Severe Thunderstorm Warning 119, NWS Bismarck, ND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
249 PM CDT SAT JUN 16 2007

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
ACTIVE NIGHT ON TAP AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD OUT OF SOUTH
DAKOTA INTO OUR STATE. UNSTABLE BUT CAPPED AIR SOUTH OF THE FRONT
WILL LIFT OVER THE FRONT ON THE WINGS OF A NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL
JET...THIS WILL BE THE MAIN MECHANISM FOR OUR FORECAST AREA...THUS
I EXPECT MOST OF OUR THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 10 PM AND 10
AM SUNDAY MORNING. OTHER ACTIVITY...INITIATED OFF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF MONTANA AND WYOMING MIGHT AFFECT OUR SOUTHWEST CORNER
BY LATE AFTERNOON.

A SECOND ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL
PART OF THE STATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE LOW AND COLD
FRONT PUSH THROUGH THE REGION.

AFTER THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSHOWERS MAY LINGER IN A REGIME OF
COLD UPPER LEVEL TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
AS THE NIGHT SHIFT INDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE LAST
FEW GFS AND EUROPEAN RUNS HAVE BECOME AS ONE...WITH A MUCH HIGHER
DEGREE OF AGREEABILITY OVER THE EXTENDED PERIOD THAN WHAT WAS
DEPICTED OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. EXITING SHORT WAVE WEDNESDAY WILL
BE REPLACED WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKES PLACE OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION. THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THEN SLIDES SLOWLY EAST TOWARDS THE GREAT PLAINS
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AND WILL BRING GRADUALLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES INTO THE REGION AS WE APPROACH THE WEEKEND.

TOUGH CALL ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALL FOUR DAYS OF THE LONG TERM.
RIDGE RIDER SHORT WAVES WILL BE DIFFICULT TO TIME AND PLACE...SO
FELT THE BEST FORECAST WAS TO LEAVE POPS/WEATHER AS IS...LEAVING
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONE AS WELL AS LEAVING WEATHER OUT WHERE WE HAD
DRY BEFORE.

&&

.AVIATION...
A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING IN
FROM MONTANA WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THIS
EVENING WEST...ADVECTING INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AROUND MIDNIGHT.
SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL BE SEVERE. VFR CIGS AND VIS EXPECTED FOR
REST OF TODAY AND THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING...WITH MVFR TO IFR CIGS
AND VIS ANTICIPATED IN HEAVIER THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. MODELS THEN
BRING IN A LARGE AREA OF LOW CIGS...AROUND 1500-2000 FT AGL...BEHIND
THE CONVECTION WEST AND CENTRAL LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING...SO HAVE TRENDED THE TAF FORECASTS IN THIS DIRECTION. MAY
YET SEE AN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL TODAY WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THE STORMS IN SD PUSHING
NORTH...AND CONVECTION OVER THE BIG HORNS OF MONTANA ADVECTING
EAST-NORTHEAST.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

RSL/NH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
517 AM CDT SAT JUN 16 2007

NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-171030-
DIVIDE-BURKE-RENVILLE-BOTTINEAU-ROLETTE-WILLIAMS-MOUNTRAIL-WARD-
MCHENRY-PIERCE-MCKENZIE-DUNN-MERCER-OLIVER-MCLEAN-SHERIDAN-WELLS-
FOSTER-
517 AM CDT SAT JUN 16 2007 /417 AM MDT SAT JUN 16 2007/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
SOME MAY BE SEVERE. HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

ON SUNDAY THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY
SEVERE. AN ACTIVE WEEK AHEAD WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NDZ031>037-040>048-050-051-171030-
GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-STARK-MORTON-BURLEIGH-KIDDER-STUTSMAN-
SLOPE-HETTINGER-GRANT-BOWMAN-ADAMS-SIOUX-EMMONS-LOGAN-LA MOURE-
MCINTOSH-DICKEY-
517 AM CDT SAT JUN 16 2007 /417 AM MDT SAT JUN 16 2007/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE.

A RIVER FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE JAMES RIVER NEAR LUDDEN
DAM. SEE THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENT FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

ON SUNDAY THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY
SEVERE. AN ACTIVE WEEK AHEAD WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

JV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1155 PM CDT SAT JUN 16 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1115 PM     HAIL             3 N MANDAN              46.87N 100.89W
06/16/2007  E0.88 INCH       MORTON             ND   PUBLIC

            PEA AND NICKEL SIZE HAIL ENDED 1140 PM CDT.

&&

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