Severe Thunderstorm Warning 221, NWS Binghamton, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
305 PM EDT FRI AUG 3 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN
THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION LATER TONIGHT WITH A COOLER AND DRIER
AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN WILL BEGIN THE WORK WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT JUST WEST OF LAKE ONTARIO AND ERIE THIS
AFTN WITH PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AIDING TSRA DEVELOPMENT IN THE HOT
AND HUMID AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. WIND FIELDS NOT THAT
STRONG, SO SEVERE REPORTS HAVE BEEN LIMITED THUS FAR TO LARGE
HAIL. AS THE FRONT MOVES SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE EVENING, ACTIVITY
WILL END ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL NYS BY EARLY EVENING AND TWD
MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE WYOMING VALLEY AND POCONOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BEHIND THE FRONT...VERY PLEASANT WEATHER SETS UP FOR THE WEEKEND
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL FEATURE MOSTLY SUNNY/MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. BUT MUCH LOWER
DEW POINTS FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S WILL FEEL LIKE QUITE A
CHANGE FROM THE LAST FEW DAYS.

SUNDAY WILL START MOSTLY SUNNY...THE SOME CLDS INCREASE MAINLY
ACROSS SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE FA DURING THE AFTERNOON AS MID
LEVEL WAA INCREASES. STILL EXPECT A DRY DAY AS THE BEST ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND MOISTURE REMAINS WEST OF FA THROUGH 00Z MON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LARGE SCALE PATTERN IS MORE ZONAL AT UPPER LEVELS OVER THE
NORTHERN U.S. THRU THE PERIOD WITH VARIOUS SFC FEATURES CROSSING
SRN CANADA AND AFFECTING THE NORTHERN TIER STATES. CONFIDENCE ON TIMING
OF THESE SYSTEMS THIS FAR IS NOT HIGH. AT THIS POINT...LOOKS LIKE
BEST PRECIP CHCS ARE TO OCCUR SOMETIME SUNDAY NIGHT, THEN AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY. HAVE INDICATED JUST LOW CHC POPS ATTM SINCE TIMING IS
LIKELY TO CHANGE. TEMPS LOOK TO REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
WITH LOW TO MID 80S PREVAILING FOR MAXES.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NUMEROUS TSRA THIS AFTN/EVNG WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS. IMPVMNT
LATER THIS EVENING AS ACTIVITY MOVS OUT AND DIES DOWN. FOG LIKELY
TNGT...MVFR MOST SPOTS BUT DENSER AT ELM WHERE IFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS ARE XPCTD BETWEEN 08-12Z. VFR ALL SITES ON SAT. WINDS
GNRLY WRLY 10-15 KTS THIS AFTN BUT G35 PSBL NEAR STRONGER TSRA. NW
WINDS ARND 10 KTS ON SAT.

ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM LATER SUNDAY MAY BRIEFLY LOWER CIGS AND
VISBY IN SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JML
NEAR TERM...JML
SHORT TERM...JML
LONG TERM...RHB
AVIATION...RHB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
121 PM EDT FRI AUG 3 2007

NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062-PAZ038>040-072-
041730-
NORTHERN ONEIDA-YATES-SENECA-SOUTHERN CAYUGA-ONONDAGA-STEUBEN-
SCHUYLER-CHEMUNG-TOMPKINS-MADISON-SOUTHERN ONEIDA-CORTLAND-CHENANGO-
OTSEGO-TIOGA-BROOME-DELAWARE-SULLIVAN-BRADFORD-SUSQUEHANNA-
NORTHERN WAYNE-SOUTHERN WAYNE-
121 PM EDT FRI AUG 3 2007

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 560 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW
YORK...SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TODAY.

PAZ043-044-047-048-041730-
WYOMING-LACKAWANNA-LUZERNE-PIKE-
121 PM EDT FRI AUG 3 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS
EVENING...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH A FEW BECOMING SEVERE. A
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS NOT EXPECTED. THE MAIN THREAT
WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE EXITING THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
343 PM EDT FRI AUG 03 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0343 PM     HAIL             VESTAL                  42.08N 76.05W
08/03/2007  E0.75 INCH       BROOME             NY   PUBLIC

&&

JAB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
357 PM EDT FRI AUG 03 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0335 PM     HAIL             TIOGA CENTER            42.07N 76.35W
08/03/2007  E0.75 INCH       TIOGA              NY   AMATEUR RADIO

0340 PM     HAIL             APALACHIN               42.07N 76.17W
08/03/2007  E1.00 INCH       TIOGA              NY   PUBLIC

0340 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BRIDGEWATER             42.88N 75.25W
08/03/2007                   ONEIDA             NY   PUBLIC

            TREES DOWN

&&

JAB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
407 PM EDT FRI AUG 3 2007

NYZ023-032030-
SCHUYLER NY-
407 PM EDT FRI AUG 3 2007

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN SCHUYLER COUNTY...

* AT 404 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL...AND VERY
  HEAVY RAIN.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR TYRONE...AND MOVING EAST
  AT 10 MPH.

* THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  READING CENTER AT 425 PM EDT...
  HECTOR AND BURDETT AT 430 PM EDT...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE
INDOORS IMMEDIATELY THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY AND BECOME SEVERE WITH
LARGE HAIL.