Flash Flood Watch 3, NWS Bismarck, ND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
345 AM CDT SUN JUN 17 2007

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
ACTIVE MORNING WITH SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH CURRENTLY IN EFFECT
UNTIL 6 AM CDT FOR MUCH OF THE WARNING AREA. THUNDERSTORMS MAIN
THREAT SEEMS TO BE HEAVY RAIN AS SEVERE ELEMENTS SLOWING DOWN. MOST
STORMS NOW HAVE MOVED NORTH AND EAST INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
STATE. THESE STORMS FORMED AROUND H975 ALONG THE NOSE OF A LOW LEVEL
JET MOVING NORTHWARD TOWARDS MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN. MEANWHILE OTHER
SEVERE STORMS WERE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN MONTANA THESE STORMS
WERE BEHIND A SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA...BUT AHEAD OF A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DRIVING THIS CONVECTION. THE SHORTWAVE
IS PROGGED TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS SASKATCHEWAN BUT WILL
LIKELY CLIP NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

TODAY THE SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS.
STRONG SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL REACH WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA OF SUSTAINED AT 30 MPH IN THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES
THIS AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN MONTANA WILL MAKE ITS WAY EASTWARD INTO
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING. THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL KEEP A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. HEAVY RAIN WILL AGAIN BE A
THREAT THIS EVENING OVER THE JAMESTOWN AREA AS THE SECOND LOW/TROUGH
REACHES THIS AREA AT PRIME DAYTIME HEATING AROUND 6 PM.

VERY WINDY BEHIND THIS SECOND LOW TONIGHT AND ON MONDAY. THE CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS ON MONDAY AS THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH OF THE
SECOND SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

AFTER THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSHOWERS MAY LINGER IN A REGIME OF COLD
UPPER LEVEL TEMPERATURES TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG WITH A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A CHANCE FOR STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA TODAY
FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST. THIS WILL BRING
DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR. IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS VICINITY THE
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 6 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NDZ048-051.
&&

JV

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
502 AM CDT SUN JUN 17 2007

NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>047-050-181015-
DIVIDE-BURKE-RENVILLE-BOTTINEAU-ROLETTE-WILLIAMS-MOUNTRAIL-WARD-
MCHENRY-PIERCE-MCKENZIE-DUNN-MERCER-OLIVER-MCLEAN-SHERIDAN-WELLS-
FOSTER-GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-STARK-MORTON-BURLEIGH-KIDDER-
STUTSMAN-SLOPE-HETTINGER-GRANT-BOWMAN-ADAMS-SIOUX-EMMONS-LOGAN-
MCINTOSH-
502 AM CDT SUN JUN 17 2007 /402 AM MDT SUN JUN 17 2007/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOME
MAY BE SEVERE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

WINDY ON MONDAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 35 MPH. THERE IS A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY OVER SOME PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NDZ048-051-181015-
LA MOURE-DICKEY-
502 AM CDT SUN JUN 17 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NORTH
DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A WIND ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON FROM 1 PM TO 6 PM CDT FOR
STRONG SOUTH WINDS. OTHERWISE THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOME MAY BE SEVERE.

A RIVER FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE JAMES RIVER NEAR LUDDEN
DAM. SEE THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENT FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

WINDY ON MONDAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 35 MPH. THERE IS A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY OVER SOME PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

JV

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