHT WITH THE FRONT AND WEAKENING CAP. THE UPPER TROUGH
LAGS FAIRLY FAR BEHIND MAIN SURFACE FRONT AND DOESNT ARRIVE UNTIL
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. EXPECT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY BUT PROBABLY NOT SEVERE AS WARMEST AIR AND SURFACE FRONT WILL
HAVE PAST WELL EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. DRIER AND COOLER AIR MOVES
IN FOR MON/TUE...THEN A GRADUAL WARM UP ON WED/THU.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THE NEXT 24HRS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEAR MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE STATE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

RSL/KS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
515 AM CDT WED JUN 20 2007

NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>036-040>046-211015-
DIVIDE-BURKE-RENVILLE-BOTTINEAU-ROLETTE-WILLIAMS-MOUNTRAIL-WARD-
MCHENRY-PIERCE-MCKENZIE-DUNN-MERCER-OLIVER-MCLEAN-SHERIDAN-WELLS-
FOSTER-GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-STARK-MORTON-BURLEIGH-KIDDER-SLOPE-
HETTINGER-GRANT-BOWMAN-ADAMS-SIOUX-EMMONS-
515 AM CDT WED JUN 20 2007 /415 AM MDT WED JUN 20 2007/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER
THIS AFTERNOON...THEN A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT OVER ALL
OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY. AN
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH SEVERAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
AFFECTING THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND
AREAL EXTENT OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSHOWERS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

NDZ037-047-048-050-051-211015-
STUTSMAN-LOGAN-LA MOURE-MCINTOSH-DICKEY-
515 AM CDT WED JUN 20 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NORTH
DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER
THIS AFTERNOON...THEN A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT OVER ALL
OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

A SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR SMALL STREAMS AND
LOWLAND FLOODING. SEE THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENT FOR DETAILS.

A RIVER FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE JAMES RIVER NEAR
LUDDEN DAM AND THE JAMES RIVER AT LAMOURE. SEE THE LATEST FLOOD
STATEMENT FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY. AN
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH SEVERAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
AFFECTING THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND
AREAL EXTENT OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSHOWERS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

JV